Are Victim Detection and Forensic Evidence Search Dogs reliable?

[icabodcrane]

Absolutely no-one here has denied that a cadaver dog alerted in Apartment 5A.

And no-one to the best of my knowledge has rejected it as the possible basis for the comment by SY.

The guesswork and lack of logic is on your part and that of others who have tried to make out that it is "the logical basis fo that comment". It is not. It is one of many logical possible bases.

No-one except those privy to the workings of Operation Grange knows which of those logical possibilities it actually is.

That you claim that the only logical possibility is that the dog alerts have led to this comment when SY have been fully aware of the dog alerts since the beginning of the review many years ago is rather bizarre.

That you offer no explanation why such old information should have suddenly prompted such a comment is bizarre.

That you deny other such possibilities exist is bizarre.

That you pretend that it is desperate to be open-minded and to realise that we are not in posession of the facts is also bizarre.

The desperation is in the attempt to deny the existence of other possible reasons for the comment and to pretend to understand something which without inside knowledge you cannot understand.

You think it is  logical to dismiss what you  do  know,  in order to allow for that which you do  not  ?

Logic doesn't work like that

Scotland Yard know that a cadaver dog alerted in apartment 5A,  and, whilst the child remains missing,  they know the alert is suggestive that she died there

That's what they have 

...  and it's substancial

[gilet]

You think it is  logical to dismiss what you  do  know,  in order to allow for that which you do  not  ?

Logic doesn't work like that

Scotland Yard know that a cadaver dog alerted in apartment 5A,  and, whilst the child remains missing,  they know the alert is suggestive that she died there

That's what they have 

...  and it's substancial

I am afraid your understanding of logic is not that hot.

Logically there are many possibilities. Until they are shown not to be logical possibilities they remain valid.

What is entirely illogical about your position is that you believe it credible that having known about the dogs for four years only now have they made the connection and understood that Madeleine could have died in Apartment 5A based on that knowledge. An utterly incredible position entirely lacking in logic or even common sense.

[sadie]

No,  I'm not  'guessing'  at all

I  ...  and you ...  and everyone else here,  knows  that Scotland Yard are aware a cadaver dog alerted in apartment 5A

The  'guessing'  is on the part of those who reject that is  the logical basis for Scotland Yard having said they think Madeleine may have died in the apartment,   and  'imagine'  there must be some other  ( unknown )  reason

I'm not guessing  ...   you  are    ( and there is a whiff of desperation about it  )

Why dont you face it, Icabod.  THe cadavar dog Eddie also alerts to blood and other things.  We KNOW that the dogs were not bought in for weeks and that two lots of tenants in 5A lost blood during that period.  The man with the shaving accident especailly walked around bleeding for quite a while, IIRC

How do You know what Eddie was alerting to?  Blood or Cadaver odour? .... or ..... ?

[gilet]

Why dont you face it, Icabod.  THe cadavar dog Eddie also alerts to blood and other things.  We KNOW that the dogs were not bought in for weeks and that two lots of tenants in 5A lost blood during that period.  The man with the shaving accident especailly walked around bleeding for quite a while, IIRC

How do You know what Eddie was alerting to?  Blood or Cadaver odour? .... or ..... ?

One thing that people seem to forget is something rather significant that Martin Grime said on video. He made an attempt to explain that air in an apartment swirls about and scents do not remain in fixed positions. He suggested that the scent could have been alerted to at a position other than that of the actual cadaver or blood.

Nobody can be certain that Eddie did not alert to the blood.

Martin Grime with all his experience of handling the dogs could not be certain there was any cadaver odour in the apartment so it is categorically not possible for anyone on a forum to be certain.

[icabodcrane]

I am afraid your understanding of logic is not that hot.

Logically there are many possibilities. Until they are shown not to be logical possibilities they remain valid.

What is entirely illogical about your position is that you believe it credible that having known about the dogs for four years only now have they made the connection and understood that Madeleine could have died in Apartment 5A based on that knowledge. An utterly incredible position entirely lacking in logic or even common sense.

Well what  are  the possibilities then ?

