How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[AnneGuedes]

There are a number of reasons that might explain an innocent man not presenting himself to the police  ...  the most fundemental one,  being,   that some people simply don't want to get  'involved'   

The Smiths got "involved", there's no indication they hesitated before calling the PJ who sent them to the gardaï.
What they said, the description of a little 4yrs old pale and medium blond girl, was much more compromising than for an innocent father or brother or uncle to say he was the one.

[Redblossom]

None being the abductor ? This would exceed probability laws.
Either you eliminate one, and the most reasonable would be to suppress Tanner one (since nobody saw her seeing), or you keep Tanner one but change both time and orientation.
Or you conclude the carrier wasn't an abductor.

I'm not concluding anything Anne. IMO both were probably not Madeleine carriers, the timings do not make sense, plus the blase way they just wandered around,just my opinion.

I had thought once perhaps Tanners man was someone going to the night creche but thought it a bit too late at night, but not impossible. Or he was going to the local pharmacy or health centre with an ill child, going by the way they were carrying them, but I think those facilities were south rather than east. For all we know, said carriers had been to see a friend or relative nearby and were just going home, we just dont know and I completely agree with Icabs post above. It makes alot of sense. And re the Smiths, coming forward as a witness is not the same as coming forward as an innocent carrier.

[AnneGuedes]

I'm not concluding anything Anne. IMO both were probably not Madeleine carriers, the timings do not make sense, plus the blase way they just wandered around,just my opinion.

I had thought once perhaps Tanners man was someone going to the night creche but thought it a bit too late at night, but not impossible. Or he was going to the local pharmacy or health centre with an ill child, going by the way they were carrying them, but I think those facilities were south rather than east. For all we know, said carriers had been to see a friend or relative nearby and were just going home, we just dont know and I completely agree with Icabs post above. It makes alot of sense. And re the Smiths, coming forward as a witness is not the same as coming forward as an innocent carrier.

There no pharmacy in the direction taken by Tanner carrier and if he had gone to the creche he would have gone down Francisco Gentil Martins.
There's a health center at the corner of Escola Primaria and 25 de Abril, but I think it was closed at night. Eventually a father trying this health center, seeing it was closed and calling a taxi ?
But imo another bare feet, light pyjama, dark blond hair up to shoulders, white skin, 4yrs oldish, 1m high, deep sleep in windy, chilly PDL night, carried by an innocent father who just doesn't want to be involved whereas a family is desperate, well...

[icabodcrane]

There no pharmacy in the direction taken by Tanner carrier and if he had gone to the creche he would have gone down Francisco Gentil Martins.
There's a health center at the corner of Escola Primaria and 25 de Abril, but I think it was closed at night. Eventually a father trying this health center, seeing it was closed and calling a taxi ?
But imo another bare feet, light pyjama, dark blond hair up to shoulders, white skin, 4yrs oldish, 1m high, deep sleep in windy, chilly PDL night, carried by an innocent father who just doesn't want to be involved whereas a family is desperate, well...

I take your point Anne,  but do you think it is possible that the man Jane saw may have been an innocent carrier who did not present himself to the police for his own reasons  ?

Is it possible, do you think,  that the man the Smiths saw was a different man, and that he  was   the abductor  ?

[Redblossom]

Anne, I dont know, perhaps the man freaked out with the thought of being suspected in a case  that hit  the worldwide media the next day and for days weeks and months later onwards? We dont know when and if anyone was asked to come  forward those early days. Perhaps he was one of the many people who are not slaves to the TV and even if such an appeal was made he missed it.
We just dont know.
Going on, one other reason to think the Smiths man was not the abductor, was one of the Smiths saying the child had trousers on and long sleeves, according to the Mccanns Madeleine was wearing short sleeves and shorts

Edited , muddled up my last sentence/meaning

[Benice]

That is an excellent point. Plus, if it was the same man, who originally had walked east, would have had to walk back along the same path he was seen to get to where the Smiths saw him, I think, thus risking beng seen agan.

The descriptions of the man the Smiths saw do not match Tanner's sketch, which was done by a police artist,specifically the hair, Smiths said short brown hair, Tanner said black and longer, also Tanner said dark skinned/swarthy, the Smiths said caucasian/light skinned

IIRC Jayne Tanner didn't see the man's face and gave no description of it in her statements.
   
I think the differences in the hair are minimal  -   brown or black, and hair which was not long  i.e.- as in not down his back, but ending at the neck.     The point JT was trying to make about the hair was that it wasn't layered - in her opinion, all hairs being the same length - but still ending in the neck.

They are not major differences IMO.

[icabodcrane]

IIRC Jayne Tanner didn't see the man's face and gave no description of it in her statements.
   
I think the differences in the hair are minimal  -   brown or black, and hair which was not long  i.e.- as in not down his back, but ending at the neck.     The point JT was trying to make about the hair was that it wasn't layered - in her opinion, all hairs being the same length - but still ending in the neck.

They are not major differences IMO.

You think the man Jane saw and the man the Smiths saw almost an hour later were one and the same   (  the abductor ) ?

[Benice]

There no pharmacy in the direction taken by Tanner carrier and if he had gone to the creche he would have gone down Francisco Gentil Martins.
There's a health center at the corner of Escola Primaria and 25 de Abril, but I think it was closed at night. Eventually a father trying this health center, seeing it was closed and calling a taxi ?
But imo another bare feet, light pyjama, dark blond hair up to shoulders, white skin, 4yrs oldish, 1m high, deep sleep in windy, chilly PDL night, carried by an innocent father who just doesn't want to be involved whereas a family is desperate, well...

If he was going to the Creche, or had collected his daughter from it,  then surely the Creche would have had a record of that.

