Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?

[Carana]

The police were there and didn't make this up. Amaral came to the conclusion she was an unreliable witness. How did he later morph into George Harrison and she was sure it was him? Jane didn't even see him face on.

Didn't make what up? I already said that the surveillance episode most certainly did take place, but she couldn't positively identify him.

Can you give me one good reason why she wouldn't have been whisked off to make a statement to that effect if she had?

Even though the attempt was via covert means, the PJ could have organised a more formal ID parade the next day. That didn't happen either. Why would that be?

[Eleanor]

Best not to accuse anyone of lying.  There are other words.  Thank you.

[Carana]

@ Blonk

And adding to Benice's points:

Why did Amaral morph Martin Smith's 60-80% statement into 80%?

GA: The files that mention the testimony, they mention the clumsy manner in which he carried the child, the posture which we could call athletic, that he was an athletic individual and they offer a description, they reach the point of saying that, it was maybe possible in terms of saying who it is physically, but with those characteristics, the manner in which he walked, how he carried the child, they could know who it was. And so when he sees, when that family sees Gerry McCann descending from the airplane carrying the child and he starts to walk on the pavement, they realized. Now he says it’s 80%, if you tell me ah that is not evidence, I also agree it’s not evidence but at least it’s a piece of information and that information should always be worked out.
http://joana-morais.blogspot.com/2008/09/little-girl-died-in-that-apartment.html

And from there to an extract that you didn't quote from Amaral's book:

From that moment, he is sure: the man they came across that night was Gerald McCann.


In Ireland, the Smiths are watching the BBC news, which is broadcasting the event. For them, it’s a shock: that person, they recognise him. That way of carrying his child, that way of walking…It’s the man they saw at around 10pm on May 3rd, with a little girl, who seemed to be deeply asleep, in his arms.

This image, brings back with a jolt, that of the man they encountered in the streets of Vila da Luz, on the evening of Madeleine’s disappearance. It’s as if the scene is repeating itself ….Mr Smith thinking he’s hallucinating, sees the same report on other channels, ITV and Sky News. From that moment, he is sure: the man they came across that night was Gerald McCann. Of that there is very little doubt.

TOTL

[Carana]

This is the fundamental point. MS was emphatic that the man HE saw that night was NOT RM - but he saw a man the PJ were completely unaware of up until that point. MS did NOT see Tannerman, who was supposedly identified as RM. What connection did MS believe the man he saw had to Tannerman, which would clear RM?

I find it quite plausible that triggers jogged Peter's memory:

- I can't find the date of Lori's "scoop".... but it was certainly quite early on and the rumour would have been circulating like wildfire amongst the tabloid hacks at Hugo Beaty's.

- Search for Madeleine - police release pyjamas she was wearing

Last updated at 22:00 10 May 2007

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-454029/Search-Madeleine--police-release-pyjamas-wearing.html#ixzz402futLyD
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

ETA: The Algarve Resident appears to have shown a photo of her pyjamas as of 8 May.
A photograph of the same pyjamas Madeleine McCann was wearing.

Marks & Spencer in the UK kindly sent us a photograph of the same pyjamas Madeleine McCann was wearing on the night of her disappearance.
http://themaddiecasefiles.com/topic10155.html

- The surveillance fiasco took place on 11 May (but JT kept it quiet, and never identified Murat anyway).

- Murat was made arguido on 14 May.

[Carana]

I still haven't come across when Lori released her scoop, but there are numerous articles (Mail, Express) all casting suspicion on Murat as of 14 May - when he was made arguido.

[misty]

I still haven't come across when Lori released her scoop, but there are numerous articles (Mail, Express) all casting suspicion on Murat as of 14 May - when he was made arguido.

It was widely known from the start that Madeleine was wearing pyjamas when she went missing.
The pictures released of identical pyjamas were at odds with those allegedly seen worn by the child the Smiths saw.
MS had been home for 2 weeks before he received the suggestive phone call from his son, ie at least 6 days after the release of the pyjama photo but at least 2 days after RM had been declared arguido.
Was the real trigger the picture of the man in the media or the pyjamas which didn't match the ones they saw?

