Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 250645 times)

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Lyall

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #990 on: February 01, 2014, 09:03:02 PM »
It is exactly a sense of self preservation that would prevent a person from carrying out the things the McCanns have carried out since Madeleine's disappearance, were they to have been carried out for the purpose of defrauding people.

It would have been too much of a risk not only to their reputations and careers - but to their entire liberty.

Nobody can predict the future, and pretty soon things can be out of control.

Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #991 on: February 01, 2014, 09:10:56 PM »
Nobody can predict the future, and pretty soon things can be out of control.

But the McCanns aren't only caught up in things - they have been driving their various cases and campaigns. Very thirsty work.

Lyall

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #992 on: February 01, 2014, 09:23:23 PM »
But the McCanns aren't only caught up in things - they have been driving their various cases and campaigns. Very thirsty work.

They certainly are resourceful 8)-)))

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #993 on: February 01, 2014, 09:39:15 PM »
In another case it was the father who aroused the attention of the inspectors: in the middle of a negotiation, with a possible kidnapper, the doctor "was sucking casually one lollipop while reading banalities in sites of the Internet and talking about rugby and football with one of the English police officers".

JP: Ah he was on the phone and sucking on a lollipop wasn't it and laughing and chatting?

GA: Yes! Completely detached from what was going on and about to happen…

JP: So that shocked you in particular?

GA: Me and the colleagues who were present.


Have they found Smithman yet LOL.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #994 on: February 01, 2014, 09:44:21 PM »
So DBS. 8((()*/

Does that make you feel better ?

Meanwhile the point being, if Madeleine has died as many believe, and this was proved, and of course within the circumstances of how she was left, do you seriously believe this pair would be allowed to work with young children or vulnerable adults ?

absolutely yes...do you realise how short we are of consultant cardiologists...especially those who can speak English...the GMC position is that if they struck off every doctor who made a mistake there wouldn't be any doctors left

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #995 on: February 07, 2014, 01:34:33 PM »
The McCanns arrogance is/was breathtaking. It will be their downfall - along with everything else that will bring about their downfall. He was so sure that he would be protected by his buddies that he didn't even pay lip-service to what the Portugese police were doing.

Psychopathic behaviour.

drummer

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #996 on: February 08, 2014, 07:58:20 PM »
Once, I left my baby alone. I checked the windows of my hotel bedroom, closed the door and went downstairs to dinner. The reception on the monitor in the restaurant was terrible; anything could have been happening and I wouldn’t have heard it. The couple in the opposite corner seemed to be having trouble with their monitor too. But it was fine. I knew she was asleep, in her cot, unable to climb out, and there was a smoke alarm in the hotel.
◾Have you ever left your sleeping child in a locked room, whilst you had dinner in another place, escaped for an hour of adult company?
◾Have you ever entertained friends in your back garden whilst your child slept at the front of the house?
◾Do you leave your back door unlocked (not open) whilst you are in your house?
◾Has your child ever been out of sight in a field or park during a game of hide and seek?
◾Have you ever allowed your child to climb into the car on your driveway whilst you did a last minute check of the house, or supervised a quick toddler loo visit?
◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didn’t?

Unless the answer to all of these questions is an emphatic NO, you cannot judge the parents of Madeleine McCann for their actions on the night of her disappearance. Last week I was a voyeur of a Facebook thread on the subject of the McCann tragedy; people were slating them for their actions, practically demanding that they be punished. Well you might as well punish thousands of other parents who, if they were honest, have left their child in situations that were not 100% lock-tight.

Praia da Luz: the perfect family holiday…

"The McCann's appartment"
Photo courtesy of the Guardian
 
You may wonder why I feel so strongly about this. The year before Madeleine McCann was abducted, I had the pleasure of a family holiday in Praia da Luz. Our holiday house was directly opposite the pool entrance, about 100 metres from the McCann appartment. It was a great holiday; pool and bars on the doorstep, gorgeous beach, lovely people, delicious food.

My baby was a noisy sleeper, who often cried in her sleep, but didn’t wake, so we had opted for  a 2 bedroom house. We left the bedroom doors open so we could hear her if she woke, but a small cry could go unnoticed. The man in the house next door was a heavy snorer, and kept me awake for hours at night. In the end I wore earplugs. It was hot, so we left the windows ajar in the baby’s room. We locked the shutters down, just as the McCanns did, but we left some fresh air circulating for her.It could have been us…..

