Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[jassi]

that would be parental involvement

True, but if they were not physically involved in transportation, it opens up a whole new range of options to consider.

[Mr Gray]

True, but if they were not physically involved in transportation, it opens up a whole new range of options to consider.

keep it up...if you can get to 10 stephen will say its 10% each...

[Alice Purjorick]

in your opinion...i would say Alf and I have made very good points

I said you have failed to make a case.
Start from the point you enjoy misquoting.
This is the proper expression:

"The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must be unity".

[stephen25000]

I can't really be bothered discussing it with you as you don't understand the basics...the point I made was totally relevant

You plucked a figure of 95% from the air.

You have no statistical base for your prediction at all as far as I can see.

If you have , provide it.

[Alfie]

True, but if they were not physically involved in transportation, it opens up a whole new range of options to consider.

That's irrelevant.  There are only 3 options.  Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents).  You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction.  You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.

One of these three options definitely happened.  The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation.  That leaves us with two options.  Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.

[slartibartfast]

Of course you have to look at the probabilities of the other options to refine the probability of abduction.

So what is the probability of a child of nearly 4 with documented sleeping issues prior to the holiday and waking incidents during the holiday leaving an unlocked apartment on the implied instruction of its mother?

[sadie]

Carly you should go there and see before you make such sweeping statements

It really did feel like being in a back garden space wise.  I am not talking about your typical town garden but a decent country garden.  I have three friends with gardens as big and bigger.

They were only 50 metres away, the apartment patio area was bathed in light and with the trees and bushes just cut back was very visible to the Tapas friends.  Many parents have been that far away from the children within their own gardens.  Me included.


I was amazed how cozy the Tapas area felt when I went in.  There was a smallish-medium pool (by todays standards), two tennis Courts, The tapas buildings and the play area and I thought that it would be enormous, but it didn't feel that way at all.  Part Owner George Crossland, who was also the main architect, had done a marvellous job of packing everything in and making it feel homely.


The Tapas area was the "back garden" to the apartments.  Just a few seconds away

The Mccanns thought that the front of 5A was secure.  They had left the front door in a state that it needed a key to get in and  had mistakenly thought that the shutters were security.



As far as they were concerned the front was secure and the back was overlooked by their party from only 50 metres away

They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting  AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes. 

Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes. 

And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in. 

Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute?  Of course not.

Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up?  ....  My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that.  ....  Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished. 
.

[Alfie]

Of course you have to look at the probabilities of the other options to refine the probability of abduction.

So what is the probability of a child of nearly 4 with documented sleeping issues prior to the holiday and waking incidents during the holiday leaving an unlocked apartment on the implied instruction of its mother?

What is the probability of a child of nearly 4 leaving an apartment in a holiday resort during opening hours on her own and disappearing without trace, with no third party involvement whatsoever? 

[stephen25000]

That's irrelevant.  There are only 3 options.  Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents).  You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction.  You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.

One of these three options definitely happened.  The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation.  That leaves us with two options.  Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.

No, we don'the know the parents have been fully investigated by SY.

There is no evidence of anything Alfie that is of any use.

So 3 possibilities, equal weighting.

[sadie]

That's irrelevant.  There are only 3 options.  Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents).  You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction.  You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.

One of these three options definitely happened.  The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation.  That leaves us with two options.  Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.

And two men individually fast walking around PdL with a little girl in their arms.  In both cases the little girl was bare footed and ill protected from the gusty coolish evening; not the acts of a father who was himself wearing a substantial jacket, substantial trousers and shoes.

Furthermore neither man was walking FROM the direction of any crèche ... now that is strange

[sadie]

No, we don'the know the parents have been fully investigated by SY.

There is no evidence of anything Alfie that is of any use.

So 3 possibilities, equal weighting.

We are not talking about some third rate investigators here, Stephen

Of course they have been investigated by SY.

[Alice Purjorick]

That's irrelevant.  There are only 3 options.  Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents).  You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction.  You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.

One of these three options definitely happened.  The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation.  That leaves us with two options.  Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.

Are you saying that your methodology is to identify all possible outcomes then assign each outcome to one of n predetermined groups and then redefine this as only n possible outcomes?

[slartibartfast]

We are not talking about some third rate investigators here, Stephen

Of course they have been investigated by SY.

Cite.

[slartibartfast]

What is the probability of a child of nearly 4 leaving an apartment in a holiday resort during opening hours on her own and disappearing without trace, with no third party involvement whatsoever?

So you are including that in absuction?

[Alfie]

So you are including that in absuction?

Abduction, yes, absuction no.