Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

Not really.

Can you tell me concisely and with cites, how Madeleine disappeared from the apartment ?

I have told you what I think....and you have told us you believe Maddie died in an accident....can you tell us with cites why you believe this

[stephen25000]

I have told you what I think....and you have told us you believe Maddie died in an accident....can you tell us with cites why you believe this

I have said what I think.

I have given all 3 scenarios equal weighting, since there is no evidence which supports any one above another.

[Mr Gray]

I have said what I think.

I have given all 3 scenarios equal weighting, since there is no evidence which supports any one above another.

so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds

[stephen25000]

so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds

How do we know what the mccanns are really like behind the scenes ?

Do you know them personally ?

The bottom line remains, neither we or the police know how Madeleine was removed from the apartment.

[Mr Gray]

How do we know what the mccanns are really like behind the scenes ?

Do you know them personally ?

The bottom line remains, neither we or the police know how Madeleine was removed from the apartment.

unable to answer the question because your logic is flawed

[stephen25000]

unable to answer the question because your logic is flawed

Fascinating.

Same old mantra, repeated ad infinitum.

[Mr Gray]

Fascinating.

Same old mantra, repeated ad infinitum.

and you still cannot answer the question

[stephen25000]

and you still cannot answer the question

I have.

You don't want to accept the answer.

As to not answering questions, I leave that to you.

[Mr Gray]

I have.

You don't want to accept the answer.

As to not answering questions, I leave that to you.

so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds

[stephen25000]

so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds

You have nothing to say of any value.

You are now on ignore.

[Mr Gray]

You have nothing to say of any value.

You are now on ignore.

So you can't answer the post
I will continue to read and criticise your posts as I wish
Obviously the social history of the family does affect the odds
If the McCanns had a history of drug and child abuse then the probability of their involvement would increase the odds of involvement
The fact that they don't reduces the probability

[Alice Purjorick]

I would say your woke and wandered is quite high as is your parental involvement. I think some will be shocked that you have put abduction at 50% but at least you accept that is the most likely cause which will upset some posters. I started the thread because it appears some posters think abduction is a very unlikely scenario....which it obviously is not

Why?
The clues in "why not" ? are the words "hazard a guess"

[Mr Gray]

Why?
The clues in "why not" ? are the words "hazard a guess"

rather than just criticise...you must have an idea of what you consider the odds to be...are you willing to share...if not you should stop criticising those who have. Very interesting that all three posters who have given an opinion have shown strong support for abduction

[Alice Purjorick]

so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds

Is that statistical odds or bookmakers odds ?

[Alice Purjorick]

rather than just criticise...you must have an idea of what you consider the odds to be...are you willing to share...if not you should stop criticising those who have. Very interesting that all three posters who have given an opinion have shown strong support for abduction

Interesting yes but it does not mean all three are correct.
All three are guesses informed or otherwise. I'll comment when I can see some calculations.
Until then to paraphrase you "I will post and criticise as I wish".