[Carana]

It was widely known from the start that Madeleine was wearing pyjamas when she went missing.
The pictures released of identical pyjamas were at odds with those allegedly seen worn by the child the Smiths saw.
MS had been home for 2 weeks before he received the suggestive phone call from his son, ie at least 6 days after the release of the pyjama photo but at least 2 days after RM had been declared arguido.
Was the real trigger the picture of the man in the media or the pyjamas which didn't match the ones they saw?

IMO, it could have been a slow realisation, perhaps even in the reverse order of the emerging news.

- A named local man had been made arguido.

- You vaguely remember crossing paths with a man carrying a child.

- Try to think back to your recollection.

- Off to check for any other details. The pyjamas, not identical to your recollection, but still similar.

- Think about it a bit more.

- It's still bugging you. Check with other family members.

- Decide to report the incident, just in case.

[Carana]

Asise from continuing to hunt for his elusive fridge, Amaral has stated that his other main action if he had stayed on the case was to get (undetermined as the wording varies) members of the Smith family back to Portugal.

What for and which members?

[Eleanor]

Asise from continuing to hunt for his elusive fridge, Amaral has stated that his other main action if he had stayed on the case was to get (undetermined as the wording varies) members of the Smith family back to Portugal.

What for and which members?

Only the ones he thought would suit his agenda, I suspect.

[misty]

Asise from continuing to hunt for his elusive fridge, Amaral has stated that his other main action if he had stayed on the case was to get (undetermined as the wording varies) members of the Smith family back to Portugal.

What for and which members?

To give Amaral team a little credit, I think they quickly  realised the Smith family were unreliable witnesses, but the investigation was struggling to produce any concrete evidence against the arguidos or other suspects. 

[slartibartfast]

To give Amaral team a little credit, I think they quickly  realised the Smith family were unreliable witnesses, but the investigation was struggling to produce any concrete evidence against the arguidos or other suspects.

Wishful thinking there?

[Carana]

Only the ones he thought would suit his agenda, I suspect.

It seems to have been only Martin. What about the rest of the family, bar his wife who didn't want to make a new statement, who didn't agree with Martin's doubt?


Lindsay Long
Holmes Indexer
Major Crime
Braunstone Police Station

 

Processos Vol XI Page 2875

Policia Judiciaria

NUIPC 201-070 GALGS

NOTE

On this date I state for the files that at about 12.12 I had telephone contact with the witness Martin Smith, by means of phone number ********* who referred to the communication he made on 20-09-2007 to the British authorities, that confirms his sighting and showing his full availability to travel to Portugal with the aim of making statements and collaborating with this police in all the diligences that could be considered necessary concerning these events.

Portimao, 27th September 2007

Signed

Inspector Paiva

[Carana]

To give Amaral team a little credit, I think they quickly  realised the Smith family were unreliable witnesses, but the investigation was struggling to produce any concrete evidence against the arguidos or other suspects.

Check my earlier post, Misty. It seems that Martin was the only one Amaral wanted over.

[Eleanor]

It seems to have been only Martin. What about the rest of the family, bar his wife who didn't want to make a new statement, who didn't agree with Martin's doubt?


Lindsay Long
Holmes Indexer
Major Crime
Braunstone Police Station

 

Processos Vol XI Page 2875

Policia Judiciaria

NUIPC 201-070 GALGS

NOTE

On this date I state for the files that at about 12.12 I had telephone contact with the witness Martin Smith, by means of phone number ********* who referred to the communication he made on 20-09-2007 to the British authorities, that confirms his sighting and showing his full availability to travel to Portugal with the aim of making statements and collaborating with this police in all the diligences that could be considered necessary concerning these events.

Portimao, 27th September 2007

Signed

Inspector Paiva

Thanks for that, Carana.

Hmm.  So why didn't Amaral want to interview the rest of The Smith Family?

[jassi]

Perhaps he wanted to hear what Martin Smith had to say before deciding whether or not he required statements from other family members.