We know that Scotland Yard are aware that a cadaver dog alerted in apartment 5A,  and we know Scotland Yard are aware that,  whilst the child remains missing,  the alert might be suggestive of the child having died there

We  know   that

So,  with regard to these  'many other possibilities'   that you speak of  ...  the ones that you  suggest might be behind Scotland Yard having come to the conclusion they have  (  that Madeleine might have died in the apartment   )  ...  what are they ?

Throw them out there

It's guesswork of course  (  anything other  than the cadaver dog intelligence being the basis for Scotland Yard believing what they do,  is guesswork  ) 

Go ahead though ...   give us some examples of what you  'guess'  is the basis for Scotland Yard thinking Madeleine may have died in apartment 5A 

[John]

Is that an accusation, John?

It's a statement.  Martin Grime will have his own opinion as to what exactly Eddie alerted to.

Isn't it just a tad coincidental that Martin Grimes EVRD alerted to the possibility of a death in apartment 5a and now we have Redwood for the very first time admitting that Madeleine might have died in that very apartment.

[sadie]

It's a statement.  Martin Grime will have his own opinion as to what exactly Eddie alerted to.

Isn't it just a tad coincidental that Martin Grimes EVRD alerted to the possibility of a death in apartment 5a and now we have Redwood for the very first time admitting that Madeleine might have died in that very apartment.

Are you suggesting that SY have only just caught on to the idea that Martin Grimes EVRD alerted to anything?
I dont think that delay is likely, John.
Personally I think we can rule that out.


More likely something else has been descovered that makes them wonder.  OMO of course.

[gilet]

Well what  are  the possibilities then ?

We know that Scotland Yard are aware that a cadaver dog alerted in apartment 5A,  and we know Scotland Yard are aware that,  whilst the child remains missing,  the alert might be suggestive of the child having died there

We  know   that

So,  with regard to these  'many other possibilities'   that you speak of  ...  the ones that you  suggest might be behind Scotland Yard having come to the conclusion they have  (  that Madeleine might have died in the apartment   )  ...  what are they ?

Throw them out there

It's guesswork of course  (  anything other  than the cadaver dog intelligence being the basis for Scotland Yard believing what they do,  is guesswork  ) 

Go ahead though ...   give us some examples of what you  'guess'  is the basis for Scotland Yard thinking Madeleine may have died in apartment 5A

Ah, now you are asking me to guess what these possibilities are. As I have no idea what SY are currently working on I have no idea about specifics and am not prepared to make any such guesses. But I will outline what I do know for certain. I have no intention of guessing anything.

Purely based on logic and my reading about the case, other possibilities do (and these are not speculative) include witness interviews being undertaken, discussion with the PJ which is being undertaken currently, reviewing of modus operandi of suspects which we know is being currently undertaken etc.).

All these are equally logical bases upon which SY could have made a breakthrough which may have led to that comment. Indeed as we know that these are current lines of inquiry as opposed to the dogs which have been researched for years by SY as part of the review, I would argue that they are more likely bases for such a comment now being made.

To assume as you have done that it could only have been related to the dog alerts is both illogical and flies in the face of common sense.  It is you who is guilty of guesswork by guessing without a shred of evidence that the dog alerts are the reason for the new statement.

It is clear that there are other logical lines of inquiry which could have led to that statement. It is pure desperation on your part and that of others who have denied such possibilities to have done so.

[gilet]

It's a statement.  Martin Grime will have his own opinion as to what exactly Eddie alerted to.

Isn't it just a tad coincidental that Martin Grimes EVRD alerted to the possibility of a death in apartment 5a and now we have Redwood for the very first time admitting that Madeleine might have died in that very apartment.

Stretching it a bit to call it a coincidence when he has known about the dog alerts for four years and only now has managed to make the link.

See my post above for other equally (possibly more likely even considering how old the dog information is) possible reasons for the new statement.

Inferring that it has to be related to the dogs is simply guesswork based on flawed logic. It is possibly true but most certainly not the only option and not even, in my opinion, the most likely option.

