How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[Mrs. B]

If Mr Smith had been 100% sure, some kind of confrontation would have been organized.
Even so he was ready to come back and to be submitted to a parade or whatever.

How would a "confrontation" be of use to anyone? Mr. Smith, after having presumably seen daily news, including photos of Madeleine's parents, as they were in EVERY newspaper, on EVERY news channel all over the world, for months on end. Only when the McCanns went back to the UK & he saw Gerry carrying a sleeping child down the steps of an aircraft did he notice that it "looked" like the person he'd seen that night. His 60-80% "sure" is based purely on mannerism, i.e. "way of carrying" - Mr. Smith admits this freely himself in his police statement.

I am basing that on his mannerism in the way he carried the child off the plane.

ETA Link http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

[AnneGuedes]

How would a "confrontation" be of use to anyone? Mr. Smith, after having presumably seen daily news, including photos of Madeleine's parents, as they were in EVERY newspaper, on EVERY news channel all over the world, for months on end. Only when the McCanns went back to the UK & he saw Gerry carrying a sleeping child down the steps of an aircraft did he notice that it "looked" like the person he'd seen that night. His 60-80% "sure" is based purely on mannerism, i.e. "way of carrying" - Mr. Smith admits this freely himself in his police statement.

I am basing that on his mannerism in the way he carried the child off the plane.

ETA Link http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

I said "some kind of confrontation", not the face to face between the 3 members of the tapas group and Mr Murat.
"He adds that he did not hold the child in a comfortable position, suggesting [the carrying] not being habitual."
Obviously it is this suggested "not being habitual" carrying that would/should have tried to be re-enacted. Had it discarded Mr McCann and hopefully cleared the interesting feeling of Mr Smith about, as he tried to express it, the way of carrying, a big step forward would have been done.
But the PJ rejected the offer of Mr Smith.

[Lace]

And why would this accomplice he was meeting not be there until after 10pm  ? 

Surely any 'meeting'  would be arranged with precision to enable as quick a get-away as possible

Time limit maybe?

If there was no alert to the abduction and they would soon be out of the country,   then why would they worry?

[Benice]

I said "some kind of confrontation", not the face to face between the 3 members of the tapas group and Mr Murat.
"He adds that he did not hold the child in a comfortable position, suggesting [the carrying] not being habitual."
Obviously it is this suggested "not being habitual" carrying that would/should have tried to be re-enacted. Had it discarded Mr McCann and hopefully cleared the interesting feeling of Mr Smith about, as he tried to express it, the way of carrying, a big step forward would have been done.
But the PJ rejected the offer of Mr Smith.

Personally Anne, I think  Mr Smith would have quite naturally pricked up his ears at the mention of the McCanns on the news and so paid it particular attention.   The way Gerry was coming down the airplane steps carrying his son obviously reminded him of the way the man he saw in PdL was carrying a child.    He then put 2 and 2 together and made 5.     If Sean had NOT been asleep  - and had been carried down in a completely different way then I don't think Mr Smith would have made the connection which he did.   Other members of the Smith family didn't agree with him - although Amaral fails to mention that in his book.

Quote from Amarals book

In Ireland, the Smiths are watching the BBC news, which is broadcasting the event. For them, it's a shock: that person, they recognise him. That way of carrying his child, that way of walking...It's the man they saw at around 10pm on May 3rd, with a little girl, who seemed to be deeply asleep, in his arms.

This image, brings back with a jolt, that of the man they encountered in the streets of Vila da Luz, on the evening of Madeleine's disappearance. It's as if the scene is repeating itself ....Mr Smith thinking he's hallucinating, sees the same report on other channels, ITV and Sky News. From that moment, he is sure: the man they came across that night was Gerald McCann. Of that there is very little doubt. Upset by the implications of this discovery, he alerts the police and waits to be called back by those in charge of the investigation.
unquote

[AnneGuedes]

Personally Anne, I think  Mr Smith would have quite naturally pricked up his ears at the mention of the McCanns on the news and so paid it particular attention.   The way Gerry was coming down the airplane steps carrying his son obviously reminded him of the way the man he saw in PdL was carrying a child.    He then put 2 and 2 together and made 5.     If Sean had NOT been asleep  - and had been carried down in a completely different way then I don't think Mr Smith would have made the connection which he did.   Other members of the Smith family didn't agree with him - although Amaral fails to mention that in his book.

I don't find it fair, Benice, to deny to Mr Smith the "I believe that 2 and 2 are 4 and that 4 and 4 are 8" of Don Giovanni and to insinuate he's a kind of Leporello.
I hope you're not suggesting that Mr Smith had already and consciously that "suspicion" on his mind and was expecting an opportunity to deliver it.
Mrs Smith agreed with him.
Of course if Mr McCann's son hadn't been so deeply asleep, Mr Smith's memory wouldn't have been jogged. This is exactly the point.

