Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[slartibartfast]

not at all....the one piece of information that changes the odds dramatically is that Maddie is missing...if you cannot understand that simple fact it really is a waste of time


we know that the sum of all outcomes is unity so if abduction is such a tiny figure what are the valuues for the other outcomes....think about that and you will see why your position makes no sense

That is a given, the population used for calculation has to be children who go missing.

[Mr Gray]

That is a given, the population used for calculation has to be children who go missing.

No ...absolutely not......the population is children who go missing and are not found.......thats where your mistake is

[Alfie]

I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.

One final example.

The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one.   The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.

[Mr Gray]

I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.

One final example.

The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one.   The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.

I am astounded too and it does tell us a lot...if sceptics cannot or refuse to accept a simple concept that is absolutely true and cannot be contested....what does that say for the rest of their judgements.....I rest my case

[stephen25000]

I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.

One final example.

The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one.   The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.

Well Alf and Davel, can you both enact some application in the realm of statistics and give us the measure of the probability of Madeleine having being abducted.

Bearing in mind, there is zero forensic evidence of any third person in the apartment. Likewise the Police inquiries have failed to find any link to a paedophile(s), and of course not one sign of her since she disappeared.

[Mr Gray]

Well Alf and Davel, can you both enact some application in the realm of statistics and give us the measure of the probability of Madeleine having being abducted.

Bearing in mind, there is zero forensic evidence of any third person in the apartment. Likewise the Police inquiries have failed to find any link to a paedophile(s), and of course not one sign of her since she disappeared.

perhaps you could give your estimate of the three possibilities ...abduction certainly isnt 1 in a hundred million or whatever tiny figure you seem to think it is

[stephen25000]

perhaps you could give your estimate of the three possibilities ...abduction certainly isnt 1 in a hundred million or whatever tiny figure you seem to think it is

I have asked you or Alf to provide a figure, and you indicated you would the other day.

We're still waiting.

[Mr Gray]

I have asked you or Alf to provide a figure, and you indicated you would the other day.

We're still waiting.

if you cannot understand that the probability of abduction is not one in several million......a fact which is patently clear...then any further discussion on the topic is futile

[carlymichelle]

I didn't say it was.

We have been quoting Gerry Mccann and his made up figures.

So, live up to what you said the other day, because if you don't, nothing you say can be taken seriously.

IMO.

i dont understand how  davel and alfie  cling to maddie being  abducted like it is   a good thing??  anything to make the mcanns innocent  rght??

[Mr Gray]

it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...

my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%...
Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100
if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate

[stephen25000]

it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arresred or charged...

my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%...
Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100
if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate

You haven't being paying attention.

Since there is no evidence of an abduction or anything else that could be used in court, then all the realistic scenarios add up to 100%, and none have been disproved or confirmed.

Therefore giving them equal weighting would be logical.

Your 95 % 'estimation' is totally meaningless.

[Wonderfulspam]

it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...

my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%...
Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100
if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate

W@W doesn't explain the open window, so, it must be, 100%, abduction.

Yet... OG is the investigation into the 'disappearence' of MM.

And according to Redwood, 'she is a little girl who's lost' (CW)

And according to Hulk....'it's a child who went missing'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3559134/Police-say-investigation-missing-Madeleine-McCann-end-soon.html

[stephen25000]

i dont understand how  davel and alfie  cling to maddie being  abducted like it is   a good thing??  anything to make the mcanns innocent  rght??

That is basically it.

For without an abduction and therefore an abductor(s) to blame, what are we left with ?

[Alice Purjorick]

I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.

One final example.

The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one.   The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.

There remains a fundamental flaw in your presentation here.
See if you can spot it.

[Mr Gray]

You haven't being paying attention.

Since there is no evidence of an abduction or anything else that could be used in court, then all the realistic scenarios add up to 100%, and none have been disproved or confirmed.

Therefore giving them equal weighting would be logical.

Your 95 % 'estimation' is totally meaningless.

so you say 33 and a third for all three....at least that adds up to 100. so mccanns involvement 33.3%...yet they are not suspects....doesn't seem logical to me