Does Madeleine have the right to be found?

[Eleanor]

they could have been looking for the girl that Madeleine replaced in this theory.  If the parents lost a child they might have to lose the deceased child somehow.

This is possible.

[Eleanor]

So you have an incomplete theory which can't be assessed.

No I don't.  There are some things that I cannot say, for fear of them being Libellous.

However, it is just a Theory.

[Eleanor]

The Replacement Child theorem is low probability but not impossible.

Interesting as it may be, it seems to be off-topic here.

Thanks for that at least, SIL

Not Off Topic if it gave Madeleine the right to be found.

[ShiningInLuz]

If you can't assemble evidence to support a theory, then it is no more than an idea.  IMO

The RC theory can be tested at each and every stage. That is why it is viable.

Naming names is libel, as the RC theory cannot be proved by a forum such as this.

[Eleanor]

If you can't assemble evidence to support a theory, then it is no more than an idea.  IMO

Amaral seems to have managed it.  However, Libel is frowned on in France, and this Forum won't have it.

[Robittybob1]

So you have an incomplete theory which can't be assessed.

Theories always get difficult when it comes to naming the theoretical suspect.  I was always under the impression that a theory wasn't libellous but that might not be accepted here on the forum.
Like if Eleanor was to suggest who took Madeleine as a substitute child it could well be a family who was at PdL along with the McCanns.
In the thread that I started the other week I was suggesting a child may have died in the atrium of block G4 and there were only 3 families there in block G4 who had kids around Madeleine's age.  One family had access to a car that I know of.  One family has never said boo since that day.
One family with connections and money.  You wouldn't want to name them just in case they were to take court action.  I don't blame Eleanor for being careful.

[Eleanor]

Theories always get difficult when it comes to naming the theoretical suspect.  I was always under the impression that a theory wasn't libellous but that might not be accepted here on the forum.
Like if Eleanor was to suggest who took Madeleine as a substitute child it could well be a family who was at PdL along with the McCanns.
In the thread that I started the other week I was suggesting a child may have died in the atrium of block G4 and there were only 3 families there in block G4 who had kids around Madeleine's age.  One family had access to a car that I know of.  One family has never said boo since that day.
One family with connections and money.  You wouldn't want to name them just in case they were to take court action.  I don't blame Eleanor for being careful.

Thank You, Rob.

[Robittybob1]

The RC theory can be tested at each and every stage. That is why it is viable.

Naming names is libel, as the RC theory cannot be proved by a forum such as this.

Would you ever tackle it on your blog?  You seem to be allowed a high degree of Freedom of Speech in Portugal as seen by the SC ruling.

[ShiningInLuz]

Would you ever tackle it on your blog?  You seem to be allowed a high degree of Freedom of Speech in Portugal as seen by the SC ruling.

The part post-snatch can be tackled on this forum, and it fits with the thread title.

As for identifying named individuals in Portugal, the law does not permit me.

[Brietta]

The fact is that there was evidence in the above case showing what happened. It wasn't child traffickers as such, it was a woman with her mother and stepfather who gave a very strange reason for taking the child. It was to use her as a replacement for the woman's own child in a paternity test. She didn't want her child to be associated with her father. It doesn't seem to have occurred to her that tests would show the child wasn't hers, either. Anyway, they got jailed.
https://metro.co.uk/2016/10/21/three-jailed-for-kidnapping-a-toddler-from-the-street-to-use-her-dna-6205578/

As one does when involved in such an alleged domestic dispute.

• Plan your route from France to Serbia:  Drive from Belgrade to Paris
   16 h 36 min  Approximate fuel cost: £180 - £270   1,117.2 miles  https://www.rome2rio.com/map/Serbia/France
• Having made the journey crossing borders and using ferries
• Drive around until you spot a suitable child
• Making sure she matches the details on the passport you have brought with you
• Snatch the child from the street
• Terrorising the child
• Terrorising and injuring her mother who had attempted to foil the abduction of her child
• Leaving pursuing on foot witnesses behind to head for the nearest border to exit the country
• When realising that the authorities are on your tail attempting to dump the child as though she were a stolen dog ... out of the car window!!! and over a hedge
• Cruel thieves in getaway car throw stolen dog from window onto busy road
  Passers-by in Staffordshire, where the jaw-dropping incident happened, watched on in horror
  4 JUN 2018
  The stolen dog was thrown out of a black car at the mini-roundabout linking Park Lane, St David's Way and Mill Hayes Road at 1pm on Friday. The vehicle was being driven by a man and there was a woman with black hair in the passenger seat. https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/cruel-thieves-getaway-car-lob-14741622
• Only the almost unbelievable textbook reaction of the authorities saved that little girl from God knows what fate

Words fail me that you cannot seem to grasp how wrong that all is ... or what was to happen to that little girl once she had served her alleged purpose.