[Benice]

I don't find it fair, Benice, to deny to Mr Smith the "I believe that 2 and 2 are 4 and that 4 and 4 are 8" of Don Giovanni and to insinuate he's a kind of Leporello.
I hope you're not suggesting that Mr Smith had already and consciously that "suspicion" on his mind and was expecting an opportunity to deliver it.
Mrs Smith agreed with him.
Of course if Mr McCann's son hadn't been so deeply asleep, Mr Smith's memory wouldn't have been jogged. This is exactly the point.

No I'm not making any such suggestions.

The fact remains that it wasn't Gerry himself that brought back a memory to Mr Smith.   It was the manner in which he was carrying his child that was familiar to him.  And because it revived a picture in his mind, he then went on from that to thinking it might actually have been Gerry.  Although never did he say it was more than a possibility.

However, Amaral insists it was Gerry they recognised - and that simply isn't the case.  As someone else has pointed out, Gerry's picture and videos of him had been all over the news and media for months - and yet not once during all that time did Mr Smith (or any of his family) think he was the same man they saw in PdL.
IMO.



 

[AnneGuedes]

No I'm not making any such suggestions.

The fact remains that it wasn't Gerry himself that brought back a memory to Mr Smith.   It was the manner in which he was carrying his child that was familiar to him.  And because it revived a picture in his mind, he then went on from that to thinking it might actually have been Gerry.  Although never did he say it was more than a possibility.

However, Amaral insists it was Gerry they recognised - and that simply isn't the case.  As someone else has pointed out, Gerry's picture and videos of him had been all over the news and media for months - and yet not once during all that time did Mr Smith (or any of his family) think he was the same man they saw in PdL.
IMO.



 

I'm pleased you're not suggesting Mr Smith had some kind of parti pris. I never suggested Mr McCann jogged Mr Smith's memory. Mr McCann's face is banal, hence difficult to remember.
Is it because the carrier's face wasn't characteristic that all the Smiths said they wouldn't recognize him ? Or is it because they actually didn't see his face ? 
The way of carrying was "unusual" or "uncomfortable". This has been analysed before, without many results. Nobody found nothing of this kind in Mr McCann's way to carry his son. So what was it that Mr Smith didn't express well ?

[Mrs. B]

I said "some kind of confrontation", not the face to face between the 3 members of the tapas group and Mr Murat.
"He adds that he did not hold the child in a comfortable position, suggesting [the carrying] not being habitual."
Obviously it is this suggested "not being habitual" carrying that would/should have tried to be re-enacted. Had it discarded Mr McCann and hopefully cleared the interesting feeling of Mr Smith about, as he tried to express it, the way of carrying, a big step forward would have been done.
But the PJ rejected the offer of Mr Smith.

Do you consider "way of carrying" an identifiable mannerism in a person? I'm quite certain police don't. Never heard of anyone being identified e.g. by the way they carry their shopping bags from the supermarket. It's a ridiculous notion, as far as I'm concerned. And that's the ONLY identifying feature Mr. Smith bases his 60-80% estimate on. Nothing else, just the "way of carrying".

[Lace]

The majority of parents carry their child like that.

[AnneGuedes]

Do you consider "way of carrying" an identifiable mannerism in a person? I'm quite certain police don't. Never heard of anyone being identified e.g. by the way they carry their shopping bags from the supermarket. It's a ridiculous notion, as far as I'm concerned. And that's the ONLY identifying feature Mr. Smith bases his 60-80% estimate on. Nothing else, just the "way of carrying".

Why do you think Mr Smith spent 3 days and nights before going to the Gardaï, Mrs B ?  He's the reputation of a very decent man, not a fool !
Btw the carrier wasn't suspected to carry a shopping bag. A puppet ?

[Mrs. B]

Way of carrying is not an identifying feature of a person, it's as simple as that, it never has and never will be.

[AnneGuedes]

Way of carrying is not an identifying feature of a person, it's as simple as that, it never has and never will be.

This is why Mr Smith could be only 60/80% sure in identifying the carrier.
Had a re-enactment helped Mr Smith to determine what jogged his memory ? It is very possible and it's a pity the PJ neglected Mr Smith's offer, because there was certainly some important detail there, one of those where the devil adores to hide.

[Mrs. B]

I simply don't agree, what would they have done? A parade of men carrying sleeping children down steps from an aircraft, without their heads being shown? As previously pointed out, there is hardly any other way TO carry a sleeping child down steps.

[AnneGuedes]

I simply don't agree, what would they have done? A parade of men carrying sleeping children down steps from an aircraft, without their heads being shown? As previously pointed out, there is hardly any other way TO carry a sleeping child down steps.

Not down steps, of course. Down Escola Primaria.
Btw, on the pictures, Mrs McCann holds the bannister, whereas Mr McCann doesn't.

[Mrs. B]

I said SLEEPING child. Apart from that, see any big differences "carrying" wise here?