When does safety become obsession?

It never occurred to me that my baby was at risk. But had our appartment been targetted that week, I have no doubt that our safety net was not strong enough. We were in the house. External fittings were locked. But would we have heard an intruder hell bent on secrecy?

In the months after Madeleine McCann’s disappearance, safety became an obsession for me. 30º heat or not, the windows remained locked at night (I still can’t shake this habit). If I allowed my kids to run down and switch on the TV of a weekend morning I would get a lie-in, but they can’t, because the alarm is  always on overnight.

Statistics are no comfort

I met a child-protection police officer who maintains that statistically, it is likely that the McCanns were involved in their daughter’s disappearance. But what use are statistics unless they are 100%? If your child fell into that unlucky 0.3% bracket, would the statistics comfort you? Of course not! It angers me that so many people put such energy into shouting statistics and castigating her parents for their actions that night. “Oh, statistics say it was them, so that’s alright then, case closed.” Rubbish! My feeling is that people take this stance so they can brush the issue under the carpet as being something they, as responsible parents, do not have to worry about. Wise-up! That 0.3% matters!

You are never 100% safe

I know that had the McCanns been in their appartment that night, it would not necessarily have prevented Madeleine’s abduction. Two years ago, a woman living not far from us, got up as usual, put the kettle on, and opened her back door. Maybe she put some washing on the line and came back in for her cup of tea. Some minutes later a stranger walked in through her back door and stabbed her to death. Her 18 year old son rushed to help her, and ended up stabbing her assailant, who also died.

My proximity to these two tragedies has left me obsessed with the safety of my family. All of those questions at the beginning of this article? I can answer yes, to every single one of them. And I bet most of you can too. I will never again do any one of those things, and that is probably good. But it shouldn’t be necessary. When a crime is committed, do not turn on the victim with recriminations.

Madeleine McCann is 9 years old today, 12 May 2012. She is still missing. A criminal is still free. A family is still devastated. Do not judge them, help them.


http://www.actuallymummy.co.uk/2012/05/12/madeleine-mccann-who-are-we-to-judge/


Cariad

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #997 on: February 08, 2014, 09:01:16 PM »
Once, I left my baby alone. I checked the windows of my hotel bedroom, closed the door and went downstairs to dinner. The reception on the monitor in the restaurant was terrible; anything could have been happening and I wouldn’t have heard it. The couple in the opposite corner seemed to be having trouble with their monitor too. But it was fine. I knew she was asleep, in her cot, unable to climb out, and there was a smoke alarm in the hotel.
◾Have you ever left your sleeping child in a locked room, whilst you had dinner in another place, escaped for an hour of adult company?
◾Have you ever entertained friends in your back garden whilst your child slept at the front of the house?
◾Do you leave your back door unlocked (not open) whilst you are in your house?
◾Has your child ever been out of sight in a field or park during a game of hide and seek?
◾Have you ever allowed your child to climb into the car on your driveway whilst you did a last minute check of the house, or supervised a quick toddler loo visit?
◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didn’t?

Unless the answer to all of these questions is an emphatic NO, you cannot judge the parents of Madeleine McCann for their actions on the night of her disappearance. Last week I was a voyeur of a Facebook thread on the subject of the McCann tragedy; people were slating them for their actions, practically demanding that they be punished. Well you might as well punish thousands of other parents who, if they were honest, have left their child in situations that were not 100% lock-tight.

Praia da Luz: the perfect family holiday…

"The McCann's appartment"
Photo courtesy of the Guardian
 
You may wonder why I feel so strongly about this. The year before Madeleine McCann was abducted, I had the pleasure of a family holiday in Praia da Luz. Our holiday house was directly opposite the pool entrance, about 100 metres from the McCann appartment. It was a great holiday; pool and bars on the doorstep, gorgeous beach, lovely people, delicious food.

My baby was a noisy sleeper, who often cried in her sleep, but didn’t wake, so we had opted for  a 2 bedroom house. We left the bedroom doors open so we could hear her if she woke, but a small cry could go unnoticed. The man in the house next door was a heavy snorer, and kept me awake for hours at night. In the end I wore earplugs. It was hot, so we left the windows ajar in the baby’s room. We locked the shutters down, just as the McCanns did, but we left some fresh air circulating for her.It could have been us…..

