Author Topic: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?  (Read 156587 times)

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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #315 on: February 14, 2016, 02:36:41 PM »
Option 2 - perhaps whoever it may have been didn't show up. A tentative arrangement is still a possibility.

Option 3 - DIL (daughter-in-law) - ok, possibly not likely if the loo is "basic".

Another possible option is if they happened to serve some kind of drink / snack that wasn't available at the Dolphin.
Or could the Dolphin have been noisy / crowded, hence a possible decision to leave and move somewhere else for a quieter moment (Option 1 ish)?

My main point is that there could be any number of reasons. If it had been considered important, the PJ should have asked.
OK, Kelly's did not serve any kind of food beyond peanuts and crisps, so I cannot think what might be the option there.

Could the Dolphin have been crowded or noisy.  From memory, the Dolphin was neither empty nor packed that night.  I don't think crowded is an option.

If you check my blog, you will see that while back, we ate out at Paulo's (recommended).  During the course of the evening, a number of groups came in.  I like that.  I hate eating in empty restaurants.  That tells me I am in a place that people do not rate highly.

So, the evening progressed, Paulo's got a bit more lively.  One group came in, of four, with a particular woman in tow.  She appeared to think that everything should be shouted.  As everyone else could only make themselves be heard by shouting, the place got quite noisy, and not to my liking.

So quite possibly the Dolphin got noisy.  Why not just head for base?  Early flight, pregnant, unwell woman.

May I address your main point?

Based on my experience of Luz (and my understanding of the case files), it appears to me that a considerable number of officers were deployed on the case who had limited understanding of the case, and even less of Luz.

I am not having a dig at the PJ.  Exactly the same 'error' has occurred with numerous investigative journalists.  Exactly the same 'error' has occurred with Operation Grange.  I suppose I must stick an IMO here.

First, from the statements it looks as if the PJ interviewed a single barmaid from Kelly's.  Memory says Sep 2007.  If my memory serves me well, that is around 5 months after the incident.  So, 5 months on, what should we expect this barmaid to remember of a non-remarkable night.  Probably nothing.

Second, from the statements, it looks as if the bar maid was asked if the Smiths had been in that night.  As I have said, I am not a pub frequenter, so please make up your own mind.  Do customers get known by their surname in pubs?  Is that how it works?  Good evening, Mr Smith, would you like your usual, and how about you Mr Smith, what would you like tonight?

Third, the sequence of events seems to be bar maid interview first, followed by till roll copying second.  That order may be extremely important.  If the PJ had a look at the till roll first, they might have seen that the pattern suggests strongly that Kelly's was very, very quiet that night.  Now they didn't have knowledge of the fact that Kelly's was a popular bar, and so a very quiet night was an oddity, to say the least.

What they would have got though, is that on a very quiet night, a group of 4 adults and 5 children would have been very memorable.  Not 'the Smiths', but just a large party on a quiet night.

Fourth, the PJ (as per many others) are unaware how Luz works.  Fernando's (aka café bar Calhete) - single person duty.  The Bull - two people on duty.  Kelly's - the norm is two people on duty.  If so, we are missing the evidence of one bar steward who was on duty that night.  The PJ seemingly had no idea that Kelly's usually has 2.

To return to your point.  Should the PJ have asked why the group moved from the Dolphin to Kelly's.  IMO yes.  Should various PIs have asked the same question? IMO yes.  Should OG have asked the same question? IMO yes.  Should any investigative journalist worth his salt have asked this question?  IMO yes.

I happen to think that as of Valentine's Day, 2016, this is one of the top 10 questions in this case.  Wouldn't it be nice to get an answer?
What's up, old man?

Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #316 on: February 14, 2016, 02:38:20 PM »
The group knew that she'd seen a man with a child, reason enough for a UK officer to have contacted her. There was no reason to explain about the surveillance episode to justify that, would there?

But why would they need it the day before they saw Murat on TV ?
Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #317 on: February 14, 2016, 03:36:32 PM »
But why would they need it the day before they saw Murat on TV ?

Sorry, two differerent conversations going on here.

Who knows? It could have been about anything that one of the T7 wanted to report on.

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #318 on: February 14, 2016, 03:40:19 PM »
OK, Kelly's did not serve any kind of food beyond peanuts and crisps, so I cannot think what might be the option there.

