Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 228909 times)

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Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #270 on: January 03, 2014, 09:55:55 AM »
When? That night? Before the news bulletins hit the TV the next morning? Or when the OC missing child protocol was first put in place and everyone was out looking for her that evening?

When the worlds media invaded.
Christian Brueckner Fan Club

Offline Eleanor

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #271 on: January 03, 2014, 09:59:33 AM »

So, we might all as well stop looking for abducted children, and keep it a secret.

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #272 on: January 03, 2014, 10:02:09 AM »
So, we might all as well stop looking for abducted children, and keep it a secret.

Have you looked for her then?
Christian Brueckner Fan Club

Offline carlymichelle

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #273 on: January 03, 2014, 10:05:13 AM »
Have you looked for her then?

dont think so but  according to what i have read she left  her children alone..............

Offline Eleanor

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #274 on: January 03, 2014, 10:11:04 AM »
Have you looked for her then?

In France?  Yes, I have.  Madeleine could be anywhere.  Still looking.

And Yes, I did leave my children alone in exactly the same way as The McCanns did.  However, I would not do it now.

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #275 on: January 03, 2014, 10:15:24 AM »
In France?  Yes, I have.  Madeleine could be anywhere.  Still looking.

And Yes, I did leave my children alone in exactly the same way as The McCanns did.  However, I would not do it now.

And was she there?
Christian Brueckner Fan Club

Offline pinkblossoms

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #276 on: January 03, 2014, 10:16:00 AM »
dont think so but  according to what i have read she left  her children alone..............

your parents left you alone by your own admission,Tut Tut what bad parents you have carly.

you ran away tiger. why ?
« Last Edit: January 03, 2014, 11:13:06 AM by pinkblossoms »

Offline Eleanor

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #277 on: January 03, 2014, 10:52:42 AM »
And was she there?

I don't know.  She might be.  Just keep your eyes open.

Offline jassi

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #278 on: January 03, 2014, 10:58:16 AM »
I don't know.  She might be. Just keep your eyes open.

Do we know what to look for ? Did we ever?
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Eleanor

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #279 on: January 03, 2014, 11:09:15 AM »
Do we know what to look for ? Did we ever?

There are things to be noticed apart from recognition.  Difficult, I do agree as time goes by.  But I simply do not believe that any sceptic would turn a blind eye if they tripped over something significant.

So, you see, I have much more faith in such people than they have in themselves.

Offline Eleanor

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #280 on: January 03, 2014, 11:50:13 AM »

CarlyMichelle is in a cleft stick, poor soul.  She was supposedly briefly abandoned by her parents under similar circumstances.
But I very much doubt that any of us would accuse her parents of being anything other than good.  But then she wasn't abducted.
And I very much doubt that she would accuse them either.

Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #281 on: January 03, 2014, 01:01:42 PM »
Yes, there seem to be a lot of grey areas here and many crimes of this nature that go unnoticed or unrecorded.

It seems that we don't have a true measure of what really goes on.

As a matter of interest, do you know if we have more information on the strangers entering bedrooms that Kate McCann and Redwood speak of? It would be interesting to see sources. Knowing more about this kind of thing could give us a truer picture.

As for the narrow 'from bed' category, we'll have to check with Anne on this one, but I would imagine that that is really a figuritive way of saying 'from a bedroom' or 'from inside a home' .

No, I don't know any more about these strangers in children's bedrooms.

A few thoughts for the pot...

There don't actually seem to be that many studies on child stranger abduction and even those that I had found (one US and two UK ones) all seem to use slightly different criteria (including the definition of "child" and the definition of abduction). Not all cases of missing children are reported (e.g., throwaway children), and of those in the long-term missing category, there would a grey area in terms of presumed runaways (obviously mainly teens) and those who may have been held against their will.

