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Author Topic: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?  (Read 156178 times)

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Alfred R Jones

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Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #480 on: February 24, 2016, 08:47:16 AM »
Quote from: ferryman on February 24, 2016, 08:43:43 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUnhfvGdmmw
lol.  I would love to hear about some genuine cases of adults getting in the wrong car, thinking it was their other half picking them up.  I wonder if drink had anything to do with it, or just dementia?
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #481 on: February 24, 2016, 10:08:15 AM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 08:47:16 AM
lol.  I would love to hear about some genuine cases of adults getting in the wrong car, thinking it was their other half picking them up.  I wonder if drink had anything to do with it, or just dementia?

I know someone who did exactly that. Luckily the gentleman whose car she entered saw the funny side !
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Alfred R Jones

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Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #482 on: February 24, 2016, 10:12:33 AM »
Quote from: Faithlilly on February 24, 2016, 10:08:15 AM
I know someone who did exactly that. Luckily the gentleman whose car she entered saw the funny side !
Was it drink or dementia in her case?
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #483 on: February 24, 2016, 10:22:27 AM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 10:12:33 AM
Was it drink or dementia in her case?

Not paying enough attention at a guess.
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Alfred R Jones

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #484 on: February 24, 2016, 10:45:19 AM »
Quote from: Faithlilly on February 24, 2016, 10:22:27 AM
Not paying enough attention at a guess.
She was obviously sure that she was getting into the right car (although she was wrong because she was not paying attention).  Davel's point was that (if you have your wits about you) you don't get into a car if you are looking at it and only 60-80% certain it's the right car, you wait to be sure. 
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #485 on: February 24, 2016, 11:40:02 AM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 10:45:19 AM
She was obviously sure that she was getting into the right car (although she was wrong because she was not paying attention).  Davel's point was that (if you have your wits about you) you don't get into a car if you are looking at it and only 60-80% certain it's the right car, you wait to be sure.

Yet Tanner was only 80% sure the man she saw was the same man seen by Gail Cooper yet that is accepted as fact. How does that work ?
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Alfred R Jones

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #486 on: February 24, 2016, 11:55:24 AM »
Quote from: Faithlilly on February 24, 2016, 11:40:02 AM
Yet Tanner was only 80% sure the man she saw was the same man seen by Gail Cooper yet that is accepted as fact. How does that work ?
Sorry - I don't get you.  What have I (or anyone else) accepted as fact? 
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #487 on: February 24, 2016, 12:00:57 PM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 11:55:24 AM
Sorry - I don't get you.  What have I (or anyone else) accepted as fact?

Let's put it this way Alfie. Do you believe that Tanner's claim that she was 80% sure that the man she and Gail Cooper was the same person means he probably was ?
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Alfred R Jones

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #488 on: February 24, 2016, 12:05:34 PM »
Quote from: Faithlilly on February 24, 2016, 12:00:57 PM
Let's put it this way Alfie. Do you believe that Tanner's claim that she was 80% sure that the man she and Gail Cooper was the same person means he probably was ?
Nope, got no view on it at all. 
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #489 on: February 24, 2016, 12:13:47 PM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 12:05:34 PM
Nope, got no view on it at all.

Course you don't  8(0(*
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Offline G-Unit

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #490 on: February 24, 2016, 12:27:35 PM »
Quote from: ferryman on February 24, 2016, 12:11:53 PM
Martin Smith is (now) 100% certain he did not see Gerry.

That, I believe 100%

I am also 100% certain Martin Smith is (now) right.

And 100% certain he was 100% wrong in his original (mistaken, but honest, belief).

How's that for proper use of statistics?

He still produced e-fits that looked like Gerry Mccann. E-fits that Oakley's investigators added to a report which was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends. A report that the McCanns gave to SY, but SY also asked the Oakley investigators for it. Why, if they already had it?
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Alfred R Jones

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Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #491 on: February 24, 2016, 12:29:44 PM »
Quote from: Faithlilly on February 24, 2016, 12:13:47 PM
Course you don't  8(0(*
No I don't.  I am always honest with you, it's a shame it's not reciprocated, but there we are. 
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Offline Eleanor

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #492 on: February 24, 2016, 12:38:09 PM »
Quote from: G-Unit on February 24, 2016, 12:27:35 PM
He still produced e-fits that looked like Gerry Mccann. E-fits that Oakley's investigators added to a report which was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends. A report that the McCanns gave to SY, but SY also asked the Oakley investigators for it. Why, if they already had it?

Neither of those E-fits look even remotely like Gerry McCann.  God knows where that idea came from.
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Alfred R Jones

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #493 on: February 24, 2016, 12:56:13 PM »
Quote from: Eleanor on February 24, 2016, 12:38:09 PM
Neither of those E-fits look even remotely like Gerry McCann.  God knows where that idea came from.
I have always thought the same.  They look like him in that they are male, clean shaven with short hair and no major distinguishing features and that's it - they look like much more a number of different people which has been pointed out before.
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Offline faithlilly

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #494 on: February 24, 2016, 01:55:25 PM »
Quote from: Alfred R Jones on February 24, 2016, 12:29:44 PM
No I don't.  I am always honest with you, it's a shame it's not reciprocated, but there we are.

It sounds like you are calling me a liar Alfie. You do know that is against forum rules don't you ?
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Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?
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