Could the Dolphin have been crowded or noisy.  From memory, the Dolphin was neither empty nor packed that night.  I don't think crowded is an option.

If you check my blog, you will see that while back, we ate out at Paulo's (recommended).  During the course of the evening, a number of groups came in.  I like that.  I hate eating in empty restaurants.  That tells me I am in a place that people do not rate highly.

So, the evening progressed, Paulo's got a bit more lively.  One group came in, of four, with a particular woman in tow.  She appeared to think that everything should be shouted.  As everyone else could only make themselves be heard by shouting, the place got quite noisy, and not to my liking.

So quite possibly the Dolphin got noisy.  Why not just head for base?  Early flight, pregnant, unwell woman.

May I address your main point?

Based on my experience of Luz (and my understanding of the case files), it appears to me that a considerable number of officers were deployed on the case who had limited understanding of the case, and even less of Luz.

I am not having a dig at the PJ.  Exactly the same 'error' has occurred with numerous investigative journalists.  Exactly the same 'error' has occurred with Operation Grange.  I suppose I must stick an IMO here.

First, from the statements it looks as if the PJ interviewed a single barmaid from Kelly's.  Memory says Sep 2007.  If my memory serves me well, that is around 5 months after the incident.  So, 5 months on, what should we expect this barmaid to remember of a non-remarkable night.  Probably nothing.

Second, from the statements, it looks as if the bar maid was asked if the Smiths had been in that night.  As I have said, I am not a pub frequenter, so please make up your own mind.  Do customers get known by their surname in pubs?  Is that how it works?  Good evening, Mr Smith, would you like your usual, and how about you Mr Smith, what would you like tonight?

Third, the sequence of events seems to be bar maid interview first, followed by till roll copying second.  That order may be extremely important.  If the PJ had a look at the till roll first, they might have seen that the pattern suggests strongly that Kelly's was very, very quiet that night.  Now they didn't have knowledge of the fact that Kelly's was a popular bar, and so a very quiet night was an oddity, to say the least.

What they would have got though, is that on a very quiet night, a group of 4 adults and 5 children would have been very memorable.  Not 'the Smiths', but just a large party on a quiet night.

Fourth, the PJ (as per many others) are unaware how Luz works.  Fernando's (aka café bar Calhete) - single person duty.  The Bull - two people on duty.  Kelly's - the norm is two people on duty.  If so, we are missing the evidence of one bar steward who was on duty that night.  The PJ seemingly had no idea that Kelly's usually has 2.

To return to your point.  Should the PJ have asked why the group moved from the Dolphin to Kelly's.  IMO yes.  Should various PIs have asked the same question? IMO yes.  Should OG have asked the same question? IMO yes.  Should any investigative journalist worth his salt have asked this question?  IMO yes.

I happen to think that as of Valentine's Day, 2016, this is one of the top 10 questions in this case.  Wouldn't it be nice to get an answer?

Thanks, SIL.

I'll go through this a little bit later and may have other points or questions, but enjoy your St. Valentine's Day.

Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #319 on: February 14, 2016, 03:50:41 PM »
Sorry, two differerent conversations going on here.

Who knows? It could have been about anything that one of the T7 wanted to report on.

Then why didn't they do it on the day they asked Tanner to get the number ? Why wait to the next day ?
Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Offline Brietta

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #320 on: February 14, 2016, 03:54:36 PM »
Kelly's bar is claimed to be an Irish bar, and I have also seen it claimed to be a Welsh bar.  The owner at the time became seriously ill and had to sell up in a hurry, so that particular route is closed to me.

Let's turn to The Bull and The Luz Tavern, both traditional English pubs.  Both owned, then and now by Carlos, who is 100% Portuguese.

I have been in Kelly's on a handful of occasions.  The truth of the matter is I am not a pub person.  I can see nothing Irish or Welsh about the interior.  Surely an Irish pub has something definitive, so that when you walk through the door, your immediate impression is Irish?  Perhaps I missed it all.

So why did the Smiths go to Kelly's?  Peter - early flight home.  Aoife - the flight home (of Peter and co) was to be early.  Martin - very early flight, with Martin the taxi to the airport.  Then there was Peter's wife, pregnant, not feeling well, faced with an early flight in the morning.