I had always assumed that the overwhelming majority of child abductions were parental ones. In terms of the "success" rate, that would seem more or less true according to the following study concerning England and Wales: 23% parental, versus 9% stranger (although I wouldn't consider that ratio to be an overwhelming majority). However, the situation seems more nuanced if you consider "attempted" abductions.

Even though only 9% of the total number of cases examined were "successful" stranger abductions (as opposed to 23% of "successful" parental ones), 56% of the total were stranger ones, including 47% "failed" ones. 


STRANGER ABDUCTIONS

Of all recorded abductions and attempted abductions, a very small proportion were instances where a child was actually abducted by a stranger.  Importantly, children who are abducted will not necessarily be considered missing, or reported as missing.

A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year:

56 per cent or all reports involved a stranger
47 per cent of all reports were ‘attempted child abductions by a stranger’
9 per cent of all reports were successful child abductions by a stranger (n=68 )


PARENTAL ABDUCTIONS

A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year, 23 per cent involved abduction by a parent.  Not all of these children will be the subject of a missing person report.

http://www.missingpeople.org.uk/media-centre/papers/detail.asp?dsid=603



Offline Carana

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #282 on: January 03, 2014, 01:12:57 PM »
In the US, the definition of a stereotypical abduction is:

These “stereotypical” kidnappings involved someone the child did not know or was an acquaintance. The child was held overnight, transported 50 miles or more, killed, ransomed or held with the intent to keep the child permanently.

http://www.missingkids.com/KeyFacts

According to that US definition, the poor child taken out of her bath in the UK, sexually assaulted and dumped naked in the middle of winter a few hours later by some freak unknown to the family wouldn't count, not because he was a relative or close friend of the family, but because he hadn't necessarily driven 50 miles and hadn't held her overnight.

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #283 on: January 03, 2014, 09:48:22 PM »
No, I don't know any more about these strangers in children's bedrooms.

A few thoughts for the pot...

There don't actually seem to be that many studies on child stranger abduction and even those that I had found (one US and two UK ones) all seem to use slightly different criteria (including the definition of "child" and the definition of abduction). Not all cases of missing children are reported (e.g., throwaway children), and of those in the long-term missing category, there would a grey area in terms of presumed runaways (obviously mainly teens) and those who may have been held against their will.

I had always assumed that the overwhelming majority of child abductions were parental ones. In terms of the "success" rate, that would seem more or less true according to the following study concerning England and Wales: 23% parental, versus 9% stranger (although I wouldn't consider that ratio to be an overwhelming majority). However, the situation seems more nuanced if you consider "attempted" abductions.

Even though only 9% of the total number of cases examined were "successful" stranger abductions (as opposed to 23% of "successful" parental ones), 56% of the total were stranger ones, including 47% "failed" ones. 


STRANGER ABDUCTIONS

Of all recorded abductions and attempted abductions, a very small proportion were instances where a child was actually abducted by a stranger.  Importantly, children who are abducted will not necessarily be considered missing, or reported as missing.

A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year:

56 per cent or all reports involved a stranger
47 per cent of all reports were ‘attempted child abductions by a stranger’
9 per cent of all reports were successful child abductions by a stranger (n=68 )


PARENTAL ABDUCTIONS

A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year, 23 per cent involved abduction by a parent.  Not all of these children will be the subject of a missing person report.

http://www.missingpeople.org.uk/media-centre/papers/detail.asp?dsid=603

Bad example


data only took into account confirmed successfull parental abductions not attempted ones..hence figures flawed and obviously puts " parental abductions" on a much lower rating.....thus 23 per cent to 9 could be dramatically changed

the world KNOWS that harm to kids comes in the vast majority comes from family and or friends of thr family......all statistics prove this....
« Last Edit: January 03, 2014, 10:46:25 PM by Redblossom »

Estuarine

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #284 on: January 05, 2014, 04:59:01 PM »
I wondered what posters views on this was...it may reveal why they have come to the conclusion they have.

If you trawl around you will find the incidence of abduction by strangers in the United States. It is remarkably low and remains more or less at the same level.