Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[John]

nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out

Fact is children do die at home because of accidents.  They also die whilst on holiday.

[Alice Purjorick]

nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out

There is when the postulation was "children 0f 3-4 do not die in accidents in the home".
To save all the pointless kin ping pong why do you not write down precisely what your postulation is in
this instance instead of adding bits as you go along ?

[G-Unit]

If we start with the fact I gave - last seen at 5.30pm - can anyone tell me where you go from there? What could have happened in four and a half hours? May I suggest examining the possible variables, beginning with the obvious two.

The child died.
The child lived.

What are the probabilities of those two possibilities?

The parents keep repeating there is no evidence that she was harmed.

There's no hard evidence of whether she lived or died. What about clues?

[Mr Gray]

There is when the postulation was "children 0f 3-4 do not die in accidents in the home".
To save all the pointless kin ping pong why do you not write down precisely what your postulation is in
this instance instead of adding bits as you go along ?

I have never said children do not die in accidents in the home and have clearly stated exactly what I think several times...its tiresome when posters don't remember and I have to continually repeat it
Domestic head injuries don't cause death in this time frame and in fact rarely cause death
Fires and stairs are featured in the most common scenarios and blind cords
None of these would feature inside the apartment

[Alice Purjorick]

I have never said children do not die in accidents in the home and have clearly stated exactly what I think several times...its tiresome when posters don't remember and I have to continually repeat it
Domestic head injuries don't cause death in this time frame and in fact rarely cause death
Fires and stairs are featured in the most common scenarios and blind cords
None of these would feature inside the apartment

Fires: why not ?
Blind cords: what about the internal CDA that operates the external shutter?

[Mr Gray]

Fires: why not ?
Blind cords: what about the internal CDA that operates the external shutter?

There was no fire
The internal cord does not hang freely

[Alice Purjorick]

There was no fire
The internal cord does not hang freely

1 Well spotted but the risk remained.
2 So?

[slartibartfast]

you wont be disappointed

Well I am, so that's a lie.

[G-Unit]

Well I am, so that's a lie.

I don't understand why nobody has attempted to demonstrate, using statistics, the likelihood of Madeleine being abducted. The thread seems to be about anything but.

[slartibartfast]

I don't understand why nobody has attempted to demonstrate, using statistics, the likelihood of Madeleine being abducted. The thread seems to be about anything but.

Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.

[Wonderfulspam]

Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.

 

[Alfie]

Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.

Why is that?  Is it the least likely of the three options for Ben Needham too, out of interest? 

[Mr Gray]

Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.

Based on what

[Alice Purjorick]

Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.

Abduction by stranger probability 0.0000017.
I am sure someone can show it isn't with appropriate cites and calcs. etc if it isn't.

[Mr Gray]

Abduction by stranger probability 0.0000017.
I am sure someone can show it isn't with appropriate cites and calcs. etc if it isn't.

No it's up to the poster to explain and support your posts
Probability that both you and slarti  won't be able to
100%