Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

Interesting how people can  interpret the meaning of posts differently.

 A glass can be half empty and yet be half full

[Eleanor]

How ironic that your post should bear no relation to this thread topic.

My post was on topic as related to so many of the posts by Anne Guedes being off topic.

Stating that people are going off topic is not off topic.

[pegasus]

There are no parallel universes, one of these is 100% statistically correct:
"There was an abduction"
"There wasn't an abduction"
In the abduction scenario, is it confined entirely to the one room , or is also included the lounge and other room?

[jassi]

There are no parallel universes, one of these is 100% statistically correct:
"There was an abduction"
"There wasn't an abduction"
In the abduction scenario, is it confined entirely to the one room , or is also included the lounge and other room?

Quite right, though in the absence of hard evidence, either option is equally valid.

As there seems to be no forensics to point to the presence of an intruder, one cannot exclude the possibility of one being anywhere within the apartment.

[pegasus]

Quite right, though in the absence of hard evidence, either option is equally valid.

As there seems to be no forensics to point to the presence of an intruder, one cannot exclude the possibility of one being anywhere within the apartment.

I see the two "sides" as one. One investigator starting with "abduction", another starting with "non-abduction", if they are truly proficient and seek the truth, will both reach the single statistically true solution.
For both those investigators a shared and important question is: which room(s)? All IMO.

[Redblossom]

 stats, its extremely rare........MOST abused and or abducted kids are at the hands of family and or family friends.......so no, not 50 50 she was abducted...more like 95/5

bbl

[John]

Let's all keep calm please. 

[Eleanor]

Let's all keep calm please.

Sorry, John.  Just a bit pissed off with it all.  And the last thing I need is a lesson in the Classics.  We aren't all stupid, which is what Anne Guedes implies.

I shall now desist, and bog off somewhere else.  My serious posts are always treated with contempt anyway.

[John]

I agree Eleanor that too many posts are straying from the topic under discussion recently so I have asked the moderators to clamp down on such violations.  It is hard enough for new readers to follow discussions without having them diverted mid thread.

Members can start a new topic at any time if they feel an issue is worth pursuing.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Is it the parental involvement that would entail those other crimes or is it the insistence in proclaiming abduction from bed, unprecedented event that the media echo chamber multiplied, ruining any human control ?
An accidental homicide would be far more plausible than an abduction from bed or even from street, but there's a rub, it would mean that the McCanns didn't say the truth and the idea that such a beautiful couple of doctors could have lied is unbearable, so unbearable that... it can't be. Any explanation will do, but the lie is taboo.
Denying reality.. such a common process though.
We know nevertheless that, without real motive, the McCanns didn't say the truth to the media which they criticized for... their lies..
Really revealing, Mrs McCann tells in "Madeleine" that they lied as if the fact of revealing it launched her on the track of truth (fault confessed is half redressed). Revealing that she lied deleted the lie and purified her.
There no other reason for this confession.

Allow me to correct you, SH, the Ecclesiast, not David, said there is nothing new under the sun. He said he was David's son but it doesn't seem he was Solomon.

I'm not sure if we can attribute the scale of the Find Madeleine campaign merely to the fact that modern technology assists it. It didn't just snowball of its own accord (though obviously the tabloids have their own reasons for continuing to promote the case). In the main it has been driven by the McCanns. Without their persistence the case may well have been forgotten a long time ago.

My suggestion is that it would take a very sick person to drive such a huge campaign if they were guilty of something. And there's just no evidence that the McCanns have such problems.

Yes it was indeed the Ecclesiast (Kohelet) not King David. Thanks for the correction!

[Redblossom]

I'm not sure if we can attribute the scale of the Find Madeleine campaign merely to the fact that modern technology assists it. It didn't just snowball of its own accord (though obviously the tabloids have their own reasons for continuing to promote the case). In the main it has been driven by the McCanns. Without their persistence the case may well have been forgotten a long time ago.

My suggestion is that it would take a very sick person to drive such a huge campaign if they were guilty of something. And there's just no evidence that the McCanns have such problems.

Yes it was indeed the Ecclesiast (Kohelet) not King David. Thanks for the correction!

Or desperate.....or driven into a corner.....or unable to get off the tiger they unleashed....

[Sherlock Holmes]

Or desperate.....or driven into a corner.....or unable to get off the tiger they unleashed....

Yes, that would be very difficult.

But if you're saying that the media campaign is a tiger rather than the McCanns themselves (even if they unleashed it) are you saying it's not a deliberate cover-up?

[Redblossom]

The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.

And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....

Just two thirds in two years.....and to date cost just over 6m quid......and as you say nothng yet..still.....you never know whats round the corner



 

[Redblossom]

Yes, that would be very difficult.

But if you're saying that the media campaign is a tiger rather than the McCanns themselves (even if they unleashed it) are you saying it's not a deliberate cover-up?

I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO

Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child plus their accounts are dodgy plus they have told half truths and untruths all along.....plus they have railroaded other peoples lives and accused innocents of possibly being inolved.....plus they have blamed the whole world and its wife for madeleines demise.....

Edited

[Sherlock Holmes]

I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO

Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child

I agree with you very much that they have said and done a lot of things that are odd. Ill-advised and not their fault some of them, but odd nonetheless.

As you know I am more than willing to criticise the McCanns for this aspect of their actions, as I don't believe they are doing themselves any favours by handling some things in the way they do. But being odd in itself is not a crime, nor evidence of one.