Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[pegasus]

It doesn't cover the minimum 90 minutes does it? Only 45 minutes at the most?

Well IMO the required period is about 2.5 hours for consistent detection.

[pathfinder73]

Well IMO the required period is about 2.5 hours for consistent detection.

That takes you back to the kids first routine change of the week.

[Brietta]

I don't think there is evidence to suggest Amaral and the Portuguese police did not 'follow evidence'    ...  there  was  no evidence of abduction that they  could  'follow'  ...  was there  ? 

There is certainly evidence that many  'sightings'   all over the world were followed up   (  sightings that were  relentlessly generated by the McCann's  'awareness campaign  )   That element of the investigation must have been a huge distraction and taken up a great deal of police time

Unfortunately there is provenance that evidence was not followed through or in many cases ignored. 

For example, the infamous CCTV which may or may not have picked up the man seen by the Smith family. 

The cigarette butts reported to the police in the stairwell which overlooked apartment 5a which were not collected for forensic examination. 

I’m not altogether sure that the alleged sightings did take up a great deal of police time, and I know that many were not followed up.
   
The Drs McCann lawyers were given files in 2010 which had been marked as ‘not relevant to the investigation’. 

These contained photographs and videos of children which had been filed but never shown to the Drs McCann.

[Alfred R Jones]

Unfortunately there is provenance that evidence was not followed through or in many cases ignored. 

For example, the infamous CCTV which may or may not have picked up the man seen by the Smith family. 

The cigarette butts reported to the police in the stairwell which overlooked apartment 5a which were not collected for forensic examination. 

I’m not altogether sure that the alleged sightings did take up a great deal of police time, and I know that many were not followed up.
   
The Drs McCann lawyers were given files in 2010 which had been marked as ‘not relevant to the investigation’. 

These contained photographs and videos of children which had been filed but never shown to the Drs McCann.

Also deemed irrelevant to the investigation by Amaral was a sighting of a couple with a young child at Lagos Marina on the early morning of May 4th.

[pegasus]

That takes you back to the kids first routine change of the week.

Just IMO, no, all was well up to after the last reported visual live sighting at about 9.05ish.

[pegasus]

The Drs McCann lawyers were given files in 2010 which had been marked as ‘not relevant to the investigation’. 
These contained photographs and videos of children which had been filed but never shown to the Drs McCann.

... who likewise agreed that the photos/videos were not of their clients' disappeared child and were not relevant.

[pathfinder73]

Just IMO, no, all was well up to after the last reported visual live sighting at about 9.05ish.

Would you investigate a routine change in a missing child case or believe the parents?

[Brietta]

... who likewise agreed that the photos/videos were not of their clients' disappeared child and were not relevant.

Whether or not there was anything of relevance was not tested when it should have been. 
Dr Amaral's theory that Madeleine was dead allowed Mr Paiva to neglect his duty which was to continue investigating Madeleine McCann's disappearance.

Quote - Mr Paiva gave evidence at a legal hearing over a controversial book, written by his former boss, Goncalo Amaral.

He admitted that Mr Amaral's insistence that Madeleine died on May 3, 2007, meant the police investigation had failed to consider other options.

Mrs Duarte said they had not investigated any tip-offs since the case was officially shelved, in July 2008, when the McCanns were cleared as official suspects in the investigation.

She said information had continued to pour in from potential witnesses and even from other police forces in Europe, but was ignored, even when the clues including photographs of girls who looked like Madeleine.

The lawyer said: 'Some of them are very, very similar to Madeleine. But Kate and Gerry had never been shown them.

'There was information from Leicestershire Police, French police, Spanish police, and again nothing was done about it. - end Quote

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250419/Portuguese-police-ignored-hundreds-sightings-search-Madeleine-McCann.html

[pegasus]

Would you investigate a routine change in a missing child case or believe the parents?

Agreed routine changes are interesting (I assume you mean not going for evening playground visit near tapas) however the main points of interest IMO are the time the missing person was last seen ok, and the time the physical transition was made from the apartment/garden to some other location. The account of the 9.05ish check is likely IMO to be true (that's not automatically believing anyone, its worked out IMO scientifically) which IMO pins one of those two times.

