Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[stephen25000]

We are not talking about some third rate investigators here, Stephen

Of course they have been investigated by SY.

SY haven'the found anything Sadie.


Mind you they have plenty of files.

[Mr Gray]

No, we don'the know the parents have been fully investigated by SY.

There is no evidence of anything Alfie that is of any use.

So 3 possibilities, equal weighting.

were they equal weighting when the mccanns were arguidos...when it was reported maddies dna had been found in the hire car....

[Alice Purjorick]

there is no flaw

So you can't spot it either ?

[Mr Gray]

So you can't spot it either ?

spot what

[G-Unit]

Carly you should go there and see before you make such sweeping statements

It really did feel like being in a back garden space wise.  I am not talking about your typical town garden but a decent country garden.  I have three friends with gardens as big and bigger.

They were only 50 metres away, the apartment patio area was bathed in light and with the trees and bushes just cut back was very visible to the Tapas friends.  Many parents have been that far away from the children within their own gardens.  Me included.


I was amazed how cozy the Tapas area felt when I went in.  There was a smallish-medium pool (by todays standards), two tennis Courts, The tapas buildings and the play area and I thought that it would be enormous, but it didn't feel that way at all.  Part Owner George Crossland, who was also the main architect, had done a marvellous job of packing everything in and making it feel homely.


The Tapas area was the "back garden" to the apartments.  Just a few seconds away

The Mccanns thought that the front of 5A was secure.  They had left the front door in a state that it needed a key to get in and  had mistakenly thought that the shutters were security.



As far as they were concerned the front was secure and the back was overlooked by their party from only 50 metres away

They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting  AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes.

Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes.

And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in.

Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute?  Of course not.

Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up?  ....  My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that.  ....  Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished.  .

There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.

The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.

[Angelo222]

That's irrelevant.  There are only 3 options.  Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents).  You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction.  You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.

One of these three options definitely happened.  The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation.  That leaves us with two options.  Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.

The open shutter and window could very well be associated with the woke and wandered scenario Alfie, you really haven't thought this through properly mate.  A burglar thinking everyone is out opens the shutter and slides open the window wakening Madeleine and scaring the shit out of her.  Burglar makes off with his tail between his legs leaving said window and shutter open.  A terrified Madeleine realising that she could be in danger looks for a way out of the apartment and realsiing the patio door is open manages to get out into the road.  Several possibilities exist from this point including abduction.

[Angelo222]

They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting  AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes. 

Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes. 

And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in. 

Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute?  Of course not.

Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up?  ....  My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that.  ....  Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished. 
.

That is false and extremely disingenuous of you to claim that Sadie when you know it to be untrue.  We know for a fact that nobody visited the children to check on them every 30 minutes on the Tuesday evening prior to the disappearance.  Mrs Fenn recorded a child crying in the apartment below her for well over an hour.  It stopped when she heard the parents enter the apartment.  This child later turned out to be Madeleine who was asute enough to bring up the subject with her mother the next day.  I believe the words were, why did you not come when me and Sean cried?

Please keep to the evidence Sadie.

[Alfie]

The open shutter and window could very well be associated with the woke and wandered scenario Alfie, you really haven't thought this through properly mate.  A burglar thinking everyone is out opens the shutter and slides open the window wakening Madeleine and scaring the shit out of her.  Burglar makes off with his tail between his legs leaving said window and shutter open.  A terrified Madeleine realising that she could be in danger looks for a way out of the apartment and realsiing the patio door is open manages to get out into the road.  Several possibilities exist from this point including abduction.

IMO the open window points to 3rd party involvement which ever way you look at it.  The idea that Madeleine woke up, left the apartment never to be seen again without there having been 3rd party involvement is a non-starter as far as I'm concerned.  But I take your point.  Your scenario is a possible (though highly unlikely IMO) explanation for the open window. 

[Angelo222]

And two men individually fast walking around PdL with a little girl in their arms.  In both cases the little girl was bare footed and ill protected from the gusty coolish evening; not the acts of a father who was himself wearing a substantial jacket, substantial trousers and shoes.

Furthermore neither man was walking FROM the direction of any crèche ... now that is strange

Seems it wasn't that strange since Scotland Yard and Redwood have reached the conclusion despite the breeze that one of them was in fact an innocent tourist.

[Angelo222]

SY haven'the found anything Sadie.


Mind you they have plenty of files.

That's not strictly true Stephen, they found an old sock and a mutton bone.   

[Angelo222]

IMO the open window points to 3rd party involvement which ever way you look at it.  The idea that Madeleine woke up, left the apartment never to be seen again without there having been 3rd party involvement is a non-starter as far as I'm concerned.  But I take your point.  Your scenario is a possible (though highly unlikely IMO) explanation for the open window.

Why is it highly unlikely?  I find it extremely plausible given the evidence that nobody climbed into the apartment.  Unless one of the parents open it of course?

[slartibartfast]

Abduction, yes, absuction no.

So she woke up, left the apartment and at some point was picked up by a ne'er-do-well never to be seen again? So why is this theory so resisted?

[stephen25000]

That's not strictly true Stephen, they found an old sock and a mutton bone.   

Fair point.

....and a few trips to the Algarve on the tax payer.

[jassi]

So she woke up, left the apartment and at some point was picked up by a ne'er-do-well never to be seen again? So why is this theory so resisted?

Clearly not the right sort of abduction 

[Alfie]

Why is it highly unlikely?  I find it extremely plausible given the evidence that nobody climbed into the apartment.  Unless one of the parents open it of course?

Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.