Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Victoria]

I am neutral in the whole debate but tend to agree:
Why must the so called "Tapas 7" be anything other than what they appear to be at face value? In my book that is a typical group of slightly naive British tourists suddenly out of their depth in a foreign country where they were familiar with neither the language nor the culture.Prepared to do and say just about anything to cover their own backs in order to get home and never go back.
Furthermore I have never met 7 people in my life who I would trust enough to help me cover up anything.
(Before I get reams of abuse for "naive" anyone who has travelled abroad regularly other than on holiday and to holiday resorts will know what I mean any one who hasn't will not)

It's the fact that there were seven other people there that night (and not close family but merely holiday chums) that convinces me nothing about Kate and Gerry's behaviour was out of the ordinary. If the McCanns had spent the holiday alone and their daughter disappeared during the night, for example, then perhaps I would have been more suspicious.

[Redblossom]

Thanks for the link Red.   Just another conspiracy theory in the making then?  Pathetic IMO.

People  link dots ...the dots exist.....its a question of does 2 and 2 make four or five......personal opinions thats all....no one can say what the answer is or isnt as its only speculation

[colombosstogey]

I am beginning to think she did wander out and get herself into some sort of grief.

All other scenarios just seem so hard to work out.

It could be possible, she might have been really angry with her parents and decided to go off and hide to teach them a lesson. Kids of 4 are quite capable of thinking and doing things like that, especially if she woke up on her own again.

Little kids can hide in such small places.

My husband last year found a child walking down the middle of the road (lucky enough this was a residential road with sleeping policemen)with just nappy and pj top on, he was about 2 years old. This was about 9.30 on a Sunday morning. He stopped his van wasnt sure what to do, when he saw a women coming haring up the road shouting. It turned out the child had got through the dog flap. Had woken up and just decided to go off and explore.

The saddest thing really though was my husbands first thought was crikey if I pick the child up.......sad isnt it....

BUT children do wonder off, my own daughter did the same years ago, nearly gave me a heart attack.

I dont know the more i read the more i get confused lol....

[Benice]

It's the fact that there were seven other people there that night (and not close family but merely holiday chums) that convinces me nothing about Kate and Gerry's behaviour was out of the ordinary. If the McCanns had spent the holiday alone and their daughter disappeared during the night, for example, then perhaps I would have been more suspicious.

I agree.   And would those 7 other people, if they were accomplices to such a heinous crime, just sit back and allow Kate and Gerry to keep pushing for the case to be re-investigated.    They would be absolutely terrified by such a dangerous course of action if they were involved - and would be constantly fearful of a knock at the door as the investigation progressed.

Who would agree to live their lives in such a permanent state of anxiety - when they had the choice to breathe a sigh of relief that they had got away with it - and also the choice to allow it to fade away into obscurity by taking no further action.

It's a no brainer as far as I'm concerned.

   





 

[Wonderfulspam]

Quote from: Benice on Today at 12:51:58 AM

I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.      Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.     

That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   

This is one of my problems as well, Benice. No credible explanations whatsoever.

I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body

In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.


and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. 

They didn't.


Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,


They didn't.


came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.   

Neither complicated nor inbecillic.

 
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   


There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.


So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis?
Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace.
Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.

[Redblossom]

Quote from: Benice on Today at 12:51:58 AM

I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.      Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.     

That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   


I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body

In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.


and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. 

They didn't.


Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,


They didn't.


came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.   

Neither complicated nor inbecillic.

 
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   


There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.


So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis?
Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace.
Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.

Occams razor comes to mind here though I find it hard to imagine one of the parents doing that.....unless they had no choice

[Wonderfulspam]

Occams razor comes to mind here though I find it hard to imagine one of the parents doing that.....unless they had no choice

Time was running out, it would have been easy to do physically, a bit harder emotionaly but not impossible. even less so if you are familiar with matters of the living & the dead.