[Wonderfulspam]

... who likewise agreed that the photos/videos were not of their clients' disappeared child and were not relevant.

Mr McCann appears to find something amusing about people saying they are definite they had seen Madeleine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=AZcfFTOti-s#t=13

[pegasus]

In the files there are probably only 3 sightings within PDL (the JT sighting the Smith sighting and the golfbag sighting, all on the relevant night and in the relevant town) and there are many hundreds of sightings elsewhere all around the world, covering every continent except maybe Antarctica.
If the PJ had assigned equal time to each sighting, their investigation would have been 99% outside PDL, roving the entire world, and less than 1% within PDL.

[pathfinder73]

Agreed routine changes are interesting (I assume you mean not going for evening playground visit near tapas) however the main points of interest IMO are the time the missing person was last seen ok, and the time the physical transition was made from the apartment/garden to some other location. The account of the 9.05ish check is likely IMO to be true (that's not automatically believing anyone, its worked out IMO scientifically) which IMO pins one of those two times.

The routine change period is indeed very interesting with the many contradictions in testimonies, incriminating allegations and cadaver alerts then it must be properly investigated. The 9:05 check is interesting for being both the first visual check of the week and the last time Madeleine is seen. I would think any routine changes would be at the top of any anomaly list to be investigated. Maybe it's been put to the bottom of this list  >@@(*&)

[pegasus]

The routine change period is indeed very interesting with the many contradictions in testimonies, incriminating allegations and cadaver alerts then it must be properly investigated. The 9:05 check is interesting for being both the first visual check of the week and the last time Madeleine is seen. I would think any routine changes would be at the top of any anomaly list to be investigated. Maybe it's been put to the bottom of this list  >@@(*&)

Changes of routine can be found IMO already from the first Sunday (29th).

IMO Mr Amaral's main theory has the location and status of the child at the time of the approx 9.05 check as follows :
Location: north bedroom.
Status: alive and well.

Although I don't agree with every part Mr Amaral's theory, and I work it out independently, I also think
Location: north bedroom.
Status: alive and well.

What is your opinion re approx 9.05pm?
Location: ?
Status:?

[drummer]

GA: … in an advanced state of decomposition, at least it’s a hypothesis. Therefore it’s a question of a deep freezer, or something similar, and there we had to search for it and that was what we were doing. This means, the contacts that they had, where they went, where they were seen… There are people who say that they were seen entering an apartment block near the cemetery in Praia da Luz. At that point in time we weren’t able to detect which apartment they entered, who lived there, because it’s also a bit complicated because you have to understand it’s a tourist area and often it’s not known who the apartment belongs to.

JP: Of course, of course…

GA: Who lives there, for how long they live there, so all of that was being worked upon. To try to understand the support…

JP: If someone discovered a deep freezer in the area and…

GA: If it was actually a deep freezer, it doesn’t exist anymore now.




Credible, my bottom.

[Brietta]

In the files there are probably only 3 sightings within PDL (the JT sighting the Smith sighting and the golfbag sighting, all on the relevant night and in the relevant town) and there are many hundreds of sightings elsewhere all around the world, covering every continent except maybe Antarctica.
If the PJ had assigned equal time to each sighting, their investigation would have been 99% outside PDL, roving the entire world, and less than 1% within PDL.

I think it is important to establish that the ‘golf bag sighting’ does not appear to be substantiated in the files and appears to be a bone of contention between two friends.


Quote - Walley is currently at her address in Portugal and is unaware that Grainger has called in with this information. Grainger thinks Walley will fall out with her if or when the police make contact with her over this.
Grainger is more than willing to speak with you if you wish to contact her. – end Quote
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/ASSORTED_SIGHTINGS_14.htm


Service Information
Date: 2008-05-02
To: The Head of the Criminal Investigation
From: Inspector Joao Carlos
Subject: Supposed sighting
According to the results of the previous information, received by email we can infer that this was a third party intervention, in other words, the person who reported the sighting was not the person who saw it. Patricia Grainger alleged that her friend Rosemary Walley who lives in Portugal, concretely in Praia da Luz at about 8 -10 minutes from the apartment Madeleine disappeared from. According to Grainger, her friend Walley, on the night of the disappearance or on the following