Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?

[VIXTE]

What burglaries?!!!!

There were no burglaries (or home invasions) reported in Praia da Luz in 2007.

I would love to know how the British Press check their sources.

Even Amaral in his book mentions these burglaries!

[Luz]

Even Amaral in his book mentions these burglaries!

Maybe in your private edition.

[stephen25000]

Even Amaral in his book mentions these burglaries!

So you equate burglary with abduction.

Interesting.

[pegasus]

Its an actress, it was a dramatisation, it means little in its minutae....tanner had blonde hair in it...it easnt a iteral reconstruction or literal and definitive in every way

IMO the scene in Mr Amarals film (where the actress climbs up, stands on the back of the sofa, and leans forward across the gap to reach the lounge window) is a useful visual aid for assessing the potential risk, in a relaxed state (as filmed), and alternatively in a non-relaxed state (not filmed).

[VIXTE]

So you equate burglary with abduction.

Interesting.

No, I don't. I never said that.
But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..

Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if :
1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine
2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars
3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence

[Redblossom]

Deleted

[stephen25000]

No, I don't. I never said that.
But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..

Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if :
1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine
2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars
3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence

Then of course that's assuming there was a burglary....

[VIXTE]

Then of course that's assuming there was a burglary....

True. I agree.
But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..

On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..

I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..

This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..

[Redblossom]

True. I agree.
But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..

On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..

I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..

This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..

LOL youre funny, give you that

As for burglaries, the PJ checked all this way back seven years ago.....nothing to be seen here, as you were.....

leave you to your shenanigans now....bye for now

[Lyall]

True. I agree.
But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..

On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..

I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..

This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..

Bit of a flaw in your reasoning there - in your example it may now just be one theory, but it's still a theory.

Theories aren't good enough for the police, because they don't advance one inch from the AG in 2008 if it's just theoretical.

[Fierljepper]

True. I agree.
But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..

On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..

I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..

This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..

And that unified string theory happened to be named M-theory and even its inventor mr Witten doesn't want to reveal what the M stands for. It must therefore refer to Maddie... or McCann... 

[Fierljepper]

Bit of a flaw in your reasoning there - in your example it may now just be one theory, but it's still a theory.

Theories aren't good enough for the police, because they don't advance one inch from the AG in 2008 if it's just theoretical.

Unless a theory that connects all the dots allows you to make a new prediction that can be verified. String theory therefore is not a good analogy, since it doesn't make any predications (until now) that can be experimentally verified.

However, this must be how SY approach the case. They look at the all the facts and try to connect them in a possible scenario and then try to make new predictions/hypothesis that can be verified or falsified. As an example the latest scenario could be that Maddie was taken after a burglary going terribly wrong. That scenario could have as a symptom that the burglars panicked after that happened and therefore would cause a spike in phone traffic around the time of the crime. Then the next step is to bring in those suspects and either arrest/convict them because they confess or they prove to be innocent and can be ruled out.

[Lyall]

Unless a theory that connects all the dots allows you to make a new prediction that can be verified. String theory therefore is not a good analogy, since it doesn't make any predications (until now) that can be experimentally verified.

However, this must be how SY approach the case. They look at the all the facts and try to connect them in a possible scenario and then try to make new predictions/hypothesis that can be verified or falsified. As an example the latest scenario could be that Maddie was taken after a burglary going terribly wrong. That scenario could have as a symptom that the burglars panicked after that happened and therefore would cause a spike in phone traffic around the time of the crime. Then the next step is to bring in those suspects and either arrest/convict them because they confess or they prove to be innocent and can be ruled out.

Hoping they get identifications is probably one big aim, judging by past investigations.

But that would be messy after so many years. We'll see what transpires.

[Fierljepper]

No, I don't. I never said that.
But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..

Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if :
1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine
2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars
3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence

I really like your thinking, Vixte. That there were previous burglaries in PdL is a fact, so the chances of burglars playing a role in what happened actually has a higher probability relative to all other scenarios that have no precedents in that area whatsoever.

It is almost a Bayesian statistic, where the a-priori chances of a burglary that night were pretty high, but given that chance, the probability of the burglary then going terribly wrong was pretty low. On the other hand, if we combine the small window of opportunity (due to the infrequent checking, so a high standard deviation around the 30 minute intervals) for the burglars to make their move, then the probability of being caught in the act could be high again. If for instance MO would have disturbed the burglar and make him (or her) flee into the children's bedroom thereby waking up Maddie, then the silencing could have been fatal (like in QM, poor MO would be the observer that changed reality by the act of observing). A gang of three then could explain some first (panicky) phone traffic around that time and the decision made to get rid of her body. Subsequent spikes in phone traffic would then be explained by calming down and aligning on a concocted alibi and ensuring that the weakest link wouldn't break down.

[VIXTE]

And that unified string theory happened to be named M-theory and even its inventor mr Witten doesn't want to reveal what the M stands for. It must therefore refer to Maddie... or McCann... 

OH I know it is called M-theory but never associated it with Madeleine