What if the Smith family had come forward on the 4th of May?

[alphonse]

No one has definite evidence of anything other than MM disappeared.  It all comes down to what weight individuals give to the various pieces of info. 

I dismiss anything to do with sedation either by KM or abductor as I have some understanding of the science of sleep and know stages 3 and 4 are difficult to wake from.  I uploaded the youtube vid of an asleep SM carried by GM off the EasyJet flight oblivious to all the noise around him.  I don't buy into the cadaver dogs at all due to the problems with contamination.  LCN DNA testing is as good as useless due to the small sample sizes which are often degraded and incomplete producing the "inconclusive results".  I see the McCanns/T7 as unreliable witnesses due to their inevitable embarrassment, guilt and shame about the "childcare arrangements".  I think the shutter was in all probability 'staged' by either KM or abductor so in effect a 'red herring'.  I think Mrs Fenn is a credible and reliable independent witness with regard to what she heard on 1st May.  I think 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' are in all probability 'red herrings' due to the fact OC run a night creche for holidaymakers scattered all over PDL.  I think the S&R dogs were reliable in scenting MM carried away by the abductor who entered the unlocked patio door and exited the front door with an alive but sleeping MM.

I don't believe any local person, OC employee or assoicate or organised criminal gang was involved.  I think it was another holiday maker.   

I might be wrong about all of the above, some of the above or none of the above but unless I see something compelling to change my mind on any of the above its now pretty much fixed as in my own mind I've worked out what happened and who was responsible and all the pieces of the puzzle fit together like a jigsaw or piece of flat pack furniture! 

   A good read. Thank you, Holly, for sharing your thoughts on the case. I think the perp is likely to be a resident in Luz or a worker linked to tourism . Just a hunch.

[ShiningInLuz]

I'm sure there would have been a resolution.  There would have been footage of the man carrying the child as he passed the apartments where the Smiths were staying.  They may have picked up a track for Madeleine in that area of town and worked out which house she was taken to.

As the cameras at Estrela point inwards, there would have been footage only if he entered/exited the complex.

[ShiningInLuz]

I would cross check all of those statements made by SIL.  I noticed some that might not stand scrutiny.

No doubt you will care to elaborate on your opinion.

[Robittybob1]

No doubt you will care to elaborate on your opinion.

As I said there would need to be cross checking done first.

[ShiningInLuz]

As I said there would need to be cross checking done first.

OK.  What that tells me is you don't know if your assertion was right or wrong.

So not very helpful at all.

[pathfinder73]

Imo both 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' are red herrings so on this basis no. 

I place a lot of weight on the S&R dogs neither of which scented to the above locations. 

I don't understand what imo amounts to a fixation with these sightings.  Especially given that OC operated a night creche whereby parents put their children to bed, in what sounds like a dormitory sort of arrangement, and then collected them later.  PDL was/is a self-contained hol destination so the chances are families with small children holidaying for a week will not bother with a hire car hence we see men walking round with babes in arms.

SY have investigated the night creche. Smithman didn't exist until he was seen with a Madeleine clone who disappeared close by. Smithman disappeared like MM on 3 May 2007.  Nothing to see here - move on 

[Holly Goodhead]

SY have investigated the night creche. Smithman didn't exist until he was seen with a Madeleine clone who disappeared close by. Smithman disappeared like MM on 3 May 2007.  Nothing to see here - move on 

Please explain?

[Anthro]

Alphonse: “I think the perp is likely to be a resident in Luz or a worker linked to tourism . Just a hunch.”

Or, in my view, someone who has built his entire adult life as a survival and scouting expert:

- sexually assaulting children participating in scouting camps and activities all over Europe
- managed to mislead and evade law enforcers for 20 years in a sexual assault and murder case he currently is in jail for and awaiting trial.
- having disappeared for 5 months before being caught, using his skills to survive in a forest in another country and eventually deported to his own country to stand trial.
- having knowledge that his predatory profile will not put him under suspicion in Madeleine’s disappearance.
- resembles an e-fit of a person of interest who has never been traced since her disappearance.

