SY claim the man Tanner saw had collected his child from the night creche ?

[faithlilly]

In my opinion we have to be very careful about placing too much weight on one witness testimony, particularly when it comes to identifying the person seen. Witness testimony is notoriously unreliable in certain situations, partly  because of a process a witness can go through called, "reconstructive memory".

Witnesses can sometimes create "schemas", whereby their mind subconsciously distorts their memories in order to fit in with what they now know. This process was likely evident , I think,  when Mr Smith later saw Gerald McCann coming off a plane and bowing his head, causing him to make a statement to police which said he was 60 to 80% sure that the man seen carrying a child at 10:00 pm was McCann.

In my opinion we have to be very careful about placing too much weight on one witness testimony, particularly when it comes to identifying the person seen. Witness testimony is notoriously unreliable in certain situations, partly  because of a process a witness can go through called, "reconstructive memory".

Witnesses can sometimes create "schemas", whereby their mind subconsciously distorts their memories in order to fit in with what they now know. This process was likely evident , I think,  when Mr Smith later saw Gerald McCann coming off a plane and bowing his head, causing him to make a statement to police which said he was 60 to 80% sure that the man seen carrying a child at 10:00 pm was McCann.

And Mrs Smith ?

[Benice]

Interesting, Benice. Never thought of that.

But even though he was near the beach, he had to walk close to a more social area first - from which the Smiths emerged - on his way. Wouldn't it have been better to use a car as much as possible at this stage rather than have Smithman walking through a far more exposed area with the child? And why not cover her up with something to at least make positive identification as a girl difficult?

I'm thinking that if a boat was involved, then it's not easy to give a precise time for when it will be in the right place at sea,  in the same way you would be able to with a car. (Not that I know anything about boats).   So it could be that they needed a hiding place near the beach to go to (by car) to wait to hear that the boat was in place   

If their original plans had to be changed - because of Gerry unexpectedly doing his 9.05 check, then that would possibly make it even harder as the boat would have to accommodate those time changes.    It's not like a car, where you simply sit there parked up for a bit longer than you first planned.   

As I say I don't know anything about boats, but if Madeleine was going to be taken out in a dinghy to a boat waiting off shore - then having to contend with tides, winds, etc. would not make it a guaranteed precise operation, in terms of timing.

Also it could be that the hiding place was not ideal, but was the only one available - even if it meant a 2 minute exposed walk to the shoreline.

As I say it's just a theory - which first came into my mind when I was reading about Madeleine being taken out in a dinghy to another boat - as one of the Kiddies Club activities.

[Haskins]

And Mrs Smith ?

I think the same principle applies. Indeed two people discussing things from memory can serve to reinforce the distortion

[Haskins]

On the other hand, without Mr Smith's description and the e-fit (wherever it came from), SY would be grasping at straws.

Yes, clearly they have to go with it. It's just about the only lead they have. And, assuming authentic veracity (as there is no reason not to) it is still a lead. Mr & Mrs Smith probably did see someone at that time and that place; where we have to be careful is relying too much on them identifying exactly who that was.

[Cariad]

Yes, clearly they have to go with it. It's just about the only lead they have. And, assuming authentic veracity (as there is no reason not to) it is still a lead. Mr & Mrs Smith probably did see someone at that time and that place; where we have to be careful is relying too much on them identifying exactly who that was.

Well surly the same will have to be applied to every other identification of Smithman to then?

[Haskins]

Well surly the same will have to be applied to every other identification of Smithman to then?

Absolutely. Witness testimony is unreliable in these circumstances. We have to always bear this in mind. That's not the same thing as saying it shouldn't be evaluated. Just don't base your whole case on it.

In some cases it can be more reliable. For example if someone sees someone they recognise. But where there is a likelihood of reconstructive memory kicking in I think it is wise to be benignly sceptical.

[Benita]

Yes, clearly they have to go with it. It's just about the only lead they have. And, assuming authentic veracity (as there is no reason not to) it is still a lead. Mr & Mrs Smith probably did see someone at that time and that place; where we have to be careful is relying too much on them identifying exactly who that was.

the McCann bashers think it was Gerry.. even though he was in the tapas at the time of the sighting  8-)(--)

[Haskins]

the McCann bashers think it was Gerry.. even though he was in the tapas at the time of the sighting  8-)(--)

Yes Benita and to be fair their point of view, there is corroborating evidence for it, because the witness Mr Smith did say some time later, after seeing (on TV)  Gerald McCann alighting from from a plane, that the way he bowed his head was similar to the head bow of the person he saw on the night, and that he was 60% to 80% certain that it was McCann that he saw.

The point I was making though is that this identification was probably a product of the "reconstructive memory" process and therefore  most likely highly unreliable.

[Benita]

Yes Benita and to be fair their point of view, there is corroborating evidence for it, because the witness Mr Smith did say some time later, after seeing (on TV)  Gerald McCann alighting from from a plane, that the way he bowed his head was similar to the head bow of the person he saw on the night, and that he was 60% to 80% certain that it was McCann that he saw.

The point I was making though is that this identification was probably a product of the "reconstructive memory" process and therefore  most likely highly unreliable.

I get you ...but Gerry couldn't be in 2 places at one time..

[Haskins]

I get you ...but Gerry couldn't be in 2 places at one time..

No definitely not, I agree with your observation. (Although McCann accusers have tried to argue that the whereabouts of McCann weren't definitely pinpointed between about 9:40 and 10:15. That's not an argument I'm happy to advance though!)

[Benita]

No definitely not, I agree with your observation. (Although McCann accusers have tried to argue that the whereabouts of McCann weren't definitely pinpointed between about 9:40 and 10:15. That's not an argument I'm happy to advance though!)

well some on here are not allowed to speak their mind on here or you are slapped with a warning or a ban..unless your a anti  McCann then that's ok they get away with it >@@(*&)

[Benice]

No definitely not, I agree with your observation. (Although McCann accusers have tried to argue that the whereabouts of McCann weren't definitely pinpointed between about 9:40 and 10:15. That's not an argument I'm happy to advance though!)

Me neither as it can only be advanced if you accept that the friends were all liars even though no-one can come up with a credible reason why they would so easily agree to become accomplices to the heinous crime of the disposal of a dead child.   Especially as the only close friends the McCanns had in that group were Fiona and David Payne.  The others either didn't know them that well or hadn't seen them for years.

 
 

[Haskins]

Me neither as it can only be advanced if you accept that the friends were all liars even though no-one can come up with a credible reason why they would so easily agree to become accomplices to the heinous crime of the disposal of a dead child.   Especially as the only close friends the McCanns had in that group were Fiona and David Payne.  The others either didn't know them that well or hadn't seen them for years.

 
 

Yes I agree that is really stretching it. Unless perhaps you believe in illuminati type conspiracies or things of that ilk.

[faithlilly]

No definitely not, I agree with your observation. (Although McCann accusers have tried to argue that the whereabouts of McCann weren't definitely pinpointed between about 9:40 and 10:15. That's not an argument I'm happy to advance though!)

Can I ask why you feel uncomfortable with that argument ? Perhaps you have found evidence from an independent witness that categorically places Gerry in the tapas bar between those times ?

[pathfinder73]

First searches at 10pm when the chaos and confusion was going on is the time to concentrate on, not the tapas bar. The perfect time for someone to slip away unnoticed.