How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[icabodcrane]

Following on from a discussion on another thread,  why is it thought by some,  including the McCanns themselves,  that Jane and the Smiths probably saw the same man ?

Is it more likely that there two men seen carrying a child that night,  and if it is which of them was more likely to have been the abductor  ? 

[AnneGuedes]

The two carriers were merged after 2 years, and even then the Smith one was adjusted to the Tanner one.
Reasons for this delay are obvious, one of them I personally find legitimate : Martin Smith thought his carrier could be Mr McCann, a sort of a pain in the neck though Mr McCann looks a bit like everybody, no offence as you would say.
The "official" story of wandering during 45 minutes with Madeleine on his arms then against his shoulder is effectively very implausible.
But, I think Jane T saw a carrier and I don't doubt that the 9 Smith saw one too.
How can we conciliate this ? This is the question (imo).

[John]

This could be a very interesting thread Icabodcrane as so many myths have been created on the back of these sightings.   

[faithlilly]

A further question would be if the carrier was the same person would he have risked carrying the child through the village after he must have known ( the half hourly checks ) that the alarm would have been raised ?

[Redblossom]

A further question would be if the carrier was the same person would he have risked carrying the child through the village after he must have known ( the half hourly checks ) that the alarm would have been raised ?

That is an excellent point. Plus, if it was the same man, who originally had walked east, would have had to walk back along the same path he was seen to get to where the Smiths saw him, I think, thus risking beng seen agan.

The descriptions of the man the Smiths saw do not match Tanner's sketch, which was done by a police artist,specifically the hair, Smiths said short brown hair, Tanner said black and longer, also Tanner said dark skinned/swarthy, the Smiths said caucasian/light skinned

[DCI]

Why have neither, ever come forward?

Couldn't the child have been passed to another, so as not to attract attention?.
Could that be why there is a difference in times of sightings?

After all they were well organised, and seemed to know the area well!

[icabodcrane]

I  think it is unlikely that the man Jane saw, and the man the Smiths saw were one and the same

It seems implausible to me that an abductor would be carrying a  ( still sleeping )  child through the streets of PDL almost an hour after he had snatched her from her bed

In her book, though,  Kate dismisses the 45 minute lapse in the two sightings as insignificant  :

"Who knows why ther was a forty-five-minute gap between the two sightings, or where this man might have been inbetween ? I long ago stopped trying to come up with answers because I don't think I need to"

I don't think that view is justified.  In order to believe the man the Smiths saw was the same man Jane had seen almost an hour before,  there  would have to be a plausible explanation for the time lapse  ...  and a plausible explanation for the abductor not using it  to make his escape

[AnneGuedes]

A further question would be if the carrier was the same person would he have risked carrying the child through the village after he must have known ( the half hourly checks ) that the alarm would have been raised ?

Very right, Faithlilly ! The two carriers have something in common, apart from not being in a hurry, they don't mind to be seen. Tanner one does'nt look right nor left before crossing Francisco GM, Smith one could eventually have gone down steps (I think) on the left, just before the Escola primaria narrows.

[faithlilly]

Why have neither, ever come forward?

Couldn't the child have been passed to another, so as not to attract attention?.
Could that be why there is a difference in times of sightings?

After all they were well organised, and seemed to know the area well!

But to walk through the village when you know people will, in all probability, be out searching ?

[Redblossom]

Why have neither, ever come forward?

Couldn't the child have been passed to another, so as not to attract attention?.
Could that be why there is a difference in times of sightings?

After all they were well organised, and seemed to know the area well!

They couldn't have been that well organised if risking AND being spotted twice! And taking three quarters of an hour to disappear. What happened to the car theory? IMO there is no substantial evidence to connect the two. Either one or none were the abductor, not both

[DCI]

But to walk through the village when you know people will, in all probability, be out searching ?

But the alarm wasn't raised till after the Smith sighting, so who would be searching?

[AnneGuedes]

But the alarm wasn't raised till after the Smith sighting, so who would be searching?

Faithlilly noticed very pertinently he had no mean to anticipate when the abduction would be discovered.

[faithlilly]

But the alarm wasn't raised till after the Smith sighting, so who would be searching?

But the abductor couldn't have known that. If he had watched the McCans and had known the checks were every half hour, he would have assumed the alarm had already been raised.

[AnneGuedes]

They couldn't have been that well organised if risking AND being spotted twice! And taking three quarters of an hour to disappear. What happened to the car theory? IMO there is no substantial evidence to connect the two. Either one or none were the abductor, not both

None being the abductor ? This would exceed probability laws.
Either you eliminate one, and the most reasonable would be to suppress Tanner one (since nobody saw her seeing), or you keep Tanner one but change both time and orientation.
Or you conclude the carrier wasn't an abductor.

[icabodcrane]

Why have neither, ever come forward?

Couldn't the child have been passed to another, so as not to attract attention?.
Could that be why there is a difference in times of sightings?

After all they were well organised, and seemed to know the area well!

Kate, in her book, also references the fact that no father has  come forward to say it was him and his child who was there that night

I don't go along with the leap in reasoning that if the man didn't come forward then he is probably an abductor

There are a number of reasons that might explain an innocent man not presenting himself to the police  ...  the most fundemental one,  being,   that some people simply don't want to get  'involved'