Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[mercury]

Make something of it if it pleases you, but most people would think that Gerry just wanted to make sure that the kids were alright ... and he wasn't happy with just a listen at the window check.

Why not? Thats effectively what he did every night for almost a week, just listen from the living room and never do a visual check, dont need to reply, just saying

[sadie]

Why not? Thats effectively what he did every night for almost a week, just listen from the living room and never do a visual check, dont need to reply, just saying

Same as most people do, if you are honest

And anyway, we don't know what he did on the other days because it isn't itemised

[mercury]

Same as most people do, if you are honest

And anyway, we don't know what he did on the other days because it isn't itemised

He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check

So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh

[stephen25000]

He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check

So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh

Precisely Mercury.

Sadie needs to pay more attention to the facts.

[pathfinder73]

Hang on a bit.

I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect.  This is not a military exercise after all.   You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.

Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.

Every second is vital is in an unsolved missing child case if your aim is to find the truth. Lost minutes here and there are unknown opportunities to make that child disappear. So from Matt's witness account, we are looking at a much earlier time when Gerry left the table to check not 9:10/15. I would ask him to explain why it is so late on the first timelines (missing Madeleine's sticker book) in an interview. Months later in September he gave an exact time of 9:04. So why wasn't this exact time written down in the first timelines? That means the police were working from false information from the start if they were going by those timelines.

detective - done in order to find out hidden or unknown information

[sadie]

He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check

So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh

OK if you say so.  My mistake.  My apologies.

Post amended.

sadie

[John]

According to Gerry Mccann, the "odds are in the order of 100 million to 1"
He is a man of science, hs calcs must be close

@2.10

A subtle difference here mercury.  Gerry was suggesting that the chances of this happening were 100,000,000 to 1.  The probability that she was abducted as against other reasons for her disappearance is something else.

[John]

it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...

my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%...
Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100
if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate

I go with the three options suggested by Alf as a starting point but 95% for abduction is simply absurd davel.

I would hazard a guess at 40% for woke/wandered/met with accident, 50% for stranger abducted and 10% the rest.

[mercury]

A subtle difference here mercury.  Gerry was suggesting that the chances of this happening were 100,000,000 to 1.  The probability that she was abducted as against other reasons for her disappearance is something else.

Ok thanks
That leaves me not understanding the thread title/question

How can statistics determine chances?

All greek to me as they say.

All I know from what I have read over the years is that more parents/familial friends/contacts as well as fatal home accidents are responsible for child demises than strangers stealing and or killing children

[John]

Ok thanks
That leaves me not understanding the thread title/question

How can statistics determine chances?

All greek to me as they say.

All I know from what I have read over the years is that more parents/familial friends/contacts as well as fatal home accidents are responsible for child demises than strangers stealing and or killing children

I see what you mean but you have to read the opening post as well as posts #1 and #2.

The full title should read, what are the chances that Maddie was abducted as against other possibilities?

[mercury]

I see what you mean but you have to read the opening post in conjunction with the heading.

No, the opening post doesnt matter at all as statistics and chances are nothing much to do with views or "conclusions" the op alledges have been made

I fail to see any connection between stats chances and ,views judgements or conclusions

Only in a science lab this might, just, matter

[Mr Gray]

I go with the three options suggested by Alf as a starting point but 95% for abduction is simply absurd davel.

I would hazard a guess at 40% for woke/wandered/met with accident, 50% for stranger abducted and 10% the rest.

I would say your woke and wandered is quite high as is your parental involvement. I think some will be shocked that you have put abduction at 50% but at least you accept that is the most likely cause which will upset some posters. I started the thread because it appears some posters think abduction is a very unlikely scenario....which it obviously is not

[stephen25000]

Yet there is no evidence of abduction or any of the other scenarios which show what happened to Madeleine.

So any figure postulated is merely an opinion.

and since her fate is unknown,as is the cause, all of the theories have equal weighting.

[Mr Gray]

Yet there is no evidence of abduction or any of the other scenarios which show what happened to Madeleine.

So any figure postulated is merely an opinion.

and since her fate is unknown,as is the cause, all of the theories have equal weighting.

seems you are the only person who thinks all three have equal weighting...doesn't that tell you something

[stephen25000]

seems you are the only person who thinks all three have equal weighting...doesn't that tell you something

Not really.

Can you tell me concisely and with cites, how Madeleine disappeared from the apartment ?