Fatal accidents in the home versus abductions. Is there are comparison?

[Jazzy]

the pros will carry on about  how   i myself  was left alone ina hotel room BUT  i was  11    and my parents and their friends were out for dinner and i had a meltdown/tantrum   and  my parents got in big trouble from other guests because i was very distressed     ( long story but anyway)   but there is a  world of diffrence between a  3 year old and a  11 year old  and  our parents never did it again they were embarrased and ashamed

What "pros"? You can now predict who will say what and it will centre on you?

[Jazzy]

No doubt I will be criticised for saying this but it has to be said.  It is unbelievable that even after poor little Madeleine remonstrated with her mother about being left alone in a strange apartment in the dark that the parents still chose to do so with the consequences that we all know so well.   That isn't just careless, it is downright criminal!!

I think if it were criminal they would have been charged. As it was, they weren't. The rest I agree with, what they did  was wrong. However, it was done and Madeliene is missing, they've paid a terrible price for that decision, no where near as terrible as their child. I'm certain that fact hasn't passed them by.

[faithlilly]

No wonder they were ashamed! Having an eleven year old child who has a screaming tantrum would make most parents ashamed. I hope you were ashamed as well.

Should they have felt any more ashamed than two parents who left their child so distressed  that their neighbour could hear it ?

[Angelo222]

I think if it were criminal they would have been charged. As it was, they weren't. The rest I agree with, what they did  was wrong. However, it was done and Madeliene is missing, they've paid a terrible price for that decision, no where near as terrible as their child. I'm certain that fact hasn't passed them by.

My reference to criminal was a 'figure of speech' and not a literal observation.

[Jazzy]

We almost agree on something then.

[CPN]

I think if it were criminal they would have been charged. As it was, they weren't. The rest I agree with, what they did  was wrong. However, it was done and Madeliene is missing, they've paid a terrible price for that decision, no where near as terrible as their child. I'm certain that fact hasn't passed them by.

Jazzy, I have said before that this assumption that "if it were criminal they would have been charged" is not correct, at least not in the UK, I don't know about in Portugal.   Prosecution is the last action Social Services Departments here take - if a situation can be dealt with in other ways, it will be. And I have given examples: parenting classes, Child Protection Register etc  And we do not, and should not, know what actions have been taken by Social Services here, if any

[Jazzy]

I suspect that at the time, with Amaral convinced he had his culprits, any charge he could substantiate he'd make.

[Lyall]

I suspect that at the time, with Amaral convinced he had his culprits, any charge he could substantiate he'd make.

Police don't make those decisions Jazzy.

[AnneGuedes]

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that cot deaths are recorded as death by naturel causes by a coroner so wouldn't fall into an accidental death.

more figures:

I found this sight today 
http://www.pact-online.org/index.php/taken/taken-study

You can download a booklet giving information on child abductions in the UK.
 
They cover all types off abductions, but I'll post snippets of the data relevant to our discussion here.

Abductions by a stranger The police data included 247 cases (273 victims) where a child was abducted by  a stranger. Three-quarters were attempted abductions.

(273 divided by four = 68.25 successful stranger abductions)

Four attempted abductions by strangers occurred when an offender tried to deceive hospital staff, school staff or the parent themselves into releasing the child into their care. In 22 cases the offender attempted to take a young child in the presence of their parent(s) whilst in a shopping centre, supermarket, play area, other public places, or – in one case – from their home.


(This was an attempted abduction)

Abductions by a stranger accounted for the single largest category of all abductions (42 per cent of all cases). However, in 186 cases, the offender failed to actually  abduct the victim(s) and the case was an attempted abduction18. Therefore, three- quarters of stranger abductions were actually attempted abductions.


(Attempted) abduction with parent present
Two children were removed from their home address. In one case a neighbour entered the victim’s home, assaulted the mother, and then left with the victim, before the mother regained the child. In the other case, a person whose relationship to the
victim was not known removed the child from their home address while their mother was upstairs but was stopped nearby.

