Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[AnneGuedes]

In Portugal, in 2010, 41 children went missing, among whom 10 abducted by their father or mother. The 31 other left either their family (conflictual situation) or an institution.
Abduction by stranger = 0
(BTW, in Portugal there never was an abduction from bed).
http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1949937

[Mr Gray]

And the evidence for abduction is?....

as i have said...you need to understand what evidence actually means

[Lyall]

Teach us, Dave

[Lyall]

We're all ears

[Mr Gray]

Just like the evidence of the dogs.

sorry dogs alerts arent evidence...according to grime

[Mr Gray]

In Portugal, in 2010, 41 children went missing, among whom 10 abducted by their father or mother. The 31 other left either their family (conflictual situation) or an institution.
Abduction by stranger = 0
(BTW, in Portugal there never was an abduction from bed).
http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1949937

has there been an abduction from a bath

[Benice]

Shall we compare the behaviour of the mccanns who on several successive nights went to booze and eat, with the Needhams behaviour?

So Benice, what do you think happened to Ben ?

Was it :

Mr. Spotty; Mr. No Face ; Mr. Swarthy Faced Johnny Foreigner; Mr. or  Mrs. Burglar; or perhaps Mr. Sardine Muncher ?

The field is yours. 

Even though Ben was abducted when he was unsupervised and no evidence of an abduction was found - and we only have the family's word for what happened - I totally believe them - and for the same reasons why I believe Madeleine's parents. 

They are two ordinary families who both had a child abducted in a foreign country, neither of whom have been found, and both families are still looking for them.

IIRC the Needhams have shown their support for the McCanns - so maybe you would like to sneer at them too.   

[Cariad]

as i have said...you need to understand what evidence actually means

OK, I have my dictionary open to 'E', now tell me the Evidence please.

[Redblossom]

There's no evidence whatsoever of that and the police, even the best on the planet, bases its belief on facts, not on words for facts.

BINGO

Uncorroborated hearsay at best..

so, apart from the "evidence" the shutters and windows were open, what other evidence is there? Of an abduction dont recall any at all.....look forwrd to reading it tomorrow

 

[j.rob]

SY do believe them - unless you think they are part of some huge conspiracy?   And what would be the reason for that?

It's nonsense to say there is no evidence.   The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends.  Therefore it was a stranger.    That is what SY believe - otherwise they would not have ruled out the McCanns and their friends from the enquiry.

Those are the facts.  Unlike us, SY have all the professionally translated files, the expertise and experience of over 30 police officers and the ability to interview people whom we can't,  and therefore know vastly more about this case that we can ever hope to.     How people can keep ignoring that monumental fact of life is beyond me.

   

Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?

The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.

Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends.  Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......

Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?

How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?

[j.rob]

Even though Ben was abducted when he was unsupervised and no evidence of an abduction was found - and we only have the family's word for what happened - I totally believe them - and for the same reasons why I believe Madeleine's parents. 

They are two ordinary families who both had a child abducted in a foreign country, neither of whom have been found, and both families are still looking for them.

IIRC the Needhams have shown their support for the McCanns - so maybe you would like to sneer at them too.

Yes, I totally believe the Needham family. It is very sweet of them to support the McCanns. However, the Needhams did not hire dodgy detectives, phone Sky News, hire reputation managers, extradition lawyers and mediia spin doctors plus set up a limited company to fund their legal fees within a few weeks of their son going missing.

[icabodcrane]

Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?

The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.

Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends.  Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......

Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?

How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?

I am begining to suspect that Scotland Yard are being cagey    (  and that their  "The McCanns and their friends are not suspects"  may be part of that caginess  ) 

The reason I say that,  is because there appears to a rift between the McCanns and Scotland Yard at the moment,  with the McCanns almost  'in denial'  about Andy Redwoods  dismissal of their chosen  prime suspect  (  Tannerman  ) 

[Benice]

Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?

The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.

Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends.  Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......

Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?

How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?

SY have publically stated that the McCanns and their friends are NOT suspects or even persons of interest.   From the evidence they have examined they believe an abduction by a stranger took place and it is on those grounds that the case is being conducted.   They are keeping the McCanns updated.       If you don't even know that much then there is no point in further discussion. 

Do you think SY are in the business of conning the British Public and are conducting some huge conspiracy which involves pulling the wool over the public's eyes and lying to them to the extent of even making the Crimewatch programme?    They would lose all credibility if they did that.   No-one would ever believe or trust anything they said again.

The whole idea is crazy.     Common sense please!

[Lyall]

SY have publically stated that the McCanns and their friends are NOT suspects or even persons of interest.   From the evidence they have examined they believe an abduction by a stranger took place and it is on those grounds that the case is being conducted.   They are keeping the McCanns updated.       If you don't even know that much then there is no point in further discussion. 

Do you think SY are in the business of conning the British Public and are conducting some huge conspiracy which involves pulling the wool over the public's eyes and lying to them to the extent of even making the Crimewatch programme?    They would lose all credibility if they did that.   No-one would ever believe or trust anything they said again.

The whole idea is crazy.     Common sense please!

No, Benice, Redwood said that to TV reporters to avoid controversy. They have yet to say anything officially. We have no idea what they actually think.

[Sherlock Holmes]

j rob  has just  won this debate davel

It is nowhere near as simple as that.

I'm not much of a mathematician, but if the vast majority of those 86% of completed child abductions involve custody battles and other family disputes, and most of the rest involve cases of abuse, then the percentage chance of the McCanns being involved is much, much lower.

We know for a fact that there was no custody battle going on between the McCanns; nor was there any evidence of abuse.

Therefore we return to the important fact that statistics do not apply in the individual case, a point I am not going to elaborate on here as it has already been well established and is also a matter of common sense.

If we knew absolutely nothing about the Madeleine McCann case; if the words Gerry and Kate McCann were just names on a piece of paper to us, then we would cite statistical chance.

Knowing more, however, we are able to narrow matters down and form a (slightly) clearer view.