Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?

[Lyall]

Maybe they were arrogant and thought they were the more clever than the PJ and SY.. and they cannot get caught.
Which is exactly what happened. 

It's not easy to catch phantoms

[VIXTE]

It's not easy to catch phantoms

I bet it is not.. seven years on and we are still talking about it..
Whoever's done it must be very proud..

And if all prejudice was eliminated.. then the case would be solved easily..

Maybe it was very simple... a local loner went in, took the child, abused her and killed her.. and hidden the evidence..
Maybe even not so clever person.. maybe bellow the average level of intelligence.. but the angle of looking at it was and still is wrong..

[Sherlock Holmes]

Statistics do not prove nothing about a single case. What I want to show is that the offenders are not specialists, they are versatile.

A burglar could only be a burglar, but could also be a rapist, an abductor, a killer ...

A burglar could commit more serious crimes.

Dr Janosch, I read with fascination the first of the attached theses on burglary (Amelie Pedneault). Haven't had time to look at the others yet but hope to do so soon.

The first thesis does indeed demonstrate the versatility of the criminal in the case of burglary and the extent to which we could gain in our understanding of the relationship between burglary and violent or sexual offences in the criminal mind if we moved away from categorising burglary as merely a crime of property.

Personally, even though burglary is commonly referred to as a 'violation' by victims, I did not ever think of it in some of the terms that the writer discusses. Fascinating.

It seems that perhaps we have been a bit too cavalier and dismissive here about the possibility that a kidnapping could be connected, practically and psychologically, to burglary.

I am not sure how the idea of a gang of three burglars operating together fits into anything I read in the thesis (though I understand that particular study involved data from individual offenders).

Your essential point about criminal versatility, however, has been well taken.

[Sherlock Holmes]

I also wondered, Dr Janosch, whist reading the thesis, about the case of Mrs Fenn.

I have often given consideration to the fact that an intruder entered and left her property, apparently without taking anything. This report contained reference to so-called burglars who appear to leave the place untouched, or  take an object of fetishistic value for them.

We did discuss on this board some time ago the possible reasons for Mrs Fenn's intruder being in her apartment.  I put forward the idea (probably erroneous) that, if he  had anything to do with Madeleine's disappearance, perhaps he was studying the layout of Mrs Fenn's apartment in the context of the general layout of the apartment block, with a view to planning escape routes from 5A. Or some other such reason connected with an abduction.

He certainly didn't appear to be in Mrs Fenn's property for the purpose of petty theft.

I wondered if you had any thoughts on that episode and the burglaries that took place near 5A in terms of any possible relation to Madeleine's disappearance.

Thank you!

[colombosstogey]

I bet it is not.. seven years on and we are still talking about it..
Whoever's done it must be very proud..

And if all prejudice was eliminated.. then the case would be solved easily..

Maybe it was very simple... a local loner went in, took the child, abused her and killed her.. and hidden the evidence..
Maybe even not so clever person.. maybe bellow the average level of intelligence.. but the angle of looking at it was and still is wrong..

Thats why I think the simplest scenario is the easiest to work.

All this going into apartment, hiding, passing child through window, it reads like a page out of a book called How Not to Burgle for Dummies.............

Why do people burgle houses?

Its usually for desperation or just plain greed. If its desperation it could be drug related and if this person was coming down off drugs, they would have no fear just need money to get their next fix. So perhaps in that respect they could have just been so desperate they went in, got caught by a 4 year old, thought to themselves well a child will do I will get a lot of money for her, pick her up without her screaming her head off and head back out and off to the child sales............

I find it hard to believe that any burglar would risk going into an apartment at such a time that people could be about or walking about. The witching hour is 8pm to 11pm  isnt it? We used to always go out for our evening meal between 8 and 9pm depending on what we had been doing during the day.

Many apartments are empty of bodies during the day. Surely in a holiday resort the burglar would pick his timing perhaps during the day?

