Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?

[VIXTE]

I really like your thinking, Vixte. That there were previous burglaries in PdL is a fact, so the chances of burglars playing a role in what happened actually has a higher probability relative to all other scenarios that have no precedents in that area whatsoever.

It is almost a Bayesian statistic, where the a priori chances of a burglary that night where pretty high, but given that chance it then going terribly wrong was pretty low. On the other hand, if we combine the small window of opportunity (due to the infrequent checking, so a high standard deviation around the 30 minute intervals) for the burglars to make their move, then the probability of being caught in the act could be high again. If for instance MO would have disturbed the burglar and make him (or her) flee into the children's bedroom thereby waking up Maddie, then the silencing could have been fatal (like in QM, poor MO would be the observer that changed reality by the act of observing). A gang of three then could explain some first (panicky) phone traffic around that time and the decision made to get rid of her body. Subsequent spikes in phone traffic would then be explained by calming down and aligning on a concocted alibi and ensuring that the weakest link wouldn't break down.

Yes, that is exactly my theory.. if the three burglars have something to do with Madeleine.

But this doesn't explain the doors being ajar and the open window.

The potential burglar in this case should have been 'IN' before Gerry was in, and after Gerry was IN..
He might have been afraid to exit.. as he had no was of knowing if anyone would enter through the patio doors.
Especially if he for example through the window saw Gerry talking to Jes.
This might be the reason he opened the window.
When MO came in, he was still there.. possibly even holding Madeleine, so she doesn't make any sound.. and this attempt of making Madeleine quiet, like pressing her mouth in panic, might have caused her death.
But as you said, this is only a theory, and only in case the SY is looking at burglars as potential lead.

We are in 2014, I think SY might be using the technology in searching for leads and probabilities.. They surely have a computer software which helps them in this area.. with all statistical graphs, and probabilities of this or that theory being closer to the truth..

[Fierljepper]

Yes, that is exactly my theory.. if the three burglars have something to do with Madeleine.

But this doesn't explain the doors being ajar and the open window.

(snip)

Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.

The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.

All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.

[jassi]

Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.

The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.

All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.

Indeed. I don't believe for one moment that these burglars are in any way responsible, but if they were around at that time, they may very well have seen what did happen.

[John]

Indeed. I don't believe for one moment that these burglars are in any way responsible, but if they were around at that time, they may very well have seen what did happen.

I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.

[jassi]

I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.

Of course the locals might say something like - 'Oh yes, we saw Manuel the neighbourhood burglar that night. We thought you meant someone suspicious'   

[stephen25000]

Of course the locals might say something like - 'Oh yes, we saw Manuel the neighbourhood burglar that night. We thought you meant someone suspicious'   

Que ?   

[VIXTE]

Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.

The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.

All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.

It would be interesting to know how many mobile phone towers are serving PDL. It would be better if there were two or even more towers but with the single tower some things can be worked out too..
In this case, the phone towers data might be their strongest facts.
If there were two towers, for example, then they can work out movements of people.. i.e. mobile phones leaving one tower and starting to catch another.
With this method they can also work out which mobile phones left the area that night. Also which mobile phones left the area and came back that night.
If they have thousand of data documents they can filter the data to different queries.
I think this method is much better re facts than half guessing theories in here.
I always said they should give the phone data to few good hackers or similar, then compare their finds..

[John]

It would be interesting to know how many mobile phone towers are serving PDL. It would be better if there were two or even more towers but with the single tower some things can be worked out too..
In this case, the phone towers data might be their strongest facts.
If there were two towers, for example, then they can work out movements of people.. i.e. mobile phones leaving one tower and starting to catch another.
With this method they can also work out which mobile phones left the area that night. Also which mobile phones left the area and came back that night.
If they have thousand of data documents they can filter the data to different queries.
I think this method is much better re facts than half guessing theories in here.
I always said they should give the phone data to few good hackers or similar, then compare their finds..

Child abductors are not in the habit of registering their mobile telephones.  I fear the significance of this mobile phone data has been horribly overrated and indeed overstated.

[VIXTE]

Child abductors are not in the habit of registering their mobile telephones.  I fear the significance of this mobile phone data has been horribly overrated and indeed overstated.

I know of several recent cases, involving children and murders,  in the UK and abroad, which I followed closely and where the phone data was the main key in finding the offenders.

For example Jessica and Holly murder:
Investigators were able to trace the last signal from Jessica's mobile phone, which she had with her at the time of her disappearance, to a small area directly near Huntley's home,
and:
The jury learned that at the time Jessica's phone switched off, the last signal sent indicated that she was in the
"immediate area" of Huntley's house, the BBC reported in their November article. Moreover, they were presented with phone records that proved that Carr was a hundred miles away in Grimsby visiting her mother at the time of the girls' disappearance, whereas Huntley was traced to the location in and around Soham. Thus, there was little if any chance that Carr was present when the girls were abducted and murdered.

[jassi]

I know of several recent cases, involving children and murders,  in the UK and abroad, which I followed closely and where the phone data was the main key in finding the offenders.

For example Jessica and Holly murder:
Investigators were able to trace the last signal from Jessica's mobile phone, which she had with her at the time of her disappearance, to a small area directly near Huntley's home,
and:
The jury learned that at the time Jessica's phone switched off, the last signal sent indicated that she was in the
"immediate area" of Huntley's house, the BBC reported in their November article. Moreover, they were presented with phone records that proved that Carr was a hundred miles away in Grimsby visiting her mother at the time of the girls' disappearance, whereas Huntley was traced to the location in and around Soham. Thus, there was little if any chance that Carr was present when the girls were abducted and murdered.

Obviously useful when the ownership of the phones can be established. Perhaps less so if the phones are anonymous.

[stephen25000]

Obviously useful when the ownership of the phones can be established. Perhaps less so if the phones are anonymous.

and of course false I.D.'s.

[colombosstogey]

I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.

Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.

Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)

PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...

[Redblossom]

Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.

Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)

PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...

There were a few during the hours, residents, diners and employees of the Tapas restaurant and bar...none of them saw anyone "suspicious" that night

[colombosstogey]

There were a few during the hours, residents, diners and employees of the Tapas restaurant and bar...none of them saw anyone "suspicious" that night

correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.

The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered.

However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.

[Redblossom]

correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.

The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered.

However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.

That makes sense....