Author Topic: Madeleine McCann case to be re-opened in Portugal as an abduction scenario.  (Read 68769 times)

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Offline gilet

Times change and we need to move on from what was said some 5 years ago and listen to what the Judiciary are saying now.

What precisely is the difference between what the judiciary are now saying and that report? Are you telling us that the judiciary has given us a new ruling on the matter of the neglect charge? Or are you simply speculating that might happen?

The clear outline of reasoning by a senior Portuguese lawyer has far more standing in my eyes than either this news report or your speculation.


Offline gilet

I didnt ask about the dog hairs as that info is in the files

Regarding the fag ash alledgedly dropped all over the place by GNR officers  - reported in the media wont cut it Im afraid for you to state it as a fact and that it caused significant problems for forensics...I prefer to read the police files than the Sun for facts

I will remember that.

And you made no differentiation in your request for information as to the provenance of the claims between dog hairs and fag ash. Don't try to pretend otherwise now.

Offline gilet

I leave the delusions to others.

We shall see what happens....................................

No you don't. Your entire position is a delusion that you know better than the experts of Scotland Yard. You are unwilling to accept what they, the experts, are telling you.

And yes, we shall see what heppens. But having ruled out the McCanns as suspects I would not set my hopes (as you clearly are doing) that SY or the PJ are going to suddenly change their minds and follow your amateur opinions.


Redblossom

  • Guest
I will remember that.

And you made no differentiation in your request for information as to the provenance of the claims between dog hairs and fag ash. Don't try to pretend otherwise now.

yes I did, i put the two words cigarette ash in bold.....

Dont pretend otherwise now
 8((()*/

Offline jassi

What precisely is the difference between what the judiciary are now saying and that report? Are you telling us that the judiciary has given us a new ruling on the matter of the neglect charge? Or are you simply speculating that might happen?

The clear outline of reasoning by a senior Portuguese lawyer has far more standing in my eyes than either this news report or your speculation.

As far as I'm aware, the judiciary haven't actually said anything recently and have yet to pronounce on the request to reopen the case.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Angelo222

This latest precipitation relates to the Smith family sighting, so looks like there will be further interviews in the offing.

One observation though.  If SY and now the PJ are putting so much confidence in the Smiths sighting, why aren't they putting the same confidence in the fact that Mr Smith stated that he was between 60% and 80% sure the man was Gerry McCann while his daughter estimated it at 60%?

When I was at school I was taught that 60% is greater than 50% but then that was a while ago.

Some people wonder why the McCanns sat on the Smiths e-fits for 5 years if it was so crucial?????
« Last Edit: October 24, 2013, 11:10:06 AM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline gilet

Is that the best you can come up with??

1. The disappearance of a child is hardly evidence of an abduction.

2. SY and the PJ have no evidence of parental involvement and no evidence that they weren't involved.

3. SY and the PJ looking into an abduction as a 'priority' is both funny and sad.  Six years on and this is the best they have?  Hardly evidence is it.

4. The unexplained sighting could very well be yet another Tannerman.  Again hardly evidence of anything.

As I have said on many occasions I have, personally, no idea what happened in PDL that night.

But I do recognise that there is clear evidence of potential abduction as I have outlined above. It may be slim evidence but it remains evidence. The fact you are unwilling to recognise it as such is a great shame but does not devalue it.

The reason that SY are now involved at all is largely because the initial five months of the investigation were botched so badly. It is appalling that Amaral's team did not do the basic policing which would have ruled out the initial sighting within hours of Tanner's statement being made. It is equally appalling that it was not till after Amaral had been removed ignominiously from the case that the PJ even got round to testing the timings of the Smith sighting by interviewing the Kelly's bar staff and requesting the till receipts. It is hardly surprising that SY are moving slowly when everyone knows that the initial few hours and weeks of a missing person investigation are the most fruitful. They have not had the benefit of that immediacy that Amaral so badly squandered.

And when there is a body of expertise both here in the UK and in PT which can find absolutely no evidence of parental involvement of the parents even though they have been thoroughly investigated but can find evidence of potential abduction then I prefer to trust that expertise than amateur speculation such as yours.


 


Offline Albertini

The second error is your claim that "the adult carrying her, he believed was mccann (sic) himself." You are wrong. What he claimed was that he believed it was a possibility.
There is no excuse really for your making such crucial errors with regard to this aspect of the case because this has been explained clearly many times here and elsewhere.

Find where Mr Smith uses the word possibility. His exact words were:

I would be 60-80% sure that it was Gerard McCann that I met that night carrying a child.

The McCanns (sic) and their friends did what any normal parents and friends would do in the event of a child disappearing. They searched the apartment thoroughly before then involving the police. I am sorry you cannot understand this but it is normal.

And you are conveniently forgetting that two of the specific disturbances identified in the crime scene were done by the local police. Cigarette ash and dog hairs both from the GNR were significant problems for the crime scene investigators.

Searched the apartment thoroughly? What about the one solid opportunity for forensic examination, the window and shutters?