Thank you for the link anyway https://metro.co.uk/2016/10/21/three-jailed-for-kidnapping-a-toddler-from-the-street-to-use-her-dna-6205578/ detailing their sentence and the lengths these three miscreants went to in their attempt to abduct this little girl.

• They then changed the child’s hair, dressed her in separate clothes they had brought with them, and drove towards the Serbian border in March 2015.
• The three defendants reportedly targeted the girl as she looked similar to Emeline’s child ...
• During the trial, they claimed the girl’s mother had agreed for them to ‘borrow’ the girl, but analysis of phone records showed there was never any contact.
• A lawyer for parents Mirjana Prenkovic and Damir Damir Prenkovic said claims they were somehow in on the plot ‘deserve no comment,’ adding: ‘From the point of view of the victims, no punishment is sufficient for someone who tries to harm your child.’

This was not fiction as in a Harrison Ford movie ... it was real life and it happened to innocent unsuspecting parents and to an innocent child.

What does that remind you of?
Just as the little Serbian girl was plucked unlawfully from the street it is my opinion that Madeleine was plucked unlawfully from her bed.
These three French nationals were prepared to travel over a thousand miles to find a child who suited their purpose ... yet the notion Madeleine could have been spirited away in like circumstances is risible to some.

In my opinion had that little girl been taken over the border her parents would not have seen her again and in my opinion this case illustrates exactly why I think Madeleine is still out there somewhere and deserves to be looked for.

What were these people ultimately going to do with two children?

[Snowgirl]

It’s obvious  that the theory put forward about Madeliene being taken to replace another child was based on that incident while ignoring the facts . There was no signs of an intruder in apartment 5a . To my mind anyone on the lookout for such a replacement child would not leave everything neat and tidy ,even closing the child gate  behind him/her for one thing

[Eleanor]

It’s obvious  that the theory put forward about Madeliene being taken to replace another child was based on that incident while ignoring the facts . There was no signs of an intruder in apartment 5a . To my mind anyone on the lookout for such a replacement child would not leave everything neat and tidy ,even closing the child gate  behind him/her for one thing

My Theory has nothing at all to do with that incident.  There is no similarity beyond the fact that the passport of one child can be used for another child.  It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work that one out.

[slartibartfast]

So to get this straight, this is a good theory because it means Madeleine is still alive?

[Brietta]

It’s obvious  that the theory put forward about Madeliene being taken to replace another child was based on that incident while ignoring the facts . There was no signs of an intruder in apartment 5a . To my mind anyone on the lookout for such a replacement child would not leave everything neat and tidy ,even closing the child gate  behind him/her for one thing

In my opinion no-one had to wait for the abduction of a child in 2015 to give some serious consideration to the circumstances surrounding Madeleine's disappearance in 2007 or to speculate on the supposed motive behind it.

The Serbian police wasted not a second in their reaction to reports of the abduction which had occurred and instituted an immediate response which succeeded in preventing the little girl being taken out of the country.

In my opinion by the time the alarm was raised in Portugal it is highly likely that Madeleine if not already over the border in another country was well on her way to be taken there.

That the immediate concern among senior Portuguese investigators gives me the impression that there was too much focus not so much on the recovery of Madeleine but on apprehending a perpetrator ... or seeking to apportion doubt and blame where none existed.
For example ... Diario of the Noticias: "Headline: a badly told story" http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/7106086.stm

If the three abductors had snatched the little Serbian girl from her mother outside her house and there were no witnesses to see it ... would that have made her less of a kidnapped child than she was because her abduction was witnessed and the police were able to get a helicopter into the air immediately as a result.

That Jane Tanner witnessed something of grave importance is indisputable.  The emergence of Dr Totman several years down the line seems to indicate that the Portuguese police were remiss in investigating the significance of her sighting appropriately.
So what other evidence did they miss?

[jassi]

In my opinion no-one had to wait for the abduction of a child in 2015 to give some serious consideration to the circumstances surrounding Madeleine's disappearance in 2007 or to speculate on the supposed motive behind it.

The Serbian police wasted not a second in their reaction to reports of the abduction which had occurred and instituted an immediate response which succeeded in preventing the little girl being taken out of the country.

In my opinion by the time the alarm was raised in Portugal it is highly likely that Madeleine if not already over the border in another country was well on her way to be taken there.

That the immediate concern among senior Portuguese investigators gives me the impression that there was too much focus not so much on the recovery of Madeleine but on apprehending a perpetrator ... or seeking to apportion doubt and blame where none existed.
For example ... Diario of the Noticias: "Headline: a badly told story" http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/7106086.stm

If the three abductors had snatched the little Serbian girl from her mother outside her house and there were no witnesses to see it ... would that have made her less of a kidnapped child than she was because her abduction was witnessed and the police were able to get a helicopter into the air immediately as a result.

That Jane Tanner witnessed something of grave importance is indisputable.  The emergence of Dr Totman several years down the line seems to indicate that the Portuguese police were remiss in investigating the significance of her sighting appropriately.
So what other evidence did they miss?

I'm not certain that OG would agree.