Completed abductions by strangers (sexual motive) 15 children, in 12 cases, were successfully abducted by an offender with a clear  sexual motive.         
The victims ranged in age from 7 to 17 years, with 11 victims being between 13 and 17 years old. Three victims were boys; the rest were girls. 12 victims were white, one was black, one was of other ethnic origin and the ethnicity of one was not known.
Five of the victims suffered a sexual assault as a result of the offence (see Table A6 in the Appendix)33. Two boys suffered a sex attack after being lured back to an offender’s  house where they stayed the night. Three   girls were raped, each in separate offences. Two had first met the perpetrator online (see text box for more details). The third was forced into a car whilst walking and was released after the offence.
Three other victims suffered minor physical injuries. In two of these cases the victim’s clothing was removed. The remaining seven victims suffered no apparent physical injuries (though it is very likely that emotional or psychological trauma did result from the offences).
All offences lasted for less than 24 hours, with the exception of one case which continued for between one and two days (in two cases this information was not available). Two cases involved the victim being abducted by more than one offender, though both resulted in no physical injury.
In four cases the victim(s) was abducted from a street, in three cases the victim was in a park, common or open space, two victims were in a bus station at the time of the offence, and two were near to their home address.
As a result of these incidents police recorded eight offences of child abduction, six offences of kidnapping and one offence of abduction (Scotland) (see Table A1, Appendix).
Abduction by stranger (unconfirmed sexual motive) Though unconfirmed, the motive in several other abductions completed by strangers appeared to be sexual.
In one case a registered sex offender befriended two young children and took them back to his house, where he gave them food and let them play on a games console. They left a short time later with no apparent sexual offence having been committed.
In another case, a girl was picked up by a man she met on a social networking site and was taken back to his home. The victim called the police and she was released without any apparent physical injury. In a separate offence, a girl was dragged into bushes but was released after screaming and alerting a passer-by.


So according to this information there were no successful child abductions from the home in the given period (12 months I believe, from 2011/2012, )

It's also worth noting that the mean age of a victim was 13 years.

The booklet is 82 pages long, I have picked very small points out of a lot of data. I highly recommend reading all the relevant passages and looking at the graphs in context.

Cariad.

Many thanks for these informations, Cariad. Very clarifying.

[Cariad]

Many thanks for these informations, Cariad. Very clarifying.

You're more than welcome. I'm glad to be of assistance in my own small way.

I do wish that Davel would read it though.....

[sadie]

Yes, thank you Cariad.  Interesting reading.

So there were attempted abductions, one by a stranger, from the home with a parent present.


Cariads report

  SNIP/-
(Attempted) abduction with parent present
Two children were removed from their home address. In one case a neighbour entered the victim’s home, assaulted the mother, and then left with the victim, before the mother regained the child. In the other case, a person whose relationship to the
victim was not known removed the child from their home address while their mother was upstairs but was stopped nearby.

No matter that in these cases they were not successful.  The attempts were made and that shows how audacious these pervs can be

Thank you Cariad.  Very useful information.

[Cariad]

Yes, thank you Cariad.  Interesting reading.

So there were attempted abductions, one by a stranger, from the home with a parent present.


Cariads report

No matter that in these cases they were not successful.  The attempts were made and that shows how audacious these pervs can be

Thank you Cariad.  Very useful information.

It does happen.
  Please don't click on the link if you're easily upset. The case was horrific!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/5069656.stm

This happened Twenty minutes by car from my house.

It is extremely rare though. I stand by my assertion that a fatal accident is Statistically more likely than an abduction from the home.

I'm not claiming that it's impossible that Madeleine was abducted. Children are, and I think everybody accepts that. But Davel's insistence that abduction is more likely than accident when a child (any child) is left alone is, quite frankly, bugging the hell out of me.

[AnneGuedes]

I'm not claiming that it's impossible that Madeleine was abducted. Children are, and I think everybody accepts that.

This man, who seems to be compulsive (something normally psychiatrists observe), stole the little girl just after her returning home from shopping with her mum. Did the mother let him in, as she knew him, was it an opportunistic abduction ?

[Cariad]

This man, who seems to be compulsive (something normally psychiatrists observe), stole the little girl just after her returning home from shopping with her mum. Did the mother let him in, as she knew him, was it an opportunistic abduction ?

Yes he was known to the family and allowed to enter the home. This link has more details. He took the child out of the bath when the mother was making a phone call!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/5063664.stm

[CPN]

I'm not claiming that it's impossible that Madeleine was abducted. Children are, and I think everybody accepts that. But Davel's insistence that abduction is more likely than accident when a child (any child) is left alone is, quite frankly, bugging the hell out of me.

I've given figures before, Cariad, but they are ignored when it is convenient!!  Or you are asked for even more information ie the info given is, presumably, not acceptable!

Home Safety Facts and Figures (I have selected the relevant ones)
* More accidents happen at home than anywhere else
* Every year there are approximately 4000 deaths as the result of a home accident. Around 120 of these are below 15 years and 1300 over 75
* During 2002 there were 2.7million home accidents requiring hospital treatment, of which 477,500 involved children under five
* Children under the age of five and people over 65 (particularly those over 75) are most likely to have an accident at home
* Every year around 120 children under 14 die as the result of an accident in the home
* Around 25,000 under-fives attend A&E departments each year after being accidentally poisoned
* 26,000 under-fives are burnt or scalded in the home every year. A hot drink can still scald a small child up to 15 minutes after it is made
* Every year more than 4,200 children are involved in falls on the stairs and 4,000 children under the age of 15 are injured falling from windows

Even if you buy a ticket every week in a year you are 20 times more likely to suffer a fatal home accident that you are to win the National Lottery!"
http://www.rospa.com/homesafety/adviceandinformation/general/facts-figures.aspx