Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 236819 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #915 on: January 31, 2014, 10:14:32 AM »
A very simple and effective plan. We could do the same thing Smithman accomplished in a reconstruction. Madeleine is moved out when everyone is at the table. So how do they know she has left? They don't, they can't see nothing - they only presume she's in the apartment. After the alarm is raised she is moved a second time unsuspected by the others who are preoccupied with trying to find her but Smithman is the only one who knows where she really is. SY/PJ will discover that this is what happened to Madeleine and how Smithman fooled everyone.

so at what time did she have the accident..what time was she discovered...when was she moved and by whom...I think you are going to find this very difficult

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #916 on: January 31, 2014, 10:15:43 AM »
Merely your opinion, of course. I don't intend to play your games.

the truth is that you cant come up with a reasonable scenario

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #917 on: January 31, 2014, 10:22:50 AM »
so at what time did she have the accident..what time was she discovered...when was she moved and by whom...I think you are going to find this very difficult

That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene and to somewhere safe where she was less likely to be found and this is what happened.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2014, 10:34:25 AM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #918 on: January 31, 2014, 10:35:42 AM »
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene.

so the accident happened before they left for the tapas bar...so no neglect so no need to cover up the accident...

Offline Wonderfulspam

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #919 on: January 31, 2014, 10:37:03 AM »
so the accident happened before they left for the tapas bar...so no neglect so no need to cover up the accident...

So it was murder then.
Christian Brueckner Fan Club

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #920 on: January 31, 2014, 10:39:31 AM »
so the accident happened before they left for the tapas bar...so no neglect so no need to cover up the accident...

If it was an accident there's incriminating factors involved or there would be no cover up. Madeleine hasn't been seen again so Smithman didn't want her to be found.

"After the 5pm dinner, they bathed the children, prepared them for the night and let them play for a while at a playground next to the tennis courts, still and always under parental supervision. At around 8pm, the children were put to bed until the following morning, when the described routine started all over again." (KM 4 May Statement)

This routine changed for the first time on 3 May.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2014, 12:58:39 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #921 on: January 31, 2014, 01:14:41 PM »
A post displaying almost total ignorance

I suggest you familiarize yourself with statistics on accident in the home involving young children. Unfortunately they are not at all uncommon. And obviously if children are left unattended, the consequences can be dire.

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #922 on: January 31, 2014, 01:17:26 PM »
You mean the twins would have been easily disturbed?

Children don't necessarily make a lot of noise if they are choking on something. It happened a few times with mine and on the contrary, it was not noisy.

In any case, the twins may have been disturbed. Seeing as there was no adult in the apartment, how would we know? They may have been crying that night but it is my belief they had been medicated that night.

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #923 on: January 31, 2014, 01:30:16 PM »
A very simple and effective plan. We could do the same thing Smithman accomplished in a reconstruction. Madeleine is moved out when everyone is at the table. So how do they know she has left? They don't, they can't see nothing - they only presume she's in the apartment. After the alarm is raised she is moved a second time unsuspected by the others who are preoccupied with trying to find her but Smithman is the only one who knows where she really is. SY/PJ will discover that this is what happened to Madeleine and how Smithman fooled everyone.

I suppose it is possible that there was an attempt to move Madeleine at around 9.15pm, which is when some of the eye-witnesses report hearing a commotion. This might have been thwarted, or the plan changed for whatever reason - Jeremy walking around for instance.

Jane Tanner was conveniently in her apartment or out an about at several key times that evening - 9.15pm (is) when she claims she saw Gerry talking to Jeremy and again at 10pm when she said she was in her apartment and heard a commotion. Jane claims she saw Jeremy but as far as I am aware in his witness statement he says he did not see her when he was talking to Gerry.

If there had been an earlier attempt to move Madeleine at 9.15pm (ish) which had been thwarted or changed, for whatever reason (and Jane Tanner seems to have been all eyes around the resort that evening - here, there and everywhere!) then that would account for the timeline in Kate's book being different. The Matt 'check' was added and then Kate's final 'check' was given to coincide with a later 'abduction' time.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #924 on: January 31, 2014, 01:31:44 PM »
Children don't necessarily make a lot of noise if they are choking on something. It happened a few times with mine and on the contrary, it was not noisy.

In any case, the twins may have been disturbed. Seeing as there was no adult in the apartment, how would we know? They may have been crying that night but it is my belief they had been medicated that night.

Im not talking about choking...Im talking about choking to death..no way a fatal accident and cover up between 8.30 and 10...both kate and gerry were seen constantly around this 90 mins..

Offline j.rob

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #925 on: January 31, 2014, 01:38:10 PM »
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene and to somewhere safe where she was less likely to be found and this is what happened.

Yes, I believe this too. All the hype and commotion that evening. All those 'checks', all that time-line stuff. I think around 9.15pm and around 10pm were key timings for that evening. Jeremy and Smithman are two vital witnesses. As are staff at the restaurant.

Redblossom

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Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #926 on: January 31, 2014, 01:45:51 PM »
Yes, I believe this too. All the hype and commotion that evening. All those 'checks', all that time-line stuff. I think around 9.15pm and around 10pm were key timings for that evening. Jeremy and Smithman are two vital witnesses. As are staff at the restaurant.
As are the MAJOR indisputable discrepancies and other changes between the first and second statements of GM and others in the group and their joint statement of 10 May
« Last Edit: January 31, 2014, 02:09:48 PM by Redblossom »

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #927 on: January 31, 2014, 02:05:49 PM »
As are the major discrepancies and other changes between the first and second statements of GM and others in the group

of course the statements written in Portuguese..im sure the translators made loads of mistakes

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #928 on: January 31, 2014, 10:17:56 PM »
of course the statements written in Portuguese..im sure the translators made loads of mistakes

Would you like any more straws to clutch at?
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #929 on: January 31, 2014, 10:21:39 PM »
Would you like any more straws to clutch at?

dont need them... id bet my house those statements are full of translation errors