How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[Mo Stache]

I have no idea why the McCanns related the man Gail Cooper saw to the man Jane Tanner saw ...  that's why I asked the question

Any ideas ?

No, I can't as yet think of any.

How likely do you think it is that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man?

[icabodcrane]

No, I can't as yet think of any.

How likely do you think it is that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man?

I think it unlikely

I just  think that if the man Jane saw  was the abductor, then he would have been long gone before the Smiths made their sighting

[Lace]

I think it unlikely

I just  think that if the man Jane saw  was the abductor, then he would have been long gone before the Smiths made their sighting

When he saw Jane Tanner he could have lay low to see if the alarm would be raised,  it wasn't, so he knew he was ok to carry on down to where maybe he was meeting someone.

[icabodcrane]

When he saw Jane Tanner he could have lay low to see if the alarm would be raised,  it wasn't, so he knew he was ok to carry on down to where maybe he was meeting someone.

I don't think that's likely either Lace,  he would have known the alarm would be raised at  some  point, and the more time that passed the more imminent it became   ...  waiting for nearly an hour and then, somehow feeling it was  'safer'  to move again just doesn't make sense

[Lace]

It could be the meeting time with someone else was 10 o'clock.

He knew they checked every half hour,   he waited until Gerry did his check then took Madeleine.   Saw Jane Tanner thought he had better hide out of sight for a bit to see what would happen.   Nothing happened,  he carried on down to the meeting spot.

[icabodcrane]

It could be the meeting time with someone else was 10 o'clock.

He knew they checked every half hour,   he waited until Gerry did his check then took Madeleine.   Saw Jane Tanner thought he had better hide out of sight for a bit to see what would happen.   Nothing happened,  he carried on down to the meeting spot.

I just can't see it

If he knew checks were being made every half hour then he would know one was due at 9.30pm.  He would have expected the alarm to be raised at that point  (  he could not have expected Matthew Oldfield to make the inadequate check that he did  )   

[Lace]

He probably didn't expect Matthew to do any check,   he saw Gerry leaving and most probably thought there wouldn't be another check until quarter to ten,  cutting it fine to get to the meeting spot.

[icabodcrane]

He probably didn't expect Matthew to do any check,   he saw Gerry leaving and most probably thought there wouldn't be another check until quarter to ten,  cutting it fine to get to the meeting spot.

And why would this accomplice he was meeting not be there until after 10pm  ? 

Surely any 'meeting'  would be arranged with precision to enable as quick a get-away as possible 

[Chinagirl]

I agree with your comments Mo but all the same, Mr Smith was adamant at one time that the man he saw was Gerry McCann.  As length of hair is one of the primary things we notice about someone surely he couldn't have got that so terribly wrong?  (John)

Smith was NOT "adamant ...... that the man he saw was Gerry McCann."  He was only 60% to 80% sure - a long way from 'adamant."

[ferryman]

I agree with your comments Mo but all the same, Mr Smith was adamant at one time that the man he saw was Gerry McCann.  As length of hair is one of the primary things we notice about someone surely he couldn't have got that so terribly wrong?  (John)

Smith was NOT "adamant ...... that the man he saw was Gerry McCann."  He was only 60% to 80% sure - a long way from 'adamant."

And his feelings then are probably vastly different from his feelings now ...

[faithlilly]

And his feelings then are probably vastly different from his feelings now ...

How could you possibly know that ? 

[AnneGuedes]

And his feelings then are probably vastly different from his feelings now ...

Vastly ?
Would he now, according to your feelings, be 60/80% unsure ? ;)

[Benice]

I agree with your comments Mo but all the same, Mr Smith was adamant at one time that the man he saw was Gerry McCann.  As length of hair is one of the primary things we notice about someone surely he couldn't have got that so terribly wrong?  (John)

Smith was NOT "adamant ...... that the man he saw was Gerry McCann."  He was only 60% to 80% sure - a long way from 'adamant."

It was Amaral who said Smith was ''sure'' it was Gerry -  in his book.

[AnneGuedes]

If Mr Smith had been 100% sure, some kind of confrontation would have been organized.
Even so he was ready to come back and to be submitted to a parade or whatever.

[sadie]

I don't think that's likely either Lace,  he would have known the alarm would be raised at  some  point, and the more time that passed the more imminent it became   ...  waiting for nearly an hour and then, somehow feeling it was  'safer'  to move again just doesn't make sense

Icabod You are totally ignoring sadies theory which at the time you read it, you said that you accepted as a possibility, or words to that affect.


Icabod

Re: sadies theory
« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2013, 01:06:32 AM »QuoteI can't pick any holes in your theory sadie

It is  thought through  and well researched  ...  there's nothing to say it didn't happen just as you suggest

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1327.15


If this theory is correct, then the getaway car buzzed off after realizing that the abduction had been witnessed by Jane Tanner ... leaving Bundleman in the lurch

In circumstances like that it is likely that bundleman would hide away, not knowing what to do ... or ....
.... in the theory it was suggested that a staff member was used for the lifting of Madeleine.  Maybe in desperation, nowhere to go, he was visiting that helper, a member of staff who did the lifting?

When the Smiths saw the man carrying the little girl, he could likely have just come from the Staff quarters which were, just out of sight, about 50 metres up the very same road.   
The very place that someone on the 3A's claimed a scream had come from  UGH


So it is quite likely that the Smiths man and bundleman are one and the same