From a recent Blackmith Post:

Upon discovery of the scene Gerry immediately  "lowered the shutter" (Madeleine page 73), destroying any possibility  of  load forces test or other aperture dependent tests, including visibility tests,  producing any meaningful results. The police have never known how far the shutter was actually open.

The other area for study was, of course, laboratory investigation  to determine whether the shutters were opened from inside or out. So what did Gerry McCann, keeper of the "crime scene", do? He "rushed outside" and pushed the shutters upwards, thus destroying at a stroke all possibility of materials analysis: thenceforth any lab results could be put down to Gerry and were therefore forensically worthless. Mathew Oldfield's 9.30 PM evidence at once became incapable of assessment against the facts. And just to complete this triumph of evidence preservation, Kate McCann, as well as "throwing cupboards and wardrobes open" – making it impossible for police to assess at a glance any signs of intrusion or struggle – handled the window, presumably to close it.

This resulted in:

On May 4 and subsequent evenings video/DVD recording from outside and from the bedroom doorway at corresponding and sunset-corrected times would provide court exhibit evidence of the following:

    The light entering the bedroom from outside
    The obviousness or otherwise of the open shutters to passers-by on the street
     Visibility in the room at the appropriate corrected times and
    Whether, therefore, Mathew Oldfield's claimed inability to describe the lighting conditions and shutter state was credible or obviously untrue.
    Finally, knowing how open the window was would enable controlled testing to establish the feasibility of the famous curtain blow and slamming bedroom door (with patio doors already closed) described by Kate McCann.

The police never even saw this evidence. It was gone before they arrived.

That does not necessarily mean it was a deliberate act to cover their own wrong-doing: what matters though is the effect, not the intention. Perhaps readers can forgive the sense of outrage that sometimes comes  smoking off the Bureau pages, after six wearying years of having to make these irrefutable points in the face of public misinformation and denial. They destroyed all the evidence before the police arrived!

And it's the police who are supposed to have contaminated the apartment, the "crime scene". 

Correct. The dog alerts were not backed up by any forensics. They were never corroborated. That is one factor which led the AG to point out that there is absolutely no evidence of any crime by the McCanns.

But they were an indication nonetheless, a tool used by Police all over the world. And we all know why there was no evidence? Because the investigation was disturbed. Who disturbed it? Why the McCann's and their cohorts.

Till anyone provides any evidence at all that something happened to Madeleine within the actual apartment then it is sheer speculation. I prefer evidence and facts.

No the dogs provided an indication, which is more than there is to support an abduction. However of course the dogs indications could equally relate to an abductor having committed an act which would cause the dogs to alert.

Why simply dismiss the dogs findings because it is perceived that it implies guilt against the Mccann's? Why couldn't an abductor have killed the child?

Offline Albertini

It is appalling that Amaral's team did not do the basic policing which would have ruled out the initial sighting within hours of Tanner's statement being made.

They did rule out the Tanner sighting though. They said her sighting was unreliable. And it was.

And when there is a body of expertise both here in the UK and in PT which can find absolutely no evidence of parental involvement of the parents even though they have been thoroughly investigated but can find evidence of potential abduction then I prefer to trust that expertise than amateur speculation such as yours.

"Thoroughly investigated"?? Are you sure about that? At the point of a thorough investigation of their movements, critical to determining the guilt or otherwise of the McCann's, they hired the most expensive extradition lawyers in the world and fled Portugal never to return for the reconstruction.

Until such time as they comply with that reconstruction request it is hogwash to suggest they were thoroughly investigated over there.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2013, 11:15:14 AM by Albertini »

Offline gilet

This latest precipitation relates to the Smith family sighting, so looks like there will be further interviews in the offing.

One observation though.  If SY and now the PJ are putting so much confidence in the Smiths sighting, why aren't they putting the same confidence in the fact that Mr Smith stated that he was between 60% and 80% sure the man was Gerry McCann while his daughter estimated it at 60%?

When I was at school I was taught that 60% is greater than 50% but then that was a while ago.

But 60% of that one statement amounts to far, far less than 50% of the entire Smith statements. Why do you conveniently forget that no other Smith family member even mentioned the possibility that Gerry might have been the mad in their statements?

And why do you forget that Gerry McCann is reported by at least six other perfectly credible witnesses including one at least one staff member as being in the Tapas Restaurant at the time of the Smith sighting?

The fact that one Smith family member reported this as a possibility is greatly outweighed by the fact that no other member did and by the fact that the possibility is made much more difficult by Gerry being identified by people who actually knew him or knew him as the father of the missing child as in a different location.

Hardly surprising when you look at all the facts instead of superficially only concentrating on one of them, that SY are following the course they are following is it?

Offline Eleanor

This latest precipitation relates to the Smith family sighting, so looks like there will be further interviews in the offing.

One observation though.  If SY and now the PJ are putting so much confidence in the Smiths sighting, why aren't they putting the same confidence in the fact that Mr Smith stated that he was between 60% and 80% sure the man was Gerry McCann while his daughter estimated it at 60%?

When I was at school I was taught that 60% is greater than 50% but then that was a while ago.

Some people wonder why the McCanns sat on the Smiths e-fits for 5 years if it was so crucial?????

