Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?

[AnneGuedes]

Anne - thanks for the link - that's very understated...........its a man giving an account of seeing a man carrying a child, when the MaCann's believed their child had been abducted and the child matches the description. Its a very hot lead, surely that's not denied.   The majority of the Smith party are young and would therefore be excused from not giving statements.  Of the 4 adults (think thats right) 3 give broadly matching statements of whom they saw.  It was as strong a lead at the Turner sighting........ ?

It was a very hot lead, yes, and an exceptional one at that. Nobody ever saw an abductor walking in a village with his prey before the dead of night.

[icabodcrane]

The worrying thing is,   why did the McCanns relentlessy push the  Jane Tanner witnessed  'abduction'  ...  the one that happened to give Gerry an air-tight alibi  ...  whilst all but ignoring the Smith sighting that their own private investigators advised  them should be prioritised  ?  ( advice that was subsequently air-brushed out of history )

[AnneGuedes]

The worrying thing is,   why did the McCanns relentlessy push the  Jane Tanner witnessed  'abduction'  ...  the one that happened to give Gerry an air-tight alibi  ...  whilst all but ignoring the Smith sighting that their own private investigators advised  them should be prioritised  ?  ( advice that was subsequently air-brushed out of history )

It gave Mr McCann an "air-tight" alibi, but it had a considerable price : he had to be on a side of a door whilst Tannerman was on the other side, pressured against the wall, without hearing Tannerman's heart beating in the silence of the sleeping bed room... Only Enid Blyton I'm afraid.

[sadie]

So what reason do you have for believing Martin Smith was not genuine ?

He may be but then again he might not be too happy that out of 8 peeps he was the only one who thought that the way that Gerry carried Sean down the plane steps was the way that bundleman carried the little girl, so the man was 60-80% likely to be Gerry.
 
It is very significant that Martin Smith was the only one out of 8 who thought fit to make a statement that he saw this resemblance.   Remember it was only based upon the way they both held the child and the way they looked down, NOT on features or anything else.

Maybe his wife saw a resemblance but maybe she didn't.

I repeat it is only hearsay

[sadie]

So what is unusual about the way Gerry is carrying his deeply sleeping son?

It is the way any caring  parent would carry their child safely.

[Benice]

So what is unusual about the way Gerry is carrying his deeply sleeping son?

It is the way any caring  parent would carry their child safely.

IIRC Martin Smith said it was also the way GM put his head down.   Well you would do that wouldn't you - to see where you were going down the aircraft steps, and to avoid falling with a child in your arms. 

Night night.

[icabodcrane]

So what is unusual about the way Gerry is carrying his deeply sleeping son?

It is the way any caring  parent would carry their child safely.

I agree  ...  it IS  the most natural way to carry a child

So why did the McCanns misinterpret it in that documentary they commissioned  ?

Why did they  alter  the Smith family witness statements and show the child being  carried in a different way   than they had described  ...  using Jane Tanner's   (  unnatural  )  carrying method   instead

Why DID  they do that  ? 

[Aiofe]

Both Martin Smith and his wife were interviewed again, the review team found them to be credible witnesses and both said the man they saw could have been Gerry McCann.

And no independent witness places Gerry at the tapas table at 10pm or thereabouts, that is a fact.

I believe that his wife refused to be interviewed again.

[Aiofe]

No other person thought it was useful to make a statement, Mr Smith stated his wife had the same opinion. Don't you understand he was not denouncing someone as the thousands did after CW, he thought and thought again, perhaps he would have doubted himself if his wife hadn't agreed. But she did and he felt that, as a citizen, he had to inform the police.

I often think my wife agrees with me, but she later disabuses me of that idea. Mrs Smith has never stated formally that she recognised Gerry McCann despite being given the opportunity to do so..

[Aiofe]

In this country an identification parade would definitely been staged and I believe something similar was being arranged by Amaral before he was removed from the case.

For obvious reasons, no identity parade would have been legal under English Law.

Think why not!

[Aiofe]

gilet, it sounds like you've been watching too many American tv cop shows (and fantasising that you're living in one). By the way, we're not in a court of law here, we can consider whatever we want to consider. For the police, such statements are valuable because they give leads. If Gerry McCann is ever put on trial for the disapparance of Madeleine I doubt the Smith sightings are going to be the main evidence, I'm sure they'll have a lot more before they ever get to that stage.

Besides, since Mrs Smith is apparently still alive she can testify what she wants, if there is ever a court hearing.

Aoife Smith is 60% sure that the little girl she saw was Madeleine.

She was 60% sure that the girl 'could have been' Madeleine.

So that sounds like fifty fifty as a possibility, not as an identification.

[Kazcutt]

Both Martin Smith and his wife were interviewed again, the review team found them to be credible witnesses and both said the man they saw could have been Gerry McCann.

And no independent witness places Gerry at the tapas table at 10pm or thereabouts, that is a fact.

They said on crime watch the man said he looked like Gerry
Not Gerry .the police said on crime watch it was translation error .

[Benita]

but they fled Portugal just before amaral was going to to arrest them ...dontcha ya know 

[Cariad]

Personally I think that Mr Smith is a credible witness. He hasn't courted any publicity, he did state anything as fact, he seemed reluctant to come forward with the (60-80%) info.

Should Mr Smith give a statement to police saying that with hindsight he now believes it wasn't Gerry, I'd believe that too.

The guy is credible.

[Benice]

You would expect that any cunning plan which involved burying a body -  would at least include a spade.