Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.
Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.
I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.
So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.
And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with - that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.
If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.
I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.
This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect - linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.
This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.
Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.
So are you saying that she wandered out and was taken by a gang working in the Iberian Penisula? The location I agree with, it would be easy to move a child and end up even in Africa, but I dont agree with this particular location.
PDL is a close knit community and very popular with expats.
Not only that it was slightly out of season so not as busy as it would be in the summer months, where a lot of strangers hanging about would not have been so much noticed or standing out like sore thumbs.
Yes we are told there were odd people seen, but were there really? Its a biggish village with people toing and froing hardly unusual to see a few odd people stood about.
You mentioned quite a few children taken in the Iberian Penisular. I actually checked every single missing child in Portugal, and a high percentage of them were by family or someone they knew and although no body found it was thought they had died. I found one where they believe the boy had been taken by a gang, but then there is a guy I believe in prison over him....
Sadly there are so many lost children in Eastern Europe that gangs do not need to take children away from holiday camps.
As to the McCanns well yes you make a good point, but it does happen. Just recently the lady in france comes to mind she kept it up for months..........
http://www.thelocal.fr/20130926/mother-of-missing-fiona-admits-daughter-was-killedThere have been other cases of this all over the world.....
The McCanns are not normal people either, they are professional people used to dealing with difficult decisions and also they have friends in high places. They could have done it and got away with it I am a cynic until someone shows me POSITIVE proof they had nothing to do with their childs disappearance there will always be that doubt in my mind.
As to the chances of the child being abducted. I would say about 5% chance. I think she could have been taken by someone who she knew it niggles me but I think she knew the person who took her, and she went on foot...through the front door.
I think you have given it a lot of thought, but for me the location was totally WRONG.
Thats why there has never been a child taken from bed in this are EVER....tooooo risky.