[south of the river]

Time was running out, it would have been easy to do physically, a bit harder emotionaly but not impossible. even less so if you are familiar with matters of the living & the dead.

but what about the alerting in the hire car - isn't the dogs giving cadaver alerts the main crux of the evidence against the parents- - unless we discount the hire car one

also weren't all the bins sealed and checked - sorry I don't have a link to that - I just read it somewhere.

It would certainly be one of the first places I would imagine any searcher who suspected foul play and disposal would check

but it is a theory at least 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Quote from: Benice on Today at 12:51:58 AM

I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.      Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.     

That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   


I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body

In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.


and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. 

They didn't.


Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,


They didn't.


came up with such a complicated,  imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.   

Neither complicated nor inbecillic.

 
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends.    Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst  them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'.    Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.   


There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.


So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis?
Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace.
Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.

I'm not sure I agree with everything you're proposing here, wonderfulspam - but you have at least posited an explanation. A rarity.

[jassi]

if the PJ or SY do have any evidence to back up their involvement then I wish they would get round to it. I would be more than happy to change my views if presented with such scenarios

As such I have yet to see anything that persuades me of How, why, when , where  and who etc nada

I appreciate you have presented the she was dumped in a bin theory - it could be true - but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how  and when and of course who

so until then I still lean towards my gut feel that they are innocent in her disposal - and after 6 nearly 7 years I cant see a smoking gun suddenly appearing

They are not going to say anything along those line unless they have conclusive evidence to back their statements up.

Irrespective of what they say publicly, we have absolutely no idea where the investigations are taking them - and quite properly so.

[Wonderfulspam]

if the PJ or SY do have any evidence to back up their involvement then I wish they would get round to it. I would be more than happy to change my views if presented with such scenarios

As such I have yet to see anything that persuades me of How, why, when , where  and who etc nada

I appreciate you have presented the she was dumped in a bin theory - it could be true - but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how  and when and of course who

so until then I still lean towards my gut feel that they are innocent in her disposal - and after 6 nearly 7 years I cant see a smoking gun suddenly appearing

but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how  and when and of course who


Why?

She was dead.

How?

Carrying her to a bin and chucking her in it.

When?

Around 10pm  3rd May 2007.

Who?

Smithman.

[Mr Gray]

but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how  and when and of course who


Why?

She was dead.

How?

Carrying her to a bin and chucking her in it.

When?

Around 10pm  3rd May 2007.

Who?

Smithman.

How and when did she die...so she was never in the hire car...

[Wonderfulspam]

Accidents happen...fatal accidents are rare...why the cover up ...fake abduction...why stay in Portugal...why start a fund...why employ detectives...why work to get the fund reopened...non of it makes sense

maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd

why the cover up

Panic initially, maybe not wanting their own parents and family to know they fu**ed up.

fake abduction...

People believe it.

why stay in Portugal

Keeping up appearance.

why start a fund

Because people were keen to donate money.

why employ detectives

Divertion & keeping up appearance.

...why work to get the fund reopened

?

maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd

Who?

[Mr Gray]

why the cover up

Panic initially, maybe not wanting their own parents and family to know they fu**ed up.

fake abduction...

People believe it.

why stay in Portugal

Keeping up appearance.

why start a fund

Because people were keen to donate money.

why employ detectives

Divertion & keeping up appearance.

...why work to get the fund reopened

?

maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd

Who?

maddie was seen by several people on may 3rd...its been discussed at length...your theory makes a lot of suppositions...has no evidence to support it and is just a timeline made to fit...people could make up others but you would have to suspend reality to believe all these things..from an accidental death...which would get lots of sympathy to multimilluion pound fraudsters...10 years...so the theory makes no sense to me

[Wonderfulspam]

maddie was seen by several people on may 3rd...its been discussed at length...your theory makes a lot of suppositions...has no evidence to support it and is just a timeline made to fit...people could make up others but you would have to suspend reality to believe all these things..from an accidental death...which would get lots of sympathy to multimilluion pound fraudsters...10 years...so the theory makes no sense to me

your theory makes a lot of suppositions...

And the abduction theory does not?

has no evidence to support it

And the abduction theory has?