[John]

Why dont you face it, Icabod.  THe cadavar dog Eddie also alerts to blood and other things.  We KNOW that the dogs were not bought in for weeks and that two lots of tenants in 5A lost blood during that period.  The man with the shaving accident especailly walked around bleeding for quite a while, IIRC

How do You know what Eddie was alerting to?  Blood or Cadaver odour? .... or ..... ?

Have you failed to grasp the significance too Sadie?  Eddie alerts, Keela doesn't is suggestive of a cadaver and NOT blood.  Dear oh dear!!  Back to basics again...   

[gilet]

Have you failed to grasp the significance too Sadie?  Eddie alerts, Keela doesn't is suggestive of a cadaver and NOT blood.  Dear oh dear!!  Back to basics again

I think Sadie understands it perfectly well.

Both dogs alerted in the apartment.

It was Grime himself on video who made it abundantly clear that an alert in a particular location does not necessarily mean that the source of the scent remains in that location. He commented that the scent in the apartment was particularly difficult and could collect in one location (I believe he was referring to the alert by Eddie at the time near the wardrobe but have not yet located the comment. When I find it I will post it.)

It is not possible (and this would be argued in any court) in light of what Grime said about scent not being tied to a particular location) to determine with 100% certainty that the alerts were to cadaver scent.

Even Grime cannot say this with certainty that they are, as he makes abundantly clear in his report.

[sadie]

deleted

[icabodcrane]

Ah, now you are asking me to guess what these possibilities are. As I have no idea what SY are currently working on I have no idea about specifics and am not prepared to make any such guesses. But I will outline what I do know for certain. I have no intention of guessing anything.

Purely based on logic and my reading about the case, other possibilities do (and these are not speculative) include witness interviews being undertaken, discussion with the PJ which is being undertaken currently, reviewing of modus operandi of suspects which we know is being currently undertaken etc.).

All these are equally logical bases upon which SY could have made a breakthrough which may have led to that comment. Indeed as we know that these are current lines of inquiry as opposed to the dogs which have been researched for years by SY as part of the review, I would argue that they are more likely bases for such a comment now being made.

To assume as you have done that it could only have been related to the dog alerts is both illogical and flies in the face of common sense.  It is you who is guilty of guesswork by guessing without a shred of evidence that the dog alerts are the reason for the new statement.

It is clear that there are other logical lines of inquiry which could have led to that statement. It is pure desperation on your part and that of others who have denied such possibilities to have done so.

Well,  I know why  I  think Scotland Yard believe Madeleine may have died in apartment  5A  ...  because a cadaver dog alerted there 

You,  on the other hand,  are floundering for some imagined and unsubstanciated  'other'  reason

...  aren't you   ? 

[sadie]

Well,  I know why  I  think Scotland Yard believe Madeleine may have died in apartment  5A  ...  because a cadaver dog alerted there 

You,  on the other hand,  are floundering for some imagined and unsubstanciated  'other'  reason

...  aren't you   ?

Bit late aren't they?

Dont think they would be, tbh.

And the alert was not substantiated as it should have been.  I am sure you can remember that Icabod.

[gilet]

Well,  I know why  I  think Scotland Yard believe Madeleine may have died in apartment  5A  ...  because a cadaver dog alerted there 

You,  on the other hand,  are floundering for some imagined and unsubstanciated  'other'  reason

...  aren't you   ?

No. Unlike you I am not seeking to determine a reason at all because I realise that attempting to do so is utterly futile as we do not have sufficient information on which to make that determination.

And unlike you I am also not deluding myself that other potential reasons exist. Some of those reasons being much more likely due to the fact that it would be bizarre if the Operation Grange team had only just managed to make the connection with the dogs who they have known about for a full four years.

I am not trying to substantiate anything. I am open to all possibilities and I am simply indicating that to exclude other possibilities that clearly do exist is pointless. I am not prepared to make a guess as to which is the actual reason.

I believe I have demonstrated that it is you who is illogically excluding other possible reasons and who having illogically excluded all other possibilities has resorted to guessing what Scotland Yard has based their comment on.