Why oh why should the Smiths have headed for the local pub?  Why oh why would 4 adults and 5 children rack up a bar bill of a measly €13.75, or roughly €1.50 each?  Perhaps enough for a can of Coke each?

If it was for a last pint of Guinness together, one did not get a pint of Guinness in 2007 for anything close to €1.50 in Kelly's.  If that is the explanation, a lot of people drank nothing that night.

I have no idea whether the Dolphin served Guinness in 2007.  I have no idea whether Kelly's was one of a limited number of places in Luz serving Guinness.

I would be grateful if the womenfolk of the forum would answer the following question.  Alcohol was available at the Dolphin, as shown by the bill.  Kelly's might well have had alcohol that was not available in the Dolphin, of that I cannot be sure.  There is to be an early or very early flight next morning.  Peter's wife is flying on it, is pregnant, and feeling unwell.

What is the chance of a nightcap at Kelly's?  As opposed to a vote to go home?  When the journey home quite probably allowed for a nightcap at the flat(s) for anyone who was interested.

You may wish to bear in mind that I am of the opinion that the Smiths visited Kelly's that night, after leaving the Dolphin.

But I am interested in views of why folks think it went this way.

Having just left a restaurant where a family meal had been eaten I can envisage no circumstances in which a company consisting of a sick pregnant woman and young children would detour from their short journey home to a nearby establishment to have drinks.
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #321 on: February 14, 2016, 04:37:16 PM »
Having just left a restaurant where a family meal had been eaten I can envisage no circumstances in which a company consisting of a sick pregnant woman and young children would detour from their short journey home to a nearby establishment to have drinks.
We know they paid the bill at Dolphin at about 9.28pm.
If they did not go to Kellys, but went straight home, that would place the Smith sighting at 9.30pm to 9.35pm wouldn't it?

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #322 on: February 14, 2016, 04:37:47 PM »
Having just left a restaurant where a family meal had been eaten I can envisage no circumstances in which a company consisting of a sick pregnant woman and young children would detour from their short journey home to a nearby establishment to have drinks.
Agreed. 
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 04:39:56 PM by blonk »

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #323 on: February 14, 2016, 04:40:12 PM »
Certainly in England, establishments sell soft drinks.

I would be amazed if the same isn't true in Portugal ....

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #324 on: February 14, 2016, 04:52:32 PM »
We know they paid the bill at Dolphin at about 9.28pm.
If they did not go to Kellys, but went straight home, that would place the Smith sighting at 9.30pm to 9.35pm wouldn't it?

Why would the group agree to have been in Kelly's bar if they hadn't been?

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #325 on: February 14, 2016, 04:56:47 PM »
Agreed. 

Have you worked out why Amaral was so sure that Martin Smith had identified Gerry on that stroll back towards home yet?

Did Amaral get that wrong, do you think?

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #326 on: February 14, 2016, 04:57:24 PM »
(snip)... Kelly's bar is an Irish pub...(snip)
No it wasn't.
Here's a clue - some people use their first (given) name in their business name.
Kelly is a popular first name in the UK - including Wales.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #327 on: February 14, 2016, 05:00:58 PM »
Certainly in England, establishments sell soft drinks.

I would be amazed if the same isn't true in Portugal ....
I am happy to say that late night establishments in Portugal do indeed sell soft drinks.

Plus the idea that the Smiths took a four year old, a 6 year old, and 3 kids around teens, is not unusual here.

Pubs here (including Kelly's) are not drinking dens, though some do drink too much.

They are family friendly hostelries, where a group such as the Smiths would have been welcomed warmly.
What's up, old man?

Offline misty

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #328 on: February 14, 2016, 05:06:07 PM »
Have you worked out why Amaral was so sure that Martin Smith had identified Gerry on that stroll back towards home yet?

Did Amaral get that wrong, do you think?

I would ask Amaral, first & foremost, why he was so sure the child was Madeleine based on the descriptions provided by the witnesses.

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #329 on: February 14, 2016, 05:14:26 PM »
I would ask Amaral, first & foremost, why he was so sure the child was Madeleine based on the descriptions provided by the witnesses.

Fair question.

The next might be why he became increasingly certain in his post-removal spoutings that the male was Gerry.

Why didn't he attempt to get efits done in May 2007?