[Anthro]

I apologise, this should be on the other thread trending.

[G-Unit]

No one has definite evidence of anything other than MM disappeared.  It all comes down to what weight individuals give to the various pieces of info. 

I dismiss anything to do with sedation either by KM or abductor as I have some understanding of the science of sleep and know stages 3 and 4 are difficult to wake from.  I uploaded the youtube vid of an asleep SM carried by GM off the EasyJet flight oblivious to all the noise around him.  I don't buy into the cadaver dogs at all due to the problems with contamination.  LCN DNA testing is as good as useless due to the small sample sizes which are often degraded and incomplete producing the "inconclusive results".  I see the McCanns/T7 as unreliable witnesses due to their inevitable embarrassment, guilt and shame about the "childcare arrangements".  I think the shutter was in all probability 'staged' by either KM or abductor so in effect a 'red herring'.  I think Mrs Fenn is a credible and reliable independent witness with regard to what she heard on 1st May.  I think 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' are in all probability 'red herrings' due to the fact OC run a night creche for holidaymakers scattered all over PDL.  I think the S&R dogs were reliable in scenting MM carried away by the abductor who entered the unlocked patio door and exited the front door with an alive but sleeping MM.

I don't believe any local person, OC employee or assoicate or organised criminal gang was involved.  I think it was another holiday maker.   

I might be wrong about all of the above, some of the above or none of the above but unless I see something compelling to change my mind on any of the above its now pretty much fixed as in my own mind I've worked out what happened and who was responsible and all the pieces of the puzzle fit together like a jigsaw or piece of flat pack furniture! 

Have you ever done one of those very difficult jigsaws where all the pieces are exactly the same? They fit wherever you put them, but don't always make up the correct picture.

[alphonse]

Alphonse: “I think the perp is likely to be a resident in Luz or a worker linked to tourism . Just a hunch.”

Or, in my view, someone who has built his entire adult life as a survival and scouting expert:

- sexually assaulting children participating in scouting camps and activities all over Europe
- managed to mislead and evade law enforcers for 20 years in a sexual assault and murder case he currently is in jail for and awaiting trial.
- having disappeared for 5 months before being caught, using his skills to survive in a forest in another country and eventually deported to his own country to stand trial.
- having knowledge that his predatory profile will not put him under suspicion in Madeleine’s disappearance.
- resembles an e-fit of a person of interest who has never been traced since her disappearance.

   Was this the guy detained in Spain?

[Holly Goodhead]

Have you ever done one of those very difficult jigsaws where all the pieces are exactly the same? They fit wherever you put them, but don't always make up the correct picture.

Tbh the last jigsaw I did was probably something like Jack and the Beanstalk which my mum no doubt helped me with.  She would always say 'ok we start off looking for the corners and then the sides' and that's how I approach my crime busting on the forum!  My motto is 'keep it simple, stupid' aka KISS principle!

[pathfinder73]

Please explain?

Totman/Tannerman was confirmed from night creche records. Smithman was not so he also disappeared on 3 May 2007. The Madeleine clone child he was carrying was barefoot. MM was barefoot when she left apartment 5A.

[Anthro]

Alphonse, see the thread ‘how dna caught a suspected killer also linked to Madeleine’. On page 1 there are photo’s of the e-fit.

[Robittybob1]

OK.  What that tells me is you don't know if your assertion was right or wrong.

So not very helpful at all.

Everything is open for debate.  You say the camera at "Stellar" was pointing inwards, it might be that way now but where was it pointing on the night of the 3rd?
If it was just inwards why did GA regret that the PJ didn't check the CCTV footage early enough.
Shouldn't he have just said well it wouldn't have made any difference as the camera was pointing the wrong way?