So if the abduction occurred at 9.15pm lets look at the movements.

[John]

A thin door separating the father from the abductor, the first not hearing the beating heart of the second, not smelling his sweat.. doesn't it sound Enid Blyton?

Fiction or true life, these things do happen.  Even Gerry in the reconstruction admits that he might well have disturbed the abductor while he was actually in the apartment.

[John]

Ok thats a fair point
She couldnt have known, for all she knew Gerry was en route when he stopped to have the chat with Jez

A very valid point.  Jane was not to know when she saw and passed Gerry and Jez whether the former had been to the apartment by that stage.

She was also not to know that neither of them failed to spot bundleman.

[Redblossom]

Fiction or true life, these things do happen.  Even Gerry in the reconstruction admits that he might well have disturbed the abductor while he was actually in the apartment.

I dont remember that bit

[Redblossom]

A very valid point.  Jane was not to know when she saw and passed Gerry and Jez whether the former had been to the apartment by that stage.

She was also not to know that neither of them failed to spot bundleman.

Yes, but how does any of that matter? As to the abductor nearly being caught?

[John]

An abduction at around 9.15pm is the only possible scenario which fits with the known facts and indeed, evidence.

Gerry actually saw Madeleine when he did the check at 9.10pm so that is our starting point.  Matthew did a later check at 9.30pm but did not have sight with Madeleine.  When Kate did the next check at 10.05pm Madeleine was gone.   It is interesting to note that had it not been for the slamming door or the waving curtains that Madeleine's disappearance might not have been detected until even much later.

Gerry's observation that the bedroom door was open much further than he had left it alerted him to something strange which in turn made him check that the children were actually in their beds.  He found all three of them asleep which must have in itself assured him that all was well.  Never in his wildest imaginings did he think that there was a stranger in the apartment who had simply walked in the front door.

[Redblossom]

An abduction at around 9.15pm is the only possible scenario which fits with the known facts and indeed, evidence.

Gerry actually saw Madeleine when he did the check at 9.10pm so that is our starting point.  Matthew did a later check at 9.30pm but did not have sight with Madeleine.  When Kate did the next check at 10.05pm Madeleine was gone.   It is interesting to note that had it not been for the slamming door or the waving curtains that Madeleine's disappearance might not have been detected until even much later.

So why didnt the curtains wave and the door slam at 9.30 when Matt was there? And why didnt he feel the cold if the shutter and window were open? Indeed why didnt Kate Mccann feel it too 45 mins later?
and the reason Matt didnt have sight of Madeleine at 9.30 is because he didnt LOOK, not that she  wasnt there

[Redblossom]

Gerry's observation that the bedroom door was open much further than he had left it alerted him to something strange which in turn made him check that the children were actually in their beds.  He found all three of them asleep which must have in itself assured him that all was well.  Never in his wildest imaginings did he think that there was a stranger in the apartment who had simply walked in the front door.

Was that an answer to my question? About how the abductor was nearly caught? That he was inside the apartment but Gerry never noticed?

[Redblossom]

Related and very interesting article on the Mccanns noticing the kids door more open

http://l-azzeri-lies-in-the-sun.com/Key_Problems_2.html

[AnneGuedes]

Fiction or true life, these things do happen.  Even Gerry in the reconstruction admits that he might well have disturbed the abductor while he was actually in the apartment.

Don't neglect a little devilish detail, John, Mr McCann said he looked for Madeleine only because the door was more opened than they left it. He looked first for her in his bedroom, then seeing her in her own bed he forgot about the door.
So it seems actually it wasn't Mr McCann who disturbed the abductor, but the abductor who disturbed Mr McCann, his 6th sense at least.

[John]

So why didnt the curtains wave and the door slam at 9.30 when Matt was there? And why didnt he feel the cold if the shutter and window were open? Indeed why didnt Kate Mccann feel it too 45 mins later?
and the reason Matt didnt have sight of Madeleine at 9.30 is because he didnt LOOK, not that she  wasnt there

Many reasons.   Maybe Matt closed the patio door completely when he entered whereas Kate left it slightly open.  A gust of wind at the opportune time?

It is also quite possible that the wind speed and/or direction changed between Matts visit at 9.30pm and Kates after 10pm.

[Redblossom]

Many reasons.   Maybe Matt closed the patio door completely when he entered whereas Kate left it slightly open.  A gust of wind at the opportune time?

It is also quite possible that the wind speed and/or direction changed between Matts visit at 9.30pm and Kates after 10pm.

Yes, maybe though Kate says she closed the door behind her and looked back to check and it wasnt that!

Anyway, you say the known facts and evidence point to an abduction at 9.15
What are the known facts and evidence that make a later abduction improbable or impossible, ie any time from Gerrys check to 10 pm

[Redblossom]

He looked first for her in his bedroom, then seeing her in her own bed he forgot about the door.

Anne, when did Gerry say he looked in his bedroom? For Madeleine? Icab said this the other day too.

[AnneGuedes]

It is interesting to note that had it not been for the slamming door or the waving curtains that Madeleine's disappearance might not have been detected until even much later.

In the first statement there's no way Madeleine's disappearance might not have been detected : no slamming door leading to looking inside and no curtains whooshing revealing Madeleine isn't in her bed, but an immediate discovery of open shutters, window, curtains.

[Redblossom]

Quote from: John on Today at 02:35:26 PM
It is interesting to note that had it not been for the slamming door or the waving curtains that Madeleine's disappearance might not have been detected until even much later.
---
Yes, had the door not slammed Kate wouldnt have physically checked on her kids, she saw the door more open and just went to close it again, before it slammed, thats the only reason she looked in

!

Thats all in her own account btw

Ps she only saw the flapping self opening curtains after she looked in, alledgedly that is as there are three different versions of that story, two versions from the files, and an extra version couple years later in their *documentary*

And you need to read this

http://l-azzeri-lies-in-the-sun.com/Key_Problems_2.html

[AnneGuedes]

Maybe Matt closed the patio door completely when he entered whereas Kate left it slightly open. 

I don't think Mr Oldfield, who spared two or three steps that would have allowed him to make sure Madeleine was in her bed and not out, as the undone bed under the window seemed to point to, would have opened the patio door, then closed it behind him to open it again 5 seconds later in order to get out and finally used his hands as a kind of suction pad to force the next one to do the same.
If Mr Oldfield really did the inside check, the abduction at 9:15 leaving everything open is highly improbable (12°C, chilly wind).