[AnneGuedes]

I take your point Anne,  but do you think it is possible that the man Jane saw may have been an innocent carrier who did not present himself to the police for his own reasons  ?

Is it possible, do you think,  that the man the Smiths saw was a different man, and that he  was   the abductor  ?

Icabodcrane, I don't know if any of these men was an abductor, that's why I always call them "carrier".
The Tanner carrier seems odder than the Smith one : he crosses a junction without turning his head (cars might come from behind), he carries the child (of which she sees only both legs) like a fireman a victim and Jane in fact is transparent for 2 persons who aren't transparent for her. Had she described the normal carrying position, I would think she had some kind of hallucination or made a confusion with another night.
About the Smith, they are 3 to testify more or less the same, Mrs Smith confirming her husband. Aoife who notices buttons on the side of pants, said the little girl could be Madeleine. The details the others gave match with Madeleine. I think the probability she wasn't Madeleine is very tiny.
Between the two carried children, if we have to chose one as being likely Madeleine who will hesitate ?
But if Redblossom is right and none of these carriers was abducting, then when and how was Madeleine removed from the G5A ? Between 21h30 and 22h and by car ? Jane crossed the car park at 21:35/40 and Russell around 21:45... Lucky guy(s) !

[Redblossom]

IIRC Jayne Tanner didn't see the man's face and gave no description of it in her statements.
   
I think the differences in the hair are minimal  -   brown or black, and hair which was not long  i.e.- as in not down his back, but ending at the neck.     The point JT was trying to make about the hair was that it wasn't layered - in her opinion, all hairs being the same length - but still ending in the neck.

They are not major differences IMO.

They are IMO

dark skinned individual? Here

Dark skinned individual, male sex, aged between 35-40, ...snip

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JANE-TANNER.htm

 

Portuguese page

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P1/01_VOLUME_Ia_Page_47.jpg

Also hair was longer at the back, Smiths said short and one said fuller on top, different IMO, and no one said his hair was way down his back, ! but the Mccanns DID misrepresent all this in their documentary

There is no way the Smiths descriptions in a million years could be depicted in a documentary which was designed as a reconstruction to bring forward new leads so shoddily and inaccurately, by showing a man with a nape necked BOB


!


And from JTs rogatry, no way is this short hair but if it was, pray tell why her police sketch artist produced what she produced



Reply    “But, I mean, I think, so the things that I’m happy, that are still in my head, that still stick in my head is the hair and it was longer, it was sort of longish and, erm, I don’t know how to (inaudible), but each, each, almost the hair was long, the bits of hair were long, so it was long into the neck, you know, sort of in, when people have a number one or whatever at the back and it’s shaved, not shaved up, but, you know, sort of layered up, this was more long into the neck, so sort of long, each, each individual hair was long, erm, and dark, it was sort of quite dark and glossy, that sticks in my head

[AnneGuedes]

according to the Mccanns Madeleine was wearing short sleeves and shorts

How could Jane T see the lace bottom of shorts, it the child was lying as on the sketch ?

[Benice]

You think the man Jane saw and the man the Smiths saw almost an hour later were one and the same   (  the abductor ) ?

It would be much easier if they weren't the same person, as the time delay presents questions which wouldn't exist but for the Smith sighting.   However, the similarities between the two descriptions are far too many IMO for it to be two different people with two different children.   The fact that the Smiths knew nothing about the JT description when they gave theirs is also very pertinent - and especially that both thought the man didn't look like a tourist, and both noticed the child's bare feet.

[AnneGuedes]

Anne, I dont know, perhaps the man freaked out with the thought of being suspected in a case  that hit  the worldwide media the next day and for days weeks and months later onwards?

Everything's possible, I suppose. This was Carana's hypothesis. I don't find it plausible. Empathy with a father losing his child is easier when you're a father with a child of the same age. Why would a normal father normally carrying his normal child in a normal night freak out ?
The only hypothesis I see, if we are to follow the Smiths but discard your freaking out father, would be a local guy who found Madeleine searching for her parents, tried to help her but somehow scared her and suffocated her accidentally trying to stop her screaming.
It sounds likely to me and I have thought of it from the very beginning. No abduction, just a sad accident.
The implication is that Eddie's alerts were r...
Also I always wondered why the McCanns rejected any hypothesis of this kind. I do have an idea why though.

[Redblossom]

How could Jane T see the lace bottom of shorts, it the child was lying as on the sketch ?

Why does the police sketch show pants right down to the ankles, never mind the colour or design?

They were shorts, even long shorts would ride up I agree, Ive always said Jane Tanners description was a bit too detailed for the time she actually observed which was a few seconds  and in the dusk and at the distance  to come out with such sharp details as she did about the man and the childs clothing,
Height, build, description of hair, skin, clothing colour and fabric and style, whether his trousers were creased or not,type of shoes, height of heels, childs pyjama colour, pattern, frills on bottom etc, is this possible? i dont know

[Redblossom]

It would be much easier if they weren't the same person, as the time delay presents questions which wouldn't exist but for the Smith sighting.   However, the similarities between the two descriptions are far too many IMO for it to be two different people with two different children.   The fact that the Smiths knew nothing about the JT description when they gave theirs is also very pertinent - and especially that both thought the man didn't look like a tourist, and both noticed the child's bare feet.

Well I suppose there are many people who live in PDL who are not tourists but do carry their own children for a variety of reasons, if both seeing bare feet of a child  is your evidence they were one and the same, sorry, thats weak
On balance, there are more dissimilarities than similarities , all posted by  me on this thread above, including the long sleeved Smith girl
 >@@(*&)

Unless that WAS Madeleine and the Mccanns lied about what she was wearing that COLD night once Gerry, if he was the carrier, knew he had been spotted by them? Possible? Or too conspiratorial?