Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 228896 times)

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Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #255 on: January 02, 2014, 03:08:06 PM »
The PJ website promotes any distinguishing features of a missing person... so where does this allegation come from?

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #256 on: January 02, 2014, 03:13:38 PM »
A more organised investigation by whom? Who originally suggested "no media" The GNR or the PJ?

Then what... a provincial force with little experience of such cases?

In case of an abduction, the first approach will be secrecy. Wandering off calls for publicity.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #257 on: January 02, 2014, 03:15:21 PM »
A more organised investigation by whom? Who originally suggested "no media" The GNR or the PJ?

Then what... a provincial force with little experience of such cases?


How successful has the media onslaught approach been?




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Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #258 on: January 02, 2014, 03:28:27 PM »
In case of an abduction, the first approach will be secrecy. Wandering off calls for publicity.

Why would the first approach be secrecy unless there was evidence of a kidnapping for ransom?

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #259 on: January 02, 2014, 03:30:42 PM »
Why would the first approach be secrecy unless there was evidence of a kidnapping for ransom?

How would they know they were investigating a kidnap for ransom until a ransom demand was made?
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Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #260 on: January 02, 2014, 03:31:14 PM »
I agree. A few thoughts...

I don't, however, understand why the seeming lack of stories of abductions from bed in continental Europe is an issue, beyond contributing to a perception of rarity.

- Newborns do get abducted from hospitals by strangers, apparently generally by women desperate for a child. Therefore, the issue isn't just about a "bed", but an older child taken from a bed.

- Why the criterion of a bed, specifically? Would it have made a difference if she'd got up to go to the loo and was actually standing and about to holler?

- Kate mentioned several cases of strangers in children's bedrooms in Portugal and Redwood mentioned a case (whether that was one of the cases or a different one). None of those children appear to have been abducted, but circumstances may have prevented that happening.

Those harrowing stories weren't reported by the press. Which police force would have been responsible for investigating? If it wasn't the PJ, it would have been the GNR or PSP, dealing with minor crimes. Were the cases thoroughly investigated at the time? Without a criminal investigation, would there have been any forensic sweep to attempt to identify the perpetrators? If a child had "simply" been traumatised by a stranger, would that be sufficient to bring in the PJ? Or would it have been a strange detail in the break-in category? If some of the children had suffered a sexual assault, I can't imagine that the families would launch a publicity campaign, for privacy reasons and the fact that their children - at the end of the day - weren't missing or killed. Unless the police launched a public appeal, or leaked to the press, how would the mainstream press even know about them? Did any of these cases come to trial?


- There is the case of Caroline Dickinson who was raped and murdered in her bed in a youth hostel dorm. She wasn't abducted, and what happened to the poor girl is a thankfully rare occurrence, but it nonetheless did take place. That creep took a huge risk. If she'd been younger (and lighter), who knows if he might have disposed of the body? (As it happens, I disagree that a dog's alert represents a reliable indicator that Madeleine died in that apartment, if indeed she is dead.)

Yes, there seem to be a lot of grey areas here and many crimes of this nature that go unnoticed or unrecorded.

It seems that we don't have a true measure of what really goes on.

As a matter of interest, do you know if we have more information on the strangers entering bedrooms that Kate McCann and Redwood speak of? It would be interesting to see sources. Knowing more about this kind of thing could give us a truer picture.

As for the narrow 'from bed' category, we'll have to check with Anne on this one, but I would imagine that that is really a figuritive way of saying 'from a bedroom' or 'from inside a home' .

 

Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #261 on: January 02, 2014, 03:36:06 PM »

How successful has the media onslaught approach been?

There are probably several aspects to that.

The family trying to maintain the profile of the missing child in the public eye, versus the lucrative media frenzy and lack of accountability in the press.

And possibly other families trying to deal with extraordinary situations and trying to protect anonymity.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2014, 03:43:08 PM by Carana »

Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #262 on: January 02, 2014, 06:13:51 PM »
How would they know they were investigating a kidnap for ransom until a ransom demand was made?

Who should have been making decisions in the late hours of the night? The family? The GNR? The PJ?

What do you do in the meantime in the case of a missing child? Not say anything?
« Last Edit: January 02, 2014, 06:40:49 PM by Carana »

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #263 on: January 02, 2014, 06:45:43 PM »
Who should have been making decisions in the late hours of the night? The family? The GNR? The PJ?

What do you do in the meantime in the case of a missing child? Not say anything?

Yep. let the police do the job. That's what you call them for.
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Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #264 on: January 02, 2014, 06:55:28 PM »
Yep. let the police do the job. That's what you call them for.

But the first police to contact was the GNR dealing with minor crime in a rural community... It was then up to them to assess the situation and refer it to the PJ. Not the GNR's fault, but the golden hours would have been missed.

Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #265 on: January 02, 2014, 07:02:02 PM »
I don't see how "statiscally" any opinion can be more valid than other.

What terms are we using here?

Are terms uniform in studies?

Which studies?

Which statistics?

Where?

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #266 on: January 02, 2014, 07:09:51 PM »
I don't see how "statiscally" any opinion can be more valid than other.

What terms are we using here?

Are terms uniform in studies?

Which studies?

Which statistics?

Where?

Statistics are not "opinions" they are facts

There are plenty of them done by many

You cant ride roughshod over these...or you can if you like...you work with the data available...its nothing to do with "opinions"

It is what is what...just data

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #267 on: January 02, 2014, 07:22:16 PM »
Statistics are not "opinions" they are facts

There are plenty of them done by many

You cant ride roughshod over these...or you can if you like...you work with the data available...its nothing to do with "opinions"

It is what is what...just data

 You have to understand how to apply statistics and from your posts...you dont

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #268 on: January 02, 2014, 07:26:40 PM »
But the first police to contact was the GNR dealing with minor crime in a rural community... It was then up to them to assess the situation and refer it to the PJ. Not the GNR's fault, but the golden hours would have been missed.

Capturing these 'golden hours' achieved what exactly?

Infact it could even have caused the 'abductor' to panic & kill her.
Christian Brueckner Fan Club

Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #269 on: January 02, 2014, 08:15:00 PM »
Capturing these 'golden hours' achieved what exactly?

Infact it could even have caused the 'abductor' to panic & kill her.

When? That night? Before the news bulletins hit the TV the next morning? Or when the OC missing child protocol was first put in place and everyone was out looking for her that evening?