Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[jassi]

I don't think so...no evidence of  a stranger doesn't mean absence of a stranger...as far as I am aware the pj didnt do a proper dna sweep of the bedclothes...there may well have been evidence

There may, but as none was detected, it is wrong to assume that it was present.

[Mr Gray]

There may, but as none was detected, it is wrong to assume that it was present.

 im not assuming it was present but if a proper analysis wasn't carried out then its not surprising no evidence was found...if you don't look ...you aint gonna find

[Lyall]

We have no way of knowing for certain...but we have no way of knowing for certain she wasn't snatched by the CIA...We have to look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us.

Well it doesn't tell us anything definitely. The AG told us that in 2008.

Do you mean look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us... and then guess?

[Estuarine]

This has probably been asked before but does anyone know of a case where a toddler has been abducted and recovered alive after several years?

Don't know of any but about 40% to 50% are killed.

[Mr Gray]

Well it doesn't tell us anything definitely. The AG told us that in 2008.

Do you mean look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us... and then guess?

guess.,..or WAG...As opposed to a SWAG...I prefer to call it an estimate

[stephen25000]

The figures wrong...it assumes all the balls are of equal weight...that's complex stats

Not quite right davel.

I've heard that on before,about bodies of different mass. Insignificant in case of the National Lottery.

Having seen several statistical analyses  including several of my students course works, the ball number frequencies follow a discrete uniform distribution, that is also backed up by significance testing as well.

[Mr Gray]

Not quite right davel.

I've heard that on before,about bodies of different mass. Insignificant in case of the National Lottery.

Having seen several statistical analyses  including several of my students course works, the ball number frequencies follow a discrete uniform distribution, that is also backed up by significance testing as well.

you wouldn't be able to carry out enough draws to test this to any statistical significance...we are now off topic but by all means you can have the last word

[Mr Gray]

Here's a nice statistic. In a recent online poll 42% of people surveyed thought the McCanns had something to do with their daughters disappearance.

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1275.0

 Statistical models need to be very carefully constructed to have any real significance..ask Stephen

[Redblossom]

Here's a nice statistic. In a recent online poll 42% of people surveyed thought the McCanns had something to do with their daughters disappearance.

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1275.0

I reckon half the country thnks the same..or similar....or at least is wised up to the fact it is is no ordinary slam dunk child  abduction case....not by any means at all
...i would also say the vast majority of the public are seriously bored withthe story...at best.....annoyed otherwise its stuck in ther faces all the time.....as if they should care after all this time in general but in paticular when the parents didnt care at the time...leaving their three babies all alone....in danger, in an apartment open to the street and t o every tom dick  and harry, and being out of ear and eyeshot.....yes, they made the conscious decision to do this...

Ie its their problem.....even when thy have tried to blame half the world and its wife......

Edited for afterthoughts....


 

[Mr Gray]

I reckon half the country thnks the same..or similar....or at least is wised up to the fact it is is no ordinary slam dunk child  abduction case....not by any means at all
...i would also say the vast majority of the public are seriously bored withthe story...at best.....annoyed otherwise its stuck in ther faces all the time.....as if they should care after all this time in general but in paticular when the parents didnt care at the time...leaving their three babies all alone....

Well half the country are of below average intelligence

[Mr Gray]

I suspect that response is most likely because this particular statistic did not agree with your own belief.

no

[stephen25000]

you wouldn't be able to carry out enough draws to test this to any statistical significance...we are now off topic but by all means you can have the last word

Not correct,there exists  a sufficient number of trials already to validate a hypothesis.

Now davel, on what basis do you base your prediction of an abduction ?

[Mr Gray]

Not correct,there exists  a sufficient number of trials already to validate a hypothesis.

Now davel, on what basis do you base your prediction of an abduction ?

 Well lets look at the possibilities...please add to them if you wish..

Abduction
left appt and was abducted..accident
accidental death followed by cover up by parents and friends

 I think those are the only reasonable ones..what do you think

[stephen25000]

Well lets look at the possibilities...please add to them if you wish..

Abduction
left appt and was abducted..accident
accidental death followed by cover up by parents and friends

 I think those are the only reasonable ones..what do you think

Not the question I asked.

On what basis can you quantitatively state an abduction took place ?

[Redblossom]

Not the question I asked.

On what basis can you quantitatively state an abduction took place ?

There is zero, sorry to but in....