Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

      .
41.9   

Just try that calculation one more time..there was always something fundamentally wrong with your maths
 

[slartibartfast]

 

I think we would have to build a computer the size of the earth

 

[stephen25000]

Just try that calculation one more time..there was always something fundamentally wrong with your maths
 

No davel, you clearly don't know the proof there, do you ?   

I'll give you a clue, try a bit of simple algebra.

[Mr Gray]

Actually accidental death by parents with friends innocent or vice versa could also be a possibility. As well as the same scenario with deliberate death, however remote each option may or may not be.

Yes all possibilities should be considered

[Mr Gray]

No davel, you clearly don't know the proof there, do you ?   

I'll give you a clue, try a bit of simple algebra.

 I did simple algebra such along time ago

[Mr Gray]

      .
41.9   

 I thought the decimal place wasn't significant so it was rounded off to 42

[Estuarine]

Yes, but unfortunately not enough to act as proof of anything. Statements should have been more rigorously tested from the beginning.

I think my last post went missing!
Hereby lies the rub; there was insufficient evidence to obtain a prosecution so the case was archived. Working on the balance of probability we all have our own ideas the Portuguese police included. After nearly 7years no credible evidence of the little girls fate. If we believe the stories, PDL in May 2007 must have been busting at the seams with paedophiles and ne'er do wells of varying makes and shapes. A bit like the Hydra really; def out Tannerman and 10 more pop up who oddly were below the radar at the time. I have this mate with several bridges to sell to anyone who falls for that.

[VIXTE]

I think my last post went missing!
Hereby lies the rub; there was insufficient evidence to obtain a prosecution so the case was archived. Working on the balance of probability we all have our own ideas the Portuguese police included. After nearly 7years no credible evidence of the little girls fate. If we believe the stories, PDL in May 2007 must have been busting at the seams with paedophiles and ne'er do wells of varying makes and shapes. A bit like the Hydra really; def out Tannerman and 10 more pop up who oddly were below the radar at the time. I have this mate with several bridges to sell to anyone who falls for that.

Not sure what you are on about.. but there is a list of UK  registered peados who were in PDL at the time.. Portugal at the time did not have such list.. but there were also people from other countries lists, for the countries that have a Register.  The unregistered we are not counting ;)

[Sherlock Holmes]

Don't know of any but about 40% to 50% are killed.

Just as a matter of interest , Estuarine, where did you get those figures from?

And what about the 50 - 60% who are not killed  - what happens to them? Are  how do we know they are not killed?

Sorry if these are silly questions.. it's getting a bit late over here!

[Cariad]

Cariad,

When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.

Also look at the Mccanns.  What a happy family they were.  Madeleine so happy.  She is deeply loved, no doubt about it.  Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love.  They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her.  A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.

And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child.  And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.

 So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ?  Just so that we can take you seriously, like.

Sadie

I have no idea what happened to Madeleine. I have never claimed to know. I have never claimed that the Mccanns 'dunit'.

As for credible scenarios, having seen your idea of credible I'm going to propose that it was Elvis what 'dunit' and they are now living in an alternate universe populated by purple unicorns.

At least it's a happy ending.

Catching up now... Just needed to reply to this post first as it annoyed me so much.

[colombosstogey]

Sadie

I have no idea what happened to Madeleine. I have never claimed to know. I have never claimed that the Mccanns 'dunit'.

As for credible scenarios, having seen your idea of credible I'm going to propose that it was Elvis what 'dunit' and they are now living in an alternate universe populated by purple unicorns.

At least it's a happy ending.

Catching up now... Just needed to reply to this post first as it annoyed me so much.

It annoyed me too, i thought it was totally un called for as your one of the most balanced posters on here.

[Estuarine]

Not sure what you are on about.. but there is a list of UK  registered peados who were in PDL at the time.. Portugal at the time did not have such list.. but there were also people from other countries lists, for the countries that have a Register.  The unregistered we are not counting ;)

Yeah sorry I can sometimes be too cryptic. The "Jane Tanner" sighting was the keystone of the abduction theory although the Portuguese police didn't give it credence the UK did. That remained the case until Mr Redwood blew it out of the water. So the abduction theory started to look flakey. The key element (the JT sighting) effectively being demolished. For the abduction theory to now stand up we need another "perp". So (according to the press) loads more "possibles" are suddenly produced. Possibles that went unnoticed for 6+ years. Although the case was shelved the Portuguese police maintain they continued to receive information. For the abduction theory to stand up we now need to believe in a succession of unlikely events. The first one being that PDL was heaving with people just waiting to snatch a child. I don't profess to know the answer but I know when I am being offered a sucker bet.

[Estuarine]

It annoyed me too, i thought it was totally un called for as your one of the most balanced posters on here.

I'll have a bit of that too. There are those on here who should realise that because they disagree with some one doesn't make that person wrong!

[Mr Gray]

It annoyed me too, i thought it was totally un called for as your one of the most balanced posters on here.

 I'm with Sadie on this...many posters want to rubbish other posters ideas but don't come up with any credible scenarios themselves.

[stephen25000]

I'm with Sadie on this...many posters want to rubbish other posters ideas but don't come up with any credible scenarios themselves.

Credible ?

i.e. credible, if it doesn't lay the blame of Madeleine's disappearance where it belongs.

Pray tell why is sadie's theory any more credible than Birch, and you know what I think about him ?

The irony being, I know someone who believes Birch's theories.