Did the moving door have any relevance to Madeleine's disappearance?

[sadie]

A bit of modus operandi.
Even if an apartment looks like no-one is home, IMO a burglar may knock at the door just to make sure.
Most times when it looks like no-one is home, there really is no-one home, so the knock goes unanswered, and entry and burgalry commence IMO.
However for this the burglar needs a cover story IMO, just in case he gets surprised and someone does answer the door.
Something simple like "oh sorry I thought the so and so family was staying here".
This may possibly be what happened IMO at the apartment directly above 5G on 16 April 2007 (source: partly casefiles, partly crimewatch). There was a knock at the door, asking for someone who isn't staying there. Soon afterwards those tourists did go out, and the place was burgled.

IMO it is likely that the very first directly relevant physical event on 3 May 2007 at 5A, was that during dinner while the apartment looked and sounded like no-one was home, someone knocked at the north door and got no response.
But that is just one person''s amateur opinion and it is possible it may be wrong.

I think you are right in that some burglars do knock on doors to see if anyone is in.  It happened to us.  Hubby very sick in bed didn't answer the urgent knocks, but eventually struggled out to look thru the window to  see burglar walking off. 

Back to bed to, soon after, hear banging downstairs.  Burglar had circled round in a big loop and come in via back door, which was unlocked.   Was busy pulling all the saucepans out of kitchen cupboards when he heard hubby moving around.  They eyeballed each other from top to bottom of stairs before burglar disappeared.



But I have to say, I am not so sure that a burglar would run if a sleepy 3-4 year old confronted him in the dark.

[pegasus]

What about the moving door? If you work that out you will solve it IMO.

IMO a child went on foot from the north bedroom to another room, and because the distance between the bedroom door edge and the bedroom door frame was less than child width and insufficient to allow through passage, the child employed the procedure of pulling the door slightly to increase that opening width sufficiently to child width so as to allow passage. IMO (and might be over-complicated?)

[pathfinder73]

IMO a child went on foot from the north bedroom to another room, and because the distance between the bedroom door edge and the bedroom door frame was less than child width and insufficient to allow through passage, the child employed the procedure of pulling the door slightly to increase that opening width sufficiently to child width so as to allow passage. IMO (and might be over-complicated?)

Madeleine was asleep when Gerry checked and he said the door had moved from ajar to half-open sometime between 8.30-9pm.

[pegasus]

Madeleine was asleep when Gerry checked and he said the door had moved from ajar to half-open sometime between 8.30-9pm.

IMO that first widening of door angle indicates that sometime between about 8.30pm and about 9.05pm the child walked out of the north bedroom (which would require pulling the bedroom door slightly so as to increase the opening size to childwidth and to allow passage) for example maybe to go to bathroom, then returned to north bedroom and went back to bed. IMO.
 

[pathfinder73]

IMO that first widening of door angle indicates that sometime between about 8.30pm and about 9.05pm the child walked out of the north bedroom (which would require pulling the bedroom door slightly so as to increase the opening size to childwidth and to allow passage) for example maybe to go to bathroom, then returned to north bedroom and went back to bed. IMO.
 

And who moved the door from ajar to half-open a second time after Gerry left between 9.10-9.30?

[pegasus]

And who moved the door from ajar to half-open a second time after Gerry left between 9.10-9.30?

IMO the child, going on foot from north bedroom to another room.

 

[pathfinder73]

IMO the child, going on foot from north bedroom to another room.

 

So Gerry had just seen his daughter sleeping. Madeleine woke up the first time before he arrived and left the room. Then she fell back asleep before he saw her. Now Gerry has left she has woken up again and left the room a second time. Why would she wake up a second time and leave the room?

[pegasus]

... Why would she wake up a second time...?

IMO the cause is likely to be shutter noise.

BTW the single common reason IMO for all of why the child left the room and why the window was open and why no-one climbed in, is built on some starting assumptions which are just my opinion and I word like this
"Just after a checker has left, the apartment looks like there is no-one home, and sounds like there is no-one home, and if someone knocks on the north door no-one would go answer it"

[sadie]

So Gerry had just seen his daughter sleeping. Madeleine woke up the first time before he arrived and left the room. Then she fell back asleep before he saw her. Now Gerry has left she has woken up again and left the room a second time. Why would she wake up a second time and leave the room?

Altho I dont think your theory is right Pegasus, I am happy to look at it and consider sensibly .  I trust you would do the same with any of mine.

Could it have been that someone partially raised the shutter to look in and suss out the situation, then dropped it down again and that wakened Madeleine the first time?


After Gerry left, could it have been that who ever sussed it out, more fully opened the shutters and opened the window?

Only suggestions.

[pathfinder73]

IMO the cause is likely to be shutter noise.

BTW the single common reason IMO for all of why the child left the room and why the window was open and why no-one climbed in, is built on some starting assumptions which are just my opinion and I word like this
"Just after a checker has left, the apartment looks like there is no-one home, and sounds like there is no-one home, and if someone knocks on the north door no-one would go answer it"

So you think the window was opened before Matt checked at 9.30 and he didn't notice it being open or the curtains blowing in the wind? Where was Madeleine when Matt checked?

[sadie]

So you think the window was opened before Matt checked at 9.30 and he didn't notice it being open or the curtains blowing in the wind? Where was Madeleine when Matt checked?

As far as blowing in the wind is concerned.  It was gusty.  Gusts are intermitent, not all the time.

IIRC from the archived weather reports (I supplied them btw) it was building up to rougher weather and the seas were likely to get a good deal wilder.  At 9.30pm it might have been relatively calm.  Does anybody know?

[pathfinder73]

As far as blowing in the wind is concerned.  It was gusty.  Gusts are intermitent, not all the time.

IIRC from the archived weather reports (I supplied them btw) it was building up to rougher weather and the seas were likely to get a good deal wilder.  At 9.30pm it might have been relatively calm.  Does anybody know?

What? Do you mean relatively calm only 20 minutes before whooshing curtains and doors slamming shut ? Maybe a poltergeist abducted Madeleine.

[pegasus]

... Could it have been that someone partially raised the shutter to look in and suss out the situation, then dropped it down again and that wakened Madeleine the first time? ...

Adding an extra earlier visit by intending intruder would add various difficult complications IMO, and so I go for the simpler bathroom trip explanation for the first widening of door angle.
IMO the indications available to an intending burglar were (a) dim light inside - only one small lamp on in whole apartment, (b) no noise when listening outside north window, (c) no response to the precautionary knock on north external door which I hypothesise, and possibly (d) seeing adult leaving. Those indications IMO are plenty sufficient for an intending burglar to establish with about 99% certainty that no-one is home.

[pegasus]

So you think the window was opened before Matt checked at 9.30 and he didn't notice it being open or the curtains blowing in the wind? .....

IMO possibly yes (but I emphasise that I think the check and checker are genuine).

[pathfinder73]

That theory is not possible. There is no way that Madeleine moved the door and left that room on 3 separate occasions. She was sleeping according to Gerry at 9.05 (and the twins didn't wake up once all night long) so she wasn't waking up a second time only minutes later before Matt arrives. Why didn't Matt see her if she had left the room? And then the door moved a third time before Kate checks.

1st door move 8.30-9.00

2nd door move 9.10-9.30

3rd door move 9.35-9.50