Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[Benice]

FGS, you still haven't realised that Gonçalo Amaral did not lead the investigation? It's not an opinion, it is a fact. Coordinators don't do detective work.

So what does he mean when he says this in his book:-

In Portinmao, I meet chief inspector Tavares de Almeida, a member of the team I directed. 
End quote

Surely his 'team' consisted of the police officers who were investigating the case.  It seems clear enough that they were all his subordinates and their investigations into the case were being directed by him.

His book doesn't give the slightest hint to his readers that he didn't do any of the detective work in this case.  In fact quite the opposite impression is given.

[ferryman]

Penultimate sentence and paragraph of Harrison's third and final report:

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).

[edited]

[ferryman]

After a week of intense work, Harrison presents the results of his study to my coordinating group. Even if we were expecting it, his conclusions confirm our worst fears. The most plausible scenario is the following: there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead, and her body is hidden somewhere in the area around Praia da Luz. He praises the quality of the work carried out by the Portuguese authorities in trying to find the little girl alive. According to him, the time has come to redirect the searches in order to find, this time, a body hidden in the surrounding area.

Goncalo Amaral ...

[Brietta]

It is an absolute misrepresentation of a professional’s opinion and designed to bolster his theory and sell his book.   

Since his theory is that Madeleine’s parents had covered up her death it is also a calumny directed at them. 

I am afraid it is the measure of the man.

[pegasus]

It is an absolute misrepresentation of a professional’s opinion and designed to bolster his theory and sell his book.   

Since his theory is that Madeleine’s parents had covered up her death it is also a calumny directed at them. 

I am afraid it is the measure of the man.

But the fact remains, that it was a top expert of the UK's NPIA who recommended bringing in a cadaver dog.

[Martina]

Although unusual, a body is not a pre requisite to securing a murder conviction in the courts.

The fact that Dr Amaral's theory could not be substantiated by enough evidence to lay charges is proof that his theory was fatally flawed.

No. It just means that they did not have enough evidence. Many cold cases prove your claim wrong. For instance a case of Maria Ridulph, kidnapped from her home in 1957, her decomposing remaind found the next yoear. The police had their suspect pintpinted from the get go. Unfortunately the dude, provided the alibi that was backed up by the witnesses. There was not enough evidence to bring the case to court, it got shelved for years. It was reopened in 2011, the new evidence was found after the exhumation of Maria's body and the new witnesses stepped in, including a woman, who was Tessier's girlfriend in 1957. She helped to demolish his alibi. And voila, the man who was the suspect number one from the very beginning got sentenced for this murder. So it seems the police theory was not flawed in spite of the lacking evidence.

[Alfred R Jones]

No. It just means that they did not have enough evidence. Many cold cases prove your claim wrong. For instance a case of Maria Ridulph, kidnapped from her home in 1957, her decomposing remaind found the next yoear. The police had their suspect pintpinted from the get go. Unfortunately the dude, provided the alibi that was backed up by the witnesses. There was not enough evidence to bring the case to court, it got shelved for years. It was reopened in 2011, the new evidence was found after the exhumation of Maria's body and the new witnesses stepped in, including a woman, who was Tessier's girlfriend in 1957. She helped to demolish his alibi. And voila, the man who was the suspect number one from the very beginning got sentenced for this murder. So it seems the police theory was not flawed in spite of the lacking evidence.

Hmm.  Interesting case, there is some serious doubt about the safety of the conviction - in fact as with the Madeleine McCann case there were no clues left when the abductor struck.

Also interestingly there was no agreement regarding the timeline - does this sound familiar and does it confer suspicion on those with the conflicting stories?

"Already, there were conflicting reports about the exact time of Maria's disappearance. Was she snatched closer to 6 p.m.? Or did it happen later, at about 7? Police and FBI reports, as well as news accounts from the time, contain details that support both scenarios.

Sycamore's police chief, William Hindenburg, told FBI agents that Kathy and Maria went out to play at 6:02 p.m., but the DeKalb County sheriff said Maria didn't call Kathy and ask her to come out and play until 6:30. Maria's mother later altered her original estimate, saying the girls could have been outside as early as 10 minutes to 6".

[Albertini]

Although unusual, a body is not a pre requisite to securing a murder conviction in the courts.

The fact that Dr Amaral's theory could not be substantiated by enough evidence to lay charges is proof that his theory was fatally flawed.

The fact that what could be called a cold case review in Britain by the Met and a cold case review in Portugal by the PJ revealed sufficient evidence for Madeleine's case to be reopened proves how wrong Dr Amaral's theory was and is.

On the evidence, most of which was available to the original investigation led by Dr Amaral, both the PJ and the Met are following lines of inquiry the original investigation ignored

How is it proof when the investigation was INCOMPLETE at the point of it being shelved?

What adds weight to the  thesis of parental involvement is the fact the parents and their friends were the ones whose actions were the reason the investigation was incomplete when it was shelved.

It can credibly suggested that one theory is that the PJ were getting too close for comfort.

Now you and your fellow supporters will not agree with that but whether you like it or not that is a valid conclusion to draw from their actions in refusing to provide the PJ with information given they were the last people to see the child alive and well.

[Mr Gray]

How is it proof when the investigation was INCOMPLETE at the point of it being shelved?

What adds weight to the  thesis of parental involvement is the fact the parents and their friends were the ones whose actions were the reason the investigation was incomplete when it was shelved.

It can credibly suggested that one henry is that the PJ were getting too close for comfort.

Now you and your fellow supporters will not agree with that but whether you like it or not that is a valid conclusion to draw from their actions in refusing to provide the PJ with information given they were the last people to see the child alive and well.

no its not a valid conclusion

[Albertini]

no its not a valid conclusion

Yes it is.

[Albertini]

no it isnt

Your rapier like and incisive counter argument and factually based rebuttal is impossible to compete with.

Or not.

[Albertini]

yes it is

You've proved my point. Thank you.

[Albertini]

I don't have to tell myself anything.  Kate and Gerry will be in Court tomorrow giving impact statements.

Unless.......wait for it........Gonc comes up with another excuse.  I am not entirely discarding that possibility.

will they be backing up what their other witnesses said?

You know that the Arguido status didn't really bother them at all as reported by Susan Hubbard Alan pike and Michael wright which is completely contradicted by the pairs previous on record statements?

I wish them good luck in trying to square that circle.

[Victoria]

Amaral's 'thesis' now appears to include the child's body being stuffed between the feet of a dead woman who was cremated a month after the disappearance. The bloke really has totally lost it. 

[stephen25000]

Amaral's 'thesis' now appears to include the child's body being stuffed between the feet of a dead woman who was cremated a month after the disappearance. The bloke really has totally lost it. 

Where did you see this ?