Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

In my opinion, it's about 90% that she was abducted, maybe 10% she met some other fate.

I would agree

[Redblossom]

Its an extremely low possibility pre event but not post event...do you follow

Is that a celestial teapot? Since when did stats change pre and post abduction?


 

[Sherlock Holmes]

There is no place like stoned.

Personally I would recommend cocaine in a seven per cent solution as a far more effective and may I say classier intellectual aid.

[Wonderfulspam]

Its an extremely low possibility pre event but not post event...do you follow

When you factor in the current stongest lead being a 60-80% man heading towards the ocean with an inert child in his arms I'd say it's aproximateley 60-80% more likely she suffered an entireley different fate to abduction.

[Mr Gray]

Is that a celestial teapot? Since when did stats change pre and post abduction?


 

 Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really

[Lyall]

Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really

Some of those facts are still changing

[jassi]

Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really

Its certainly true that attempts have been made to change certain facts.

[Angelo222]

To attain those percentages you have to believe that the shutter and the window were found open.  There is no evidence to support this which renders the entire proposition suspicous.

Dave, you would have been better asking the question as to statistically speaking what was the chance of something befalling the children given their parents conduct.

In that case I would definitely agree to 90%.

[Mr Gray]

My neighbours buy a lottery ticket...chances of winning 14 million to one

Next week there are a fleet of luxury cars on the drive and they are spending large amounts of money...what are the odds that they have won the lottery....odds change pre and post event....

You discount abduction because you are considering the pre event odds

[Redblossom]

Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really

Er no statistics based in facts are about events that have happened not predictions......doh

[Mr Gray]

To attain those percentages you have to believe that the shutter and the window were found open.  There is no evidence to support this which renders the entire proposition suspicous.

Dave, you would have been better asking the question as to statistically speaking what was the chance of something befalling the children given their parents conduct.

In that case I would definitely agree to 90%.

Still very remote...Whatever happened to Maddie was a very remote possibility...pre event of course

[Mr Gray]

Er no statistics based in facts are about events that have happened not predictions......doh

never said they were ...try reading everything again

[Redblossom]

never said they were ...try reading everything again

Yea i read your  post 154 whch is utter codswallop........

[AnneGuedes]

I do however believe it was more likely that she just walked out the front door and was then abducted.

The probability she walked out and was killed by a car is higher, unless you believe she was frightened by someone who was frightened by her because of all the trivial fuss over paedophilia (see Mr O'Brien's rog about the guy who didn't dare to videotape his daughter !)

[Mr Gray]

Yea i read your  post 154 whch is utter codswallop........

That's because you don't understand it