Going back to the child.

I personally think it is possible that someone had been talking about the children being neglected and left alone at night. I think it is perfectly possible it was in inside job someone must have had keys to the front door.
I think it is perfectly possible that this person knew the parents had gone out and went in the front door, took the child quickly and back out and away towards the old roads and lagos.

I think it is perfectly possible, but highly improbable. Just too many things to go wrong.

BUT then perhaps this person like you said Vexte just got lucky it does happen.

I dont think the person needed to be of high intelligence to carry this off. Sometimes simple is simply best......

Personally I dont think we will ever know.

I think we need to go back to the beginning, its usually the first people suspected that are the culprits......

[VIXTE]

These are Agatha Christie.. Poirot and Sherlock's types of solving a case..

Modern cases are solved using the technology!

I personally feel so frustrated with technology not working well in solving this case..

And how could they? DNA lost, no CCTV images, and it is questionable if whoever took Madeleine even had a mobile phone..
What if it is an old loner who left his phone at home, switched off?
The human factor is failing, the people who could help, the local people who live there and people who were there that night, they are all too much fed up with this case that they no longer care.

The first question that needs answering is: why Madeleine was taken? If there is no motive then there is no solution..
Why her? Why she was important? And to whom?
Or was she important or she was just unlucky to  find herself at that point and situation?
I don't think these answers are known..

[VIXTE]

Dr Janosch, I read with fascination the first of the attached theses on burglary (Amelie Pedneault). Haven't had time to look at the others yet but hope to do so soon.

The first thesis does indeed demonstrate the versatility of the criminal in the case of burglary and the extent to which we could gain in our understanding of the relationship between burglary and violent or sexual offences in the criminal mind if we moved away from categorising burglary as merely a crime of property.

Personally, even though burglary is commonly referred to as a 'violation' by victims, I did not ever think of it in some of the terms that the writer discusses. Fascinating.

It seems that perhaps we have been a bit too cavalier and dismissive here about the possibility that a kidnapping could be connected, practically and psychologically, to burglary.

I am not sure how the idea of a gang of three burglars operating together fits into anything I read in the thesis (though I understand that particular study involved data from individual offenders).

Your essential point about criminal versatility, however, has been well taken

IMO this info cannot be applied to a sleepy village in Portugal.

The social factor is more important here.. we are talking about a Mediterranean country with strong traditional and religious bonds.. Minds and motives of criminals are different in different geographical spheres.

[colombosstogey]

These are Agatha Christie.. Poirot and Sherlock's types of solving a case..

Modern cases are solved using the technology!

I personally feel so frustrated with technology not working well in solving this case..

And how could they? DNA lost, no CCTV images, and it is questionable if whoever took Madeleine even had a mobile phone..
What if it is an old loner who left his phone at home, switched off?
The human factor is failing, the people who could help, the local people who live there and people who were there that night, they are all too much fed up with this case that they no longer care.

The first question that needs answering is: why Madeleine was taken? If there is no motive then there is no solution..

Yes I agree.

I actually DISAGREE to a certain extent about technology. Its only as good as the person who is actually reading the data. The data can be misinterpreted.

Also regards DNA, unless someone has done something before their wont be DNA matches....

Why would this child be missing.

Really logically speaking only for me three reasons.

1. To cover up a death
2. Wandered out.
3. To take away for pedophilia

The last one a young chlid would usually be found within 3 hours and sadly usually dead.

The first one, well it does happen and it happens more frequently then we imagine.

The last one is dependent on someone in the area who had actually gone over the line of thinking about it to doing it, so would probably be known or would have the right profile.

The middle one, I think if the child was going to wander out she would have done on the night of the 1st May when crying for her parents.

The problem with all the media etc, it reads to me like there were more perbs out there and burglars then their were holiday makers.

WHERE WERE ALL THE HOLIDAY MAKERS?

We seem to have all of Tapas 7 and jez wilkins walking about but no one else.....

