Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 228815 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #570 on: January 27, 2014, 03:15:25 PM »
We are discussing statisical likelihood 

A child was reported missing by her parents,  and never seen alive again

If statistics suggest that parental involvement in the disappearance is more likely than abduction then we must accept that

That does not mean that Madeleine is not likely to have been abducted  ...  just that statistically the likelihood is not high

The statistics don't suggest that
« Last Edit: January 27, 2014, 03:16:56 PM by davel »

Estuarine

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #571 on: January 27, 2014, 03:21:19 PM »
The statistics don't suggest that

So you keep saying. So putting your money where your mouth is let's see your calculation to support you claim?

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #572 on: January 27, 2014, 03:26:30 PM »
So you keep saying. So putting your money where your mouth is let's see your calculation to support you claim?

I've answered this question many times. if you look at children harmed by family members you will see that they are dysfunctional families....with many other issues. Whats more  several other people would have to be complicit in the act. To quote general statistics is plain wrong

icabodcrane

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #573 on: January 27, 2014, 03:36:07 PM »
The statistics don't suggest that

I've only skimmed through this thread and must have missed the statisical study you referenced that suggests children who are reported missing by parents are most likely to have been  'abducted'

Can you point me to it please  ? 

Estuarine

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #574 on: January 27, 2014, 03:45:42 PM »
I've answered this question many times. if you look at children harmed by family members you will see that they are dysfunctional families....with many other issues. Whats more  several other people would have to be complicit in the act. To quote general statistics is plain wrong

Yeah thought you wouldn't be able to

AnneGuedes

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #575 on: January 27, 2014, 03:51:39 PM »

We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.

Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
Instead of talking endlessly about how rare but not impossible is an abduction from bed by strangers absolutely without precedent in Europe, after almost 7 years of running behind an abductor in unprecedented multiple ways, why not starting to be rational ?

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #576 on: January 27, 2014, 03:55:04 PM »
Yeah thought you wouldn't be able to

 where are icad's satistics...or perhaps you are the sort of person who sees the general statistics and thinks that children should be taken from their parents and given to strangers because they are more likely to be harmed by their parents...yes that's probably the way you think

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #577 on: January 27, 2014, 04:31:54 PM »
where are icad's satistics...or perhaps you are the sort of person who sees the general statistics and thinks that children should be taken from their parents and given to strangers because they are more likely to be harmed by their parents...yes that's probably the way you think

Well, Kate helpfully supplies statistics in the back of her book Madeleine. On page 378: 'The majority of completed child abductions are parental/family abductions, with 16 per cent involving abduction by a stranger.

So, according to the statistics supplied by Kate (source of the statistics is on Page 378 for those interested) three is a 16% chance that Madeleine's abduction was at the hands of total strangers and an 86% chance that her abduction was carried out by her parents or family.

Given those statistics, you would think that the McCanns would want to co-operate fully with any police enquiry in order to rule themselves out. That would obviously mean answering all police questions; taking part in re-enactments if necessary; taking a lie detector test and so on.

It would presumably not involve hiring libel lawyers, dodgy detectives, extradition lawyers, media spin doctors and reputation managers. Not to mention suing the detective who was in charge of the case. Or, within a very short space of time, setting up a private company to raise money.

One would also imagine that parents whose child had disappeared and who had no prior knowledge of what had happened would try to keep a relatively open mind. That would mean exploring a number of possibilities as to what might have happened including Madeleine wandering off. It would not involve jumping to an immediate conclusion about what had happened.

Every aspect of their behaviour and most of what they have said implies they know what happened to Madeleine, in my opinion.

Their actio


Offline slartibartfast

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #578 on: January 27, 2014, 04:35:00 PM »
This is my view too, Carana.

We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.

Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.

If you mean abduction in terms of removal from the apartment, then I agree. She is definitely not in the apartment.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #579 on: January 27, 2014, 04:35:59 PM »
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.

That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #580 on: January 27, 2014, 04:49:48 PM »
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.

That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.

im just getting the hang of the way posters on here interpret the statistics...so basically Maddie was safer on her OWN....rather than with her family

icabodcrane

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #581 on: January 27, 2014, 04:54:01 PM »
im just getting the hang of the way posters on here interpret the statistics...so basically Maddie was safer on her OWN....rather than with her family

j rob  has just  won this debate davel



Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #582 on: January 27, 2014, 05:00:11 PM »
j rob  has just  won this debate davel

What a ridiculous statement from someone who is totally biased...just think about it..

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #583 on: January 27, 2014, 05:04:52 PM »
Instead of talking endlessly about how rare but not impossible is an abduction from bed by strangers absolutely without precedent in Europe, after almost 7 years of running behind an abductor in unprecedented multiple ways, why not starting to be rational ?

Try listening to some sense...a little girl was abducted from her bath while her mother was in the house...that had never happened before...but it happenned

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #584 on: January 27, 2014, 05:07:42 PM »
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.

That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.

 Absolutely not...you understand how to read the statistics but you don't understand how to apply them..thats probably why you have got things so wrong