Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Redblossom]

We are debating whether it is reasonable to suspect the parents on the basis of statistics.

It isn't.

Rarely are on that basis alone...other factors come into play very quicky

[ferryman]

It is reasonable to treat them as persons of interest.

It was.

Other than strictly as victims who have lost a lost a loved and treasured daughter, not now.

[slartibartfast]

No , I missed a 'not- out of sentence  - I meant  no credible evidence

That was how I read it.

As we are talking probabilities, we would have to take into account the probabilities of the weaker evidence to adjust the odds.

[icabodcrane]

I understand your hair splitting. After the event, evidence will skew the probabilities.  Things such as the Window and associated forensic evidence, sightings and the dogs would adjust the odds.

Quite correct Slartibartfast

The precis of this thread ignores the basic rule of statistics  ...   Stastical prediction is broad brush and ignores specifics

In this case  'the specifics'  include those you mention  ...  the window and shutters opened from the  inside  to no apparent purpose,  and a cadaver dog alerting in the apartment where the missing child was last seen

[John]

This has probably been asked before but does anyone know of a case where a toddler has been abducted and recovered alive after several years?

[Mr Gray]

Quite correct Slartibartfast

The precis of this thread ignores the basic rule of statistics  ...   Stastical prediction is broad brush and ignores specifics

In this case  'the specifics'  include those you mention  ...  the window and shutters opened from the  inside  to no apparent purpose,  and a cadaver dog alerting in the apartment where the missing child was last seen

 wrong again...the title of the thread asks a question..it ignores nothing...all the specifics play a part in deciding what the chances are that Maddie WAS abducted...

 

[Mr Gray]

Don't worry about it sunshine. I'm only here for the craic.

so am I...do many people use that word in the US..craic

[Mr Gray]

It is reasonable to treat them as persons of interest.

of course

[Estuarine]

so am I...do many people use that word in the US..craic

I don't know I am not in the US

[Mr Gray]

Put simply..if the parents are not involved then its highly probable there was a stranger abduction

[jassi]

You can that round, of course. If there was no evidence of stranger abduction  then it would be highly probable that the parents or friends were involved.

[Redblossom]

This has probably been asked before but does anyone know of a case where a toddler has been abducted and recovered alive after several years?

Nope...there are cases of teenagers abducted  for sexual motivations who turned up alive years later but no toddler....which makes me wonder why the mccanns touted all these cases as a hope?..perhaps a new thread?

Neither have i heard of any person/couple abducting a four yr old to cherish and love because they were childless

If paedophiles took her, she is certainly dead

[Lyall]

Put simply..if the parents are not involved then its highly probable there was a stranger abduction

I'd rephrase that: "If the parents are completely honest with the police then..."

and you have absolutely no way of knowing if they were or they weren't.

[Mr Gray]

You can that round, of course. If there was no evidence of stranger then it would be highly probable that the parents or friends were involved.

I don't think so...no evidence of  a stranger doesn't mean absence of a stranger...as far as I am aware the pj didnt do a proper dna sweep of the bedclothes...there may well have been evidence

[Mr Gray]

I'd rephrase that: "If the parents are completely honest with the police then..."

and you have absolutely no way of knowing if they were or they weren't.

 We have no way of knowing for certain...but we have no way of knowing for certain she wasn't snatched by the CIA...We have to look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us.