Author Topic: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..  (Read 228932 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1215 on: June 23, 2016, 09:50:14 PM »
A timely reminder.

A lack of evidence is what marks this case.

There is nothing to show that any one of the three scenarios has any more  than the other two in explaining what happens.

However, if there was no abduction, then all roads point in one direction.

You mean Maddie woke and wandered
Correct

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1216 on: June 23, 2016, 09:50:36 PM »
ORLY ? ?{)(**

You can believe in any story you wish Sadie.

However, all you have is your theories and nothing you have said will change that. 8((()*/

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1217 on: June 23, 2016, 09:51:12 PM »
You mean Maddie woke and wandered
Correct

No Dave.

Wrong as usual.

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1218 on: June 23, 2016, 09:56:32 PM »
That is false and extremely disingenuous of you to claim that Sadie when you know it to be untrue.  We know for a fact that nobody visited the children to check on them every 30 minutes on the Tuesday evening prior to the disappearance.  Mrs Fenn recorded a child crying in the apartment below her for well over an hour.  It stopped when she heard the parents enter the apartment.  This child later turned out to be Madeleine who was asute enough to bring up the subject with her mother the next day.  I believe the words were, why did you not come when me and Sean cried?

Please keep to the evidence Sadie.

Angelo, we are talking in this thread about the particular night that Madeleine was abducted / went missing.  The thread title is  * Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *.

Was she abducted on the Tuesday ?  No.  She was abducted on the Thursday when a 30 minute check was in place

... and apart from that, we do not know which child was crying as you must well know.  That is because Mrs Fenn heard a child crying on the Tuesday night , but Madeleine was upset on the Wednesday night.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1219 on: June 23, 2016, 09:57:59 PM »
No Dave.

Wrong as usual.
How do you explain you believe Maddie died in an accident but only see that scenario as 33 and a third probable
Same as abduction
So you believe abduction is just as probable as an accident

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1220 on: June 23, 2016, 10:52:07 PM »
How do you explain you believe Maddie died in an accident but only see that scenario as 33 and a third probable
Same as abduction
So you believe abduction is just as probable as an accident

I give each possibility 33 1/3 %.

There is no evidence to show any one of them is right or wrong.

I also know a belief in one theory is not an absolute.

How about you ?

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1221 on: June 23, 2016, 10:59:46 PM »
I don't think Sadie was referring to the OC, but to hotels where the receptionist 'listens'.

Dianne was facing the tapas entrance. Moving clockwise were Matt, David and Gerry. all with their backs to block 5. Fiona was next to Gerry, then Kate. Jane, Rachael and Russell were next, probably facing block 5.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/FIONA-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm

Rachael said she could see the top half of the patio doors only; not that she particularly looked.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RACHAEL-OLDFIELD-ROGATORY.htm

As a point of interest the Tapas pool wasn't particularly small at 37 meters long. An Olympic pool is 50 meters, but many pools are 25 meters.

By modern standards at most places, that pool is rather small, but maybe you stay at different places where small pools are de rigur.  I make it 35 metres, but that is from the farthest point to the farthest point .  As it is a funny shape the average length is about 29 -30 metres.   In suppose that is a decent size for the number of people using it, but it would be unusual for a modern pool (where I holiday Anyway) to be that small.

You are quite right, I wasn't referring particularly to Ocean Club, when I talked about queues at the reception and interruptions.   At one hotel we stayed at, a brand new gorgeous hotel (then), one evening we saw a queue of hundreds of people waiting to check in.  It was a fairly big hotel and there were 4 receptionists struggling to cope.  A flight had been cancelled and everyone bused to this almost empty new hotel

Without doubt, any time honoured method of receptionists listening to baby alarms in rooms would have gone straight out of the window for several hours that night.

Rachel was talking generally about her flat and the Mccanns.  The bushes and straw sunshades were not evenly distributed and of variable height.  I wasn't looking at her flat so cannot comment on how clearly it could be seen. 

Certainly a bit of the bottom of the patio windows was hidden by the low wall under the railings and the fact that the diners were at a lower level had a minor affect as well, but I could see virtually the whole of the patio windows with the exception of these very low bits. 

The group sat a couple of metres or so, further west in the tapas restaurant to where we sat.

We were lucky, the bushes had been recently trimmed back.  Our view would have been very different had it been a couple of months later.  Greenery grows amazingly rapidly on the Western Algarve.


Offline Angelo222

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1222 on: June 23, 2016, 11:47:52 PM »
Angelo, we are talking in this thread about the particular night that Madeleine was abducted / went missing.  The thread title is  * Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *.

Was she abducted on the Tuesday ?  No.  She was abducted on the Thursday when a 30 minute check was in place

... and apart from that, we do not know which child was crying as you must well know.  That is because Mrs Fenn heard a child crying on the Tuesday night , but Madeleine was upset on the Wednesday night.

