Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[stephen25000]

then provide the solution or the cite...it is a stupid question

Par for the course reply.

Let's hear your probability for abduction and the statistical basis on which you arrive at the figure.

[Mr Gray]

Explain how and why.

you are asking others for proof when you are supplying none


can you prove Maddie was not abducted by aliens from another planet

[Mr Gray]

Par for the course reply.

Let's hear you probability for abduction and the statistical basis on which you arrive at the figure.

what figure

[Alice Purjorick]

because we do not have enough information to make such an accurate calculation

But you have said the probability of abduction by stranger is > 0.5. How did you arrive at that ?

[Mr Gray]

But you have said the probability of abduction by stranger is > 0.5. How did you arrive at that ?

only if the parents have been deemed not suspects

[Alice Purjorick]

you are asking others for proof when you are supplying none


can you prove Maddie was not abducted by aliens from another planet

1 I have provided a figure that is in a link on this thread in December 2013
2 No.

[stephen25000]

what figure

The one you have given before.

[Mr Gray]

The one you have given before.

I haven't given  a figure,,,,

[stephen25000]

you are asking others for proof when you are supplying none


can you prove Maddie was not abducted by aliens from another planet

You mean Ceti Alpha V ?

KHANNN.......... %£5&% %£5&%

[stephen25000]

I haven't given  a figure,,,,

So you don't remember giving 0.99 ?

[Mr Gray]

So you don't remember giving 0.99 ?

no I don't

[Alice Purjorick]

only if the parents have been deemed not suspects

That does not explain how you arrived at the figure it merely states a condition that you applied.

[Mr Gray]

That does not explain how you arrived at the figure it merely states a condition that you applied.

I never arrived at a figure I said it was odds on..

[Alice Purjorick]

I never arrived at a figure I said it was odds on..

Quite, and I said you arrived at a figure > 0.5.

[lordpookles]

Wouldn't odds on mean > 0.33 if we assume only 3 options? Depending on the number of options that figure changes... To keep it simple I guess > 0.5 if we assume only abducted and not abducted...