Yet Carol Tranmer in her statement said when she looked over the OC and Tapas it was busy and noisey everyone doing their own thing..

Its almost like PDL slipped into a black hole or something, and when it came out the other end the child was missing.

Almost like she never existed.

[colombosstogey]

IMO this info cannot be applied to a sleepy village in Portugal.

The social factor is more important here.. we are talking about a Mediterranean country with strong traditional and religious bonds.. Minds and motives of criminals are different in different geographical spheres.

Yes I totally agree.

PDL was the place to live with children, it was quiet, and safe. A lot of ex pats live there too, and know everyone. A stranger hanging about end of April would be noted surely.

Why would anyone running a pedophile ring choose a sleepy town like PDL to operate?

Makes no sense, if it doest make sense its usually not true.

[VIXTE]

I don't agree about the technology.. for example the mobile phone technology in solving cases is a very useful and powerful tool.. same goes for the CCTV images..  you cannot fail it.. you are there on the photo, or on the mobile phone mast and that's it.. you are caught!
Same with the DNA.. one case I remember was solved many years later when a man gave his DNA sample for something.. it was then clear his father did a crime many years ago.. caught at least!

And the technology is improving..we don't know what is going to look like in 20 years time.. but as I said, if this was someone who is not on the technology radar, no internet use, no mobile phone etc.. then by modern methods he cannot get caught..

[VIXTE]

Yes I totally agree.

PDL was the place to live with children, it was quiet, and safe. A lot of ex pats live there too, and know everyone. A stranger hanging about end of April would be noted surely.

Why would anyone running a pedophile ring choose a sleepy town like PDL to operate?

Makes no sense, if it doest make sense its usually not true.

Well, I said this many times.. my own mother comes from a place like PDL.. only there are no ex pats there, only locals.
If the crime like this happened there, in my mum's little town then the rest of the population there would know exactly who did it.. this is because in villages like this people know each other.. they know how other people breathe.. what they eat for dinner!

Now, the move of foreignes to there has brought in a kind of disharmony. First they do not know the family and the history of the new comers.. they can be  ex criminals of high sort, just buy a house there and live a low life and nobody in there would know what kind of a past they had..

What the police ( unfortunately!) need to do is check them all, one by one.. the locals, the ex pats and the holiday makers.. it is a long long call.. but I am sure a crack would appear somewhere..

[slartibartfast]

One comment...

In the thesis mentioned, we see that a lot of sex offenders started out with burglary. However it does not say how many burglars don't go on to sex offending.

[Cariad]

May I ask Heri,  just out of curiousity,  why did you take your theory to the British press   (  I'm assuming you did because the Express have directly quoted you  ) 

What did you hope to achieve ?

Just bumping this as I guessed Heri missed it and I'm curious too....

As for a gang of three people being responsible, what's that quote? something like "if you want three people to keep a secret, make sure two of them are dead"....

[Heriberto Janosch]

May I ask Heri,  just out of curiousity,  why did you take your theory to the British press   (  I'm assuming you did because the Express have directly quoted you  ) 

What did you hope to achieve ?

Sorry, icabodcrane, I had not seen this before.

I knew some jorunalists read my blog. And when the Daily Mail published about the three burglars someone in the Express remember my writings, and asked me. That is all, and now i am leaving the case till SY or PJ release new official statements. Think we must wait to know all the new info from SY and PJ.

Here is the Express printed article, note in the pic how close, in time and space, the incidents have occurred.

[Lyall]

Sorry, icabodcrane, I had not seen this before.

I knew some jorunalists read my blog. And when the Daily Mail published about the three burglars someone in the Express remember my writings, and asked me. That is all, and now i am leaving the case till SY or PJ release new official statements. Think we must wait to know all the new info from SY and PJ.

Here is the Express printed article, note in the pic how close, in time and space, the incidents have occurred.

Did he ask you for documents to prove your claim?