Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Montclair]

Only in your opinion Stephen.  Kate McCann is a witness to the window/shutters being open and it's obvious that SY have deemed her to be a credible witness. 

The first task IMO for the SY Team would have been to thoroughly investigate and examine the McCanns and their friends-  both on a personal face to face basis and also by conducting all kinds of  background checks on them.      It's obvious that those investigations produced nothing to cast any doubt on the veracity of the McCanns and their friends. 

If that wasn't the case there would have been no public announcement by SY that neither the McCanns nor their friends were considered to be suspects or even persons of interest in this case.

If you believe you are better situated to know more than the SY Team know about this case and to believe your knowledge of the McCanns and their friends is superior to theirs  -  then that's your prerogative. 

 

 

Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.

[jassi]

Madeleine had disappeared and the shutters and window had been opened by person or persons unknown.   That is evidence of an abduction.   

Whether you want to believe it or not is immateriail -  as the people who matter - i.e. SY -  obviously do believe the McCanns account of how they found the room as they are treating this case as one of 'stranger abduction'.   

Anyone who thinks the SY team came to to that conclusion lightly - is being totally unrealistic IMO.





   

 

No, its evidence of a disappearance, cause unknown.

[stephen25000]

Only in your opinion Stephen.  Kate McCann is a witness to the window/shutters being open and it's obvious that SY have deemed her to be a credible witness. 

The first task IMO for the SY Team would have been to thoroughly investigate and examine the McCanns and their friends-  both on a personal face to face basis and also by conducting all kinds of  background checks on them.      It's obvious that those investigations produced nothing to cast any doubt on the veracity of the McCanns and their friends. 

If that wasn't the case there would have been no public announcement by SY that neither the McCanns nor their friends were considered to be suspects or even persons of interest in this case.

If you believe you are better situated to know more than the SY Team know about this case and to believe your knowledge of the McCanns and their friends is superior to theirs  -  then that's your prerogative. 

 

 

No that is not just my opinion, it is shared by others, as is your opinion of what happened.

As to SY, why haven't they stated openly they have investigated the Mccanns and their associates, and cleared them ?

As far as I can see they have not stated they have even interviewed them.......................

[Mr Gray]

50%? She was either abducted or not, or is that too simples?

 No its not and it is probably nearer the mark than a lot of other answers

[Mr Gray]

Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.

Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.

I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.

So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.

And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and  falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.

Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance -  a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract  -   in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.

Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with -  that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.

If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.

I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.

This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric  (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect -  linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.

This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.

Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.

I think Annes point has no value...a stranger abduction is a stranger abduction and to introduce other factors  such as "from a bed" is not valid. Next she will be saying " A stranger abduction from a bed of a girl with blonde hair named Maddie" to make the abduction seem more unlikely.

[Benice]

Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.

I have no doubt whatsoever that SY would make the PUBLIC announcement which they did -  specifically ruling out the McCanns and their friends if they did not believe that was the case.     To believe otherwise would make them part of some massive conspiracy - and would make me a conspiracy theorist.   I'm as far away from being a conspiracy theorist as you can get - as it seems to me it always involves the suspension or intelligent reasoned thought, common sense and logic.

We're talking about an ordinary, run of the mill couple from Leicester who went on holiday and had the misfortune to have their daughter abducted.     There is not a single scrap of evidence to suggest anything sinister about them or their lives which would provoke some massive cover up by the UK police or anyone else in authority for that matter.   

Neither is there a single scrap of evidence or even a single reason to believe SY - in cohoots with the PT team, are in reality -  playing some intricate convulated game of bluff and double bluff with the McCanns and are going to suddenly pounce on them and arrest them.    The whole idea could not be more preposterous IMO.

Must go out now.   

 

 


   

[Mr Gray]

Only if you believe in an abduction.............................

It seems SY and the PJ do and they are the professionals...perhaps people who don't believe in the abduction are in a very small minority

[Mr Gray]

No, its evidence of a disappearance, cause unknown.

its evidence of a possible abduction

[jassi]

its evidence of a possible abduction

Agreed.

[Mr Gray]

its my opinion that taking all the factors into account, statistically, abduction may well be the most probable cause of Maddies disappearance and this is why SY are following this route.

[Wonderfulspam]

It's my opinion that since bundleman has been debunked & the current 'sighting' being investigated is of a man with a passing resemblence to Gerry McCann carrying an inert child through a dark street towards the ocean, that death & concealment is the more likely scenario.

[Mr Gray]

It's my opinion that since bundleman has been debunked & the current 'sighting' being investigated is of a man with a passing resemblence to Gerry McCann carrying an inert child through a dark street towards the ocean, that death & concealment is the more likely scenario.

 will your opinion change if smithman is debunked

[sadie]

Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.

Montclair

Kate has been open about a number of things that others would hide. 

If some of the posters on here were half as honest as Kate Mccann. the world would be a better place. 

You have heard the expert opinion on here, say that there will be some variance in statements, even from a single person.  It is the norm.

Ot maybe you haven't heard ?   But it is the experts opinion that the variances in the Mccanns and Tapas groups statements are well within the norm.

I am not going to search for the sources, but any honest [ censored word] on here will admit to having seen that expert opinion.



Why should you know better?

[stephen25000]

It seems SY and the PJ do and they are the professionals...perhaps people who don't believe in the abduction are in a very small minority

What is the success rate in solving crimes by the SY and PJ respectively ?

Meanwhile can you say with 100% certainty Madeleine did not die in the apartment  ?

[Wonderfulspam]

will your opinion change if smithman is debunked

Possibly, if someone could give a feasible explanation of the abduction from bed via window scenario, a good reason why their memories of which doors they used etc changed over time & why a death dog alerted to objects & areas associated only with the McCanns and nowhere else.

I haven't seen any so far.