Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Alice Purjorick]

in this instance I certainly am in a postion to correct sil...in fact alice came to exactly the same conclusion as me as you have just done...all possible outcomes must add up to unity

I would hope what Alice said was:
"The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must be unity" because that is the case.

[John]

I cannot see how statistics can be applied to a missing child case without all the facts being known and corroborated.

Maybe davel could enlighten us?

[Alice Purjorick]

I cannot see how statistics can be applied to a missing child case without all the facts being known and corroborated.

Maybe davel could enlighten us?

Statistics give data from which the process that generated those data is inferred.
The only data we have here is a child disappeared on May 3rd 2007.......................?

[stephen25000]

I cannot see how statistics can be applied to a missing child case without all the facts being known and corroborated.

Maybe davel could enlighten us?

Indeed.

We await.

[sadie]

Indeed.

We await.

YAWN !

Oh pardon me, but I hated statistics, when I had to do them ... and still do

   ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Mr Gray]

As i have said if the parents are not suspects abduction is odds on.
If the parents are not suspects that leaves woke and wandered and abduction.

we then have...the open window....if the parents are not suspects then we can assume they are not lying...and then we have the archiving report ...

As a remote hypothesis, the possibility of the minor leaving the apartment by her own means was explored – that would be highly unlikely physically – and after, because of an accident or by a third person intervention, she would have disappeared.

the archiving report is of the opinion that maddie leaving the apartment herself is highly unlikely and they have all the available information

All the gates and doors were closed and again it is highly unlikely that a child leaving the apartment would close them.

Finally if Maddie had left the apartment she would likely have been seen or headed for the tapas bar herself.

This leaves abduction as the most likely scenario

[stephen25000]

As i have said if the parents are not suspects abduction is odds on.
If the parents are not suspects that leaves woke and wandered and abduction.

we then have...the open window....if the parents are not suspects then we can assume they are not lying...and then we have the archiving report ...

As a remote hypothesis, the possibility of the minor leaving the apartment by her own means was explored – that would be highly unlikely physically – and after, because of an accident or by a third person intervention, she would have disappeared.

the archiving report is of the opinion that maddie leaving the apartment herself is highly unlikely and they have all the available information

All the gates and doors were closed and again it is highly unlikely that a child leaving the apartment would close them.

Finally if Maddie had left the apartment she would likely have been seen or headed for the tapas bar herself.

This leaves abduction as the most likely scenario

No, it doesn't.

You have no idea if the mccanns and others accounts of events are accurate.

It is clear SY had only one remit, abduction., and they have found NOTHING.

Now what were you saying yesterday as regards statistics ?

[stephen25000]

YAWN !

Oh pardon me, but I hated statistics, when I had to do them ... and still do

   ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Then perhaps Sadie, you need to pay more attention to that branch of Mathematics.

[Mr Gray]

No, it doesn't.

You have no idea if the mccanns and others accounts of events are accurate.

It is clear SY had only one remit, abduction., and they have found NOTHING.

Now what were you saying yesterday as regards statistics ?

Now where

I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report

[stephen25000]

I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report

As I have been reminded a few times, by mccann supporters, a lack of evidence does not mean it doesn't exist.

[slartibartfast]

I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report

Still no statistics then?

[Mr Gray]

Still no statistics then?

Statistics is the study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data

Data....facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis.

its statistics Jim....But not as you know it

[stephen25000]

Statistics is the study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data

Data....facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis.

its statistics Jim....But not as you know it

We know that already.

Now what did you say you would do yesterday ?



Are you reneging on your word  ?

[stephen25000]

Davel, we all read what you typed yesterday.

It is a matter of record.

[Angelo222]

You said later davel and that we wouldn't be disappointed?

As it stands I put the probability of abduction at less than 50%