Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 236884 times)

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Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #690 on: January 28, 2014, 05:33:54 PM »
Kate was concerned about the unlocked patio door at the tapas bar that night even though she sat with her back to the apartment and couldn't see it - very strange! If Gerry used the front door key it's because it's the the only way he could enter from the northside. That would mean he was doing something on the northside of the apartments on that first check at 9pm. When Jez saw him he had just came out of the southside/side gate so he entered via northside and exited southside before meeting Jez IMO. Therefore in that case the patio door would be open when Matt went to do the check - this was supposed to be Kate's check and it wasn't long after Gerry returned. Only 10 minutes later. Kate would've entered via unlocked patio door as she talked about at the table but Matt threw a spanner in the works when he said he'd check for her.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2014, 05:40:16 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #691 on: January 28, 2014, 05:40:11 PM »
Kate was concerned about the unlocked patio door at the tapas bar that night even though she sat with her back to the apartment and couldn't see it - very strange! If Gerry used the front door key it's because it's the the only way he could enter from the northside. That would mean he was doing something on the northside of the apartments on that first check at 9pm. When Jez saw him he had just came out of the southside/side gate so he entered via northside and exited southside before meeting Jez IMO. Therefore in that case the patio door would be open when Matt went to do the check - this was supposed to be Kate's check and it wasn't long after Gerry returned. Only 10 minutes later.

thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time



Offline jassi

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #692 on: January 28, 2014, 05:48:48 PM »
thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time

Alternatively, they could probably have  arranged 'dinner to go' and had it on one of the adjoining patios - much more like eating in your own garden.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #693 on: January 28, 2014, 05:52:28 PM »
thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time




Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline jassi

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #694 on: January 28, 2014, 05:54:23 PM »
Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.

Which one - 9 o'clock, or 9.30 ?
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #695 on: January 28, 2014, 05:57:33 PM »
Alternatively, they could probably have  arranged 'dinner to go' and had it on one of the adjoining patios - much more like eating in your own garden.

probably the wisest choice being near enough to hear any kids crying....problem sorted
« Last Edit: January 28, 2014, 05:59:37 PM by Redblossom »

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #696 on: January 28, 2014, 06:00:24 PM »
Which one - 9 o'clock, or 9.30 ?

Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance. Smithman moved her out before that check.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2014, 06:02:46 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #697 on: January 28, 2014, 06:01:59 PM »
Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.

No it doesnt....thats the whole problem, hopefully SY wil get their teeth straight into the jugular soon

Cariad

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #698 on: January 28, 2014, 06:03:11 PM »
Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.

I'm not convinced he even entered 5A, personally. I think that it's more likely that the regular checks were fabricated to make them all look less negligent.


Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #699 on: January 28, 2014, 06:06:08 PM »
Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance. Smithman moved her out before that.

the only part i dont get about  Oldfields check (well apart from describing a non existent bookcase that he looked through lol) is he wondered where Madeleine slept...so he didnt stick his head inside the kids bedroom but went looking  in the parents bedroom for her!! Why would he do that if he didnt want to make sure she was there? And he didnt make the effort to be sure she was in the kids bedroom..


 >@@(*&)

So yes, dont add up, therefore nonsense

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #700 on: January 28, 2014, 06:10:58 PM »
I'm not convinced he even entered 5A, personally. I think that it's more likely that the regular checks were fabricated to make them all look less negligent.



I think the patio door was open for the 9.25/30 check or how was Kate gonna get in?  She was supposed to go not Matt. One thing is clear - she didn't wait 30 minutes for the next check knowing that the patio door was still unlocked. She is gone earlier than 10pm - even up to 10 minutes earlier which makes sense.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2014, 06:22:38 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #701 on: January 28, 2014, 06:17:59 PM »
the only part i dont get about  Oldfields check (well apart from describing a non existent bookcase that he looked through lol) is he wondered where Madeleine slept...so he didnt stick his head inside the kids bedroom but went looking  in the parents bedroom for her!! Why would he do that if he didnt want to make sure she was there? And he didnt make the effort to be sure she was in the kids bedroom..


 >@@(*&)

So yes, dont add up, therefore nonsense

Not sure but as soon as he saw the cots he would know which was the kids room and probably didn't want to enter in case he woke them up.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline jassi

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #702 on: January 28, 2014, 06:19:03 PM »
I think the patio door was open for the 9.25/30 check or how was Kate gonna get in?  She was supposed to go not Matt.

It doesn't have to be as she would have had a key. If he went at all, Matt might have only been expected to listen at the bedroom window.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #703 on: January 28, 2014, 06:23:51 PM »
It doesn't have to be as she would have had a key. If he went at all, Matt might have only been expected to listen at the bedroom window.

That door had to be unlocked when Madeleine was found to be missing.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #704 on: January 28, 2014, 06:24:43 PM »
Not sure but as soon as he saw the cots he would know which was the kids room and probably didn't want to enter in case he woke them up.

Sorry that doesnt make sense....if he wanted to sight madeleine why not poke hs nose in instead of looking in other rooms?