Author Topic: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.  (Read 417 times)

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Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2020, 01:58:01 PM »
You could just miss those bits out.

LOL That could end up with missing rather a lot of contacts and contacts of contacts, depending on hidden lifestyles.

Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2020, 04:34:25 PM »
Good point from Sam Coates

So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.

And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.

And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met


Hmm.

Online mrswah

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Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2020, 05:32:00 PM »
Good point from Sam Coates

So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.

And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.

And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met


Hmm.


No point in me doing this at the moment, then.

I take the dog out and go to the supermarket. Oh, and occasionally, go to the chemist to collect my meds.

I pass people, say hello to them, etc, but I don't know who they are, unless thy are my neighbours.

I can't see any point in doing this, unless you go to work, or meet people you know.

« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:44:33 PM by John »

Online Robittybob1

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Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2020, 05:37:57 PM »
LOL That could end up with missing rather a lot of contacts and contacts of contacts, depending on hidden lifestyles.
I mean you can admit to having contacts but only in the private interview situation so that it stays out of your diary.
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Online Robittybob1

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Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2020, 05:39:13 PM »
Good point from Sam Coates

So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.

And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.

And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met


Hmm.
I'm sure they won't do that unless you test positive.
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Online mrswah

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Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2020, 05:41:12 PM »
I think the TTI concept needs a bit of, erm, refining.

People who have no symptoms of coronavirus must be prepared from June 1 to “do their bit” by self-isolating for 14 days if told they could be a carrier, the Health Secretary warned today.

Writing exclusively in the Evening Standard , Matt Hancock revealed the move to “test and trace” will impose a new social responsibility on the public to stay at home for two weeks even if they feel well.


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-healthy-people-isolate-tracked-a4448376.html

There's no way in hell you can expect people just out of months of confinement to agree to 2 more weeks, extended according to however many more alerts crop up. And how will people get back to work?

IMO:

1. "Soft" tracking will inevitably miss some, but it's better than nothing at this stage.

- Even then, tracers MUST ask the right questions re known / potential symptoms (not always starting with fever & cough); tracking needs to cover realistic pre-symptomatic phase (not necessarily just tracking contacts from a "couple of days" prior to onset; and further quarantine needs to be based on latest info as to continued infectious state post-symptomatic phase (can be more than a few days).

- If a contact gets an alert, they could be anywhere at the time. Trackers need to trace the contacts until they can get home (commuting, picking up kids, shopping...).

2. Testing needs to be ramped up: getting tests to the potential patient when the result is most likely to show positive (seemingly testing too soon can lead to false negatives;, ramping up the lab capabilities to get test results back as soon as possible; and ditto for contacts.

That means a massive amount of tests that can be turned around as quickly as possible to reduce the number of people who may need to self-isolate and how long for.


I agree that , after being locked down for two months (at least), the last thing people will want is self isolation.

Mind you, it's people who have been working who are the most likely to be traced. The rest of us haven't been meeting anyone. if we have, we have just passed them in the street or in the supermarket, and we wont have their mobile phone numbers.

I can't help thinking that our government doesn't think enough about the practicalities of what they propose. It's good in theory----but are people going to do it? 

Same with social distancing.  If they reduced it from 2 metres to 1 metre, many more businesses would be able to open. I bet they will do that in the end!

Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2020, 06:15:51 PM »
I'm sure they won't do that unless you test positive.

If you ring up with a hacking cough, or any other suspicious symptom, the household will have to isolate (ideally Mr /Ms cough self isolates, unless it's a small kid, and the others self-quarantine)... but if the test result takes a week to process? And if negative, everyone can go back to "normal" life... then there's another alert a few days later, and you start all over again.

That seems likely to happen, but if the turnaround time is fast, less time will be spent in pointless quarantine.

Online Robittybob1

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Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2020, 08:38:23 PM »
If you ring up with a hacking cough, or any other suspicious symptom, the household will have to isolate (ideally Mr /Ms cough self isolates, unless it's a small kid, and the others self-quarantine)... but if the test result takes a week to process? And if negative, everyone can go back to "normal" life... then there's another alert a few days later, and you start all over again.

That seems likely to happen, but if the turnaround time is fast, less time will be spent in pointless quarantine.
In NZ they were saying the incidence of the seasonal flu was right down because people were isolating themselves.
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Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2020, 09:07:59 PM »
In NZ they were saying the incidence of the seasonal flu was right down because people were isolating themselves.

Where? In NZ?

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Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #40 on: May 26, 2020, 06:18:31 PM »

Offline Carana

Re: The Government's mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic.
« Reply #41 on: May 26, 2020, 06:20:35 PM »
The UK’s public health response to covid-19
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1932 (Published 15 May 2020)

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932