We know very well who the child was but you cannot admit it to yourself.   According to the tapas group the regime was supposed to be one of checking at 30 minute intervals every night but that is false. They invented the 30 minute checking story to cover their own backsides, they were caught out lying after Mrs Fenn came forward and told of the crying incident on the Tuesday night.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 12:05:37 AM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1223 on: June 24, 2016, 12:03:46 AM »
We know very well who the child was but you cannot admit it to yourself.   According to the tapas group the regime was supposed to be one of checking at 30 minute intervals every night but that is false. They were caught out lying after Mrs Fenn came forward and told of the crying incident.
I was within the bounds of the title of this thread, Angelo.

* Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *

The night that she vanished was the Thursday and the Mccanns practiced the 30 minute and pop into the apartment routine all that evening.

We do not know whose little one was crying, when Mrs Fenn commented about THE TUESDAY NIGHT ... and we do not know if The Mccanns practiced the 30 minute, pop in routine on the other nights.



Please do not mislead us again about the nights of the Mrs Fenn Crying incident.  It was TUESDAY NOT WEDNESDAY

Thanks   8((()*/

Offline Angelo222

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1224 on: June 24, 2016, 12:05:57 AM »
I was within the bounds of the title of this thread, Angelo.

* Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *

The night that she vanished was the Thursday and the Mccanns practiced the 30 minute and pop into the apartment routine all that evening.

We do not know whose little one was crying, when Mrs Fenn commented about THE TUESDAY NIGHT ... and we do not know if The Mccanns practiced the 30 minute, pop in routine on the other nights.



Please do not mislead us again about the nights of the Mrs Fenn Crying incident.  It was TUESDAY NOT WEDNESDAY

Thanks   8((()*/

You best read the tapas group statements again then.  And by the way I stated the crying was on the Tuesday night.

Kate McCann knew about the crying by the Wednesday yet on the Thursday night she never went back to the apartment at all after leaving it at around 8.30pm.  It wasn't until she decided to check on the children at 10pm that she found Madeleine gone. The only other person who claims to have seen Madeleine was Gerry who apparently saw her at 9.10pm. Assuming that is correct then there was only one proper check between 8.30pm and 10pm and not checks every 30 minutes as you claim.

As far as statistics are concerned and the probability that Madeleine was abducted I don't think anyone has a cat in hells chance of working that one out.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 12:13:59 AM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1225 on: June 24, 2016, 12:29:14 AM »
You best read the tapas group statements again then.  And by the way I stated the crying was on the Tuesday night.

Kate McCann knew about the crying by the Wednesday yet on the Thursday night she never went back to the apartment at all after leaving it at around 8.30pm.  It wasn't until she decided to check on the children at 10pm that she found Madeleine gone. The only other person who claims to have seen Madeleine was Gerry who apparently saw her at 9.10pm. Assuming that is correct then there was only one proper check between 8.30pm and 10pm and not checks every 30 minutes as you claim.

I am not going to recheck it, my eyesight is not up to it, but I am pretty confident that it was on the Thursday morning that Madeleine commented about her crying the night before.  In other words she cried on the Wednesday evening.  It cant have been loud because Mrs Fenn didn't hear anything on the Wednesday night.

As for the checks, please do not deceive

1)  8.30-8.35 Kate and Gerry Mccann left the apartments

2)  9.00 (ish) Matt made an unscheduled listening- at- the- window check.  Seems Gerry was not content with this cos

3)  9.10 (ish) Gerry went to the apartment and visually checked Madeleine and the twins.

4)  9.30 (ish) Kate stood up to take her turn but Matt who was doing his check offered to do hers for her.  He went into the apartment this time and saw the twins, but Madeleines bed was out of sight around the corner and he didn't visually sheck her

5)  10.00 Kate went to do her check.  She listened at the door (which was unusually open) and the wind caught the door, slamming it.  Alarmed she found the window and shutter partly open and Madeleine gone.

The checks were better than every half hour because Matt had added an unscheduled one.  And every half hour someone checked actually in the apartment.


Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1226 on: June 24, 2016, 12:31:35 AM »
According to Matt, Gerry left as soon as he returned so it's not 10 minutes later. No wonder Matt thought it to be odd because it was.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1227 on: June 24, 2016, 12:48:28 AM »
According to Matt, Gerry left as soon as he returned so it's not 10 minutes later. No wonder Matt thought it to be odd because it was.

Hang on a bit.

I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect.  This is not a military exercise after all.   You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.

Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1228 on: June 24, 2016, 12:59:16 AM »
Hang on a bit.

I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect.  This is not a military exercise after all.   You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.

Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.

Matt thought it was odd and he was there. He had just checked and everyone was now at the table but one left quickly.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline sadie

Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
« Reply #1229 on: June 24, 2016, 01:07:39 AM »
Matt thought it was odd and he was there. He had just checked and everyone was now at the table but one left quickly.

Make something of it if it pleases you, but most people would think that Gerry just wanted to make sure that the kids were alright ... and he wasn't happy with just a listen at the window check.