Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Alfie]

So she woke up, left the apartment and at some point was picked up by a ne'er-do-well never to be seen again? So why is this theory so resisted?

For the reasons I have given above. 

[slartibartfast]

Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.

I sense a degree of backtracking here.

[Alfie]

I sense a degree of backtracking here.

Then I'd check your senses if I were you.

[Wonderfulspam]

Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.

....& the gate at the bottom of the stairs.

This all sounds rather familiar, oh yeah, that's right, it was me that pointed all this out.

[Alfie]

Clearly not the right sort of abduction 

If Slarti and Angelo are correct then that is an abduction, and the parents were not responsible for hiding the body.  If it happened that way (which I very much doubt) then the McCanns had no hand in their child's disappearance and would be thoroughly vindicated.  So, why do you think it's "not the right sort of abduction, wink smiley?"

[Alice Purjorick]

....& the gate at the bottom of the stairs.

This all sounds rather familiar, oh yeah, that's right, it was me that pointed all this out.

Two birds with one stone.
Give the man a coconut.
 

[ShiningInLuz]

There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.

The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.

I think you be missing a couple of points.

Overnight at the OC there was a single receptionist, therefore considering any form of receptionist checking on children does not apply to the OC. Ad the OC did not have bus loads of people turning up overnight, but who cares.

The back garden issue.  At the moment, I happen to have a driveway where the furthest point is at least 50m from the house.  But our alfresco dining capabilities are simply not that far away.  When we move to Portelas, the garden is a lot longer than 50m.  But the alfresco dining capabilities will be around 10m from the rear of the house.  And should we choose to eat alfresco while the littlies sleep (one aged 6 and one aged one) there will be a baby monitor relaying their ever move to us.

Perhaps someone with the links can remind us which way the McCanns were facing?  To monitor rear access you need to point that way.

[G-Unit]

I think you be missing a couple of points.

Overnight at the OC there was a single receptionist, therefore considering any form of receptionist checking on children does not apply to the OC. Ad the OC did not have bus loads of people turning up overnight, but who cares.

The back garden issue.  At the moment, I happen to have a driveway where the furthest point is at least 50m from the house.  But our alfresco dining capabilities are simply not that far away.  When we move to Portelas, the garden is a lot longer than 50m.  But the alfresco dining capabilities will be around 10m from the rear of the house.  And should we choose to eat alfresco while the littlies sleep (one aged 6 and one aged one) there will be a baby monitor relaying their ever move to us.

Perhaps someone with the links can remind us which way the McCanns were facing?  To monitor rear access you need to point that way.

I don't think Sadie was referring to the OC, but to hotels where the receptionist 'listens'.

Dianne was facing the tapas entrance. Moving clockwise were Matt, David and Gerry. all with their backs to block 5. Fiona was next to Gerry, then Kate. Jane, Rachael and Russell were next, probably facing block 5.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/FIONA-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm

Rachael said she could see the top half of the patio doors only; not that she particularly looked.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RACHAEL-OLDFIELD-ROGATORY.htm

As a point of interest the Tapas pool wasn't particularly small at 37 meters long. An Olympic pool is 50 meters, but many pools are 25 meters.

[Alice Purjorick]

Children taken by strangers or slight acquaintances represent only one-hundredth of 1 percent of all missing children.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-missing-children/2013/05/10/efee398c-b8b4-11e2-aa9e-a02b765ff0ea_story.html

See post 98

[Mr Gray]

Children taken by strangers or slight acquaintances represent only one-hundredth of 1 percent of all missing children.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-missing-children/2013/05/10/efee398c-b8b4-11e2-aa9e-a02b765ff0ea_story.html

See post 98

Most of us know how rare stranger abductions are
Doesn't affect the odds on Maddie being abducted

[ferryman]

Statistics are irrelevant, here.

You only need to know that a thing has happened to know that it could happen (however rarely).

Ally that to the fact that there is not an iota of evidence (of anything culpable) against the McCanns or any of their friends, and you have the definitive answer: Madeleine was abducted from her bed by a stranger (so far as we, the public, are concerned) as yet unidentified. 

[Alfie]

Most of us know how rare stranger abductions are
Doesn't affect the odds on Maddie being abducted

According to information from that link one child  was abducted roughly every 3 days by a stranger in the US in 2002, and roughly every nine days one abducted child was killed by their abductor.

So although rare, try telling that to the kids and families affected. 

[sadie]

There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.

The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.

Unless the street lamp was broken, the patio area was bathed in a soft light.  The street lamp was and is directly across the road from the patio area of 5A.  There have been no reports that the street lamp was broken that I had seen.  Have you?

It is reported somewhere that the gardeners came in and pruned the plants and shrubs.  I have absolutely no idea where that is reported any more.  I saw it about 6 years ago, or so.   IIRC, the gardeners names were mentioned ... but I cant remember them either.  Soz.

[sadie]

SY haven'the found anything Sadie.


Mind you they have plenty of files.

ORLY ?

[stephen25000]

Statistics are irrelevant, here.

You only need to know that a thing has happened to know that it could happen (however rarely).

Ally that to the fact that there is not an iota of evidence (of anything culpable) against the McCanns or any of their friends, and you have the definitive answer: Madeleine was abducted from her bed by a stranger (so far as we, the public, are concerned) as yet unidentified.

A timely reminder.

A lack of evidence is what marks this case.

There is nothing to show that any one of the three scenarios has any more  than the other two in explaining what happens.

However, if there was no abduction, then all roads point in one direction.