When does safety become obsession?

It never occurred to me that my baby was at risk. But had our appartment been targetted that week, I have no doubt that our safety net was not strong enough. We were in the house. External fittings were locked. But would we have heard an intruder hell bent on secrecy?

In the months after Madeleine McCann’s disappearance, safety became an obsession for me. 30º heat or not, the windows remained locked at night (I still can’t shake this habit). If I allowed my kids to run down and switch on the TV of a weekend morning I would get a lie-in, but they can’t, because the alarm is  always on overnight.

Statistics are no comfort

I met a child-protection police officer who maintains that statistically, it is likely that the McCanns were involved in their daughter’s disappearance. But what use are statistics unless they are 100%? If your child fell into that unlucky 0.3% bracket, would the statistics comfort you? Of course not! It angers me that so many people put such energy into shouting statistics and castigating her parents for their actions that night. “Oh, statistics say it was them, so that’s alright then, case closed.” Rubbish! My feeling is that people take this stance so they can brush the issue under the carpet as being something they, as responsible parents, do not have to worry about. Wise-up! That 0.3% matters!

You are never 100% safe

I know that had the McCanns been in their appartment that night, it would not necessarily have prevented Madeleine’s abduction. Two years ago, a woman living not far from us, got up as usual, put the kettle on, and opened her back door. Maybe she put some washing on the line and came back in for her cup of tea. Some minutes later a stranger walked in through her back door and stabbed her to death. Her 18 year old son rushed to help her, and ended up stabbing her assailant, who also died.

My proximity to these two tragedies has left me obsessed with the safety of my family. All of those questions at the beginning of this article? I can answer yes, to every single one of them. And I bet most of you can too. I will never again do any one of those things, and that is probably good. But it shouldn’t be necessary. When a crime is committed, do not turn on the victim with recriminations.

Madeleine McCann is 9 years old today, 12 May 2012. She is still missing. A criminal is still free. A family is still devastated. Do not judge them, help them.


http://www.actuallymummy.co.uk/2012/05/12/madeleine-mccann-who-are-we-to-judge/

If you click on the link, the comments make interesting reading. Not much support there.

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #998 on: February 09, 2014, 12:16:18 AM »

◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didnt


pointless example as back door was deliberately left unlocked night after night

Though I agree in principle with the general tenor of her apologist argument
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 12:18:07 AM by Redblossom »

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #999 on: June 20, 2016, 11:28:20 PM »
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain.  The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.

Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration.  If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.

Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 05:55:26 PM by John »
What's up, old man?

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1000 on: June 21, 2016, 07:56:59 AM »
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain.  The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.

Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration.  If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.

Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.

statisics show that if the parents are not suspects...then abduction is the most likely possibility and is there most likely to be what happened...remember in working out the odds all variables have to add up to one
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 05:17:01 PM by John »

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1001 on: June 21, 2016, 08:12:53 AM »
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain.  The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.

Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration.  If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.

Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.

statistics do not tell you what will happen they tell you what is likely to happen.


statistics are often applied in single cases ....that's how we know Leicester were likely to be relegated...that's also how we know Leicester are unlikely to win the premiership this season...although the odds will not be 5000/1 this season
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 05:20:54 PM by John »

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1002 on: June 21, 2016, 08:14:57 AM »
Not quite right. The probabilities of each possible cause must add up to one, not the causes (variables?) themselves. Unless you can identify every possible cause then the probabilities will never add up to one.

you are using semantics...the possible causes are parental involvement ...abduction...woke and wandered. Do you have any others...either tell us what they are or perhaps stop contradicting me

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1003 on: June 21, 2016, 08:16:44 AM »
in this instance I certainly am in a postion to correct sil...in fact alice came to exactly the same conclusion as me as you have just done...all possible outcomes must add up to unity
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 05:41:12 PM by John »

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1004 on: June 21, 2016, 08:22:04 AM »
you are using semantics...the possible causes are parental involvement ...abduction...woke and wandered. Do you have any others...either tell us what they are or perhaps stop contradicting me

I am pointing out the inaccuracies of your statements, I know you don't like that but it needs doing. While I disagree with SiLs 42% the need for the sum of any identified subset of probabilities to equal one is incorrect.

You can't just say three causes so 33.33333% probability of each, you need to identify a realistic probability of each cause which you have never done.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.