When did Mr. Smith's daughter even suggest that it was Gerry McCann they saw?
60% could well be greater than 50%, but not by much.  Especially coming from a man whose family didn't agree with him.

Offline jassi

Wasn't Mr Smith's daughter feeling unwell ? if this was the case, she may not have been paying much attention and been unable to contribute constructively to the description.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Redblossom

  • Guest
between 60 and 80% sure! So round it off to 70 for good measure...thats quite high by any measure

And his wife agreed with him!
Something some wish to sweep under the carpet.....
« Last Edit: October 24, 2013, 11:24:48 AM by Redblossom »

Offline Albertini

But 60% of that one statement amounts to far, far less than 50% of the entire Smith statements. Why do you conveniently forget that no other Smith family member even mentioned the possibility that Gerry might have been the mad in their statements?

And why do you forget that Gerry McCann is reported by at least six other perfectly credible witnesses including one at least one staff member as being in the Tapas Restaurant at the time of the Smith sighting?

The fact that one Smith family member reported this as a possibility is greatly outweighed by the fact that no other member did and by the fact that the possibility is made much more difficult by Gerry being identified by people who actually knew him or knew him as the father of the missing child as in a different location.

Hardly surprising when you look at all the facts instead of superficially only concentrating on one of them, that SY are following the course they are following is it?

But supporters of the McCann's have been saying for years it is accepted in statement analysis that witnesses timings are prone to be wrong in order to explain discrepancies in the Tapas statements. Why doesn't that same principal apply to Gerry's alibi at this time?

Offline gilet

Find where Mr Smith uses the word possibility. His exact words were:

I would be 60-80% sure that it was Gerard McCann that I met that night carrying a child.

Searched the apartment thoroughly? What about the one solid opportunity for forensic examination, the window and shutters?

From a recent Blackmith Post:

Upon discovery of the scene Gerry immediately  "lowered the shutter" (Madeleine page 73), destroying any possibility  of  load forces test or other aperture dependent tests, including visibility tests,  producing any meaningful results. The police have never known how far the shutter was actually open.

The other area for study was, of course, laboratory investigation  to determine whether the shutters were opened from inside or out. So what did Gerry McCann, keeper of the "crime scene", do? He "rushed outside" and pushed the shutters upwards, thus destroying at a stroke all possibility of materials analysis: thenceforth any lab results could be put down to Gerry and were therefore forensically worthless. Mathew Oldfield's 9.30 PM evidence at once became incapable of assessment against the facts. And just to complete this triumph of evidence preservation, Kate McCann, as well as "throwing cupboards and wardrobes open" – making it impossible for police to assess at a glance any signs of intrusion or struggle – handled the window, presumably to close it.

This resulted in:

On May 4 and subsequent evenings video/DVD recording from outside and from the bedroom doorway at corresponding and sunset-corrected times would provide court exhibit evidence of the following:

    The light entering the bedroom from outside
    The obviousness or otherwise of the open shutters to passers-by on the street
     Visibility in the room at the appropriate corrected times and
    Whether, therefore, Mathew Oldfield's claimed inability to describe the lighting conditions and shutter state was credible or obviously untrue.
    Finally, knowing how open the window was would enable controlled testing to establish the feasibility of the famous curtain blow and slamming bedroom door (with patio doors already closed) described by Kate McCann.

The police never even saw this evidence. It was gone before they arrived.

That does not necessarily mean it was a deliberate act to cover their own wrong-doing: what matters though is the effect, not the intention. Perhaps readers can forgive the sense of outrage that sometimes comes  smoking off the Bureau pages, after six wearying years of having to make these irrefutable points in the face of public misinformation and denial. They destroyed all the evidence before the police arrived!

And it's the police who are supposed to have contaminated the apartment, the "crime scene". 

But they were an indication nonetheless, a tool used by Police all over the world. And we all know why there was no evidence? Because the investigation was disturbed. Who disturbed it? Why the McCann's and their cohorts.

No the dogs provided an indication, which is more than there is to support an abduction. However of course the dogs indications could equally relate to an abductor having committed an act which would cause the dogs to alert.

Why simply dismiss the dogs findings because it is perceived that it implies guilt against the Mccann's? Why couldn't an abductor have killed the child?

He doesn't use the word possibility. He makes it clear by referring to a percentage it is not a certainty and therefore is only a possibility.

I am not responding to posts from blogs. We have been told by admin to refrain from bringing such material here so I will not comment till you bring actual evidence for me to comment on. I am rather shocked that you should rely on blogs so heavily.

As for the dogs, yes they are an indication. Not evidence. But they were an indication that was thoroughly investigated at length and still no corroboration was found. I believe Martin Grime tells us that the alerts are of no evidential value unless corroborated.

Unfortunately the equally valid indications of abduction (ie sigitings of men carrying children away from the area of the apartment) were not thoroughly investigated by the PJ under Amaral. Their total failure to rule out the Tanner sighting when the means to do so within hours of her making her statement is proof of that as is the fact that the PJ didn't even bother to check the timing of the Smith sighting by obtaining the till receipts till five whole months after the disappearance when Amaral had been removed from the case.

That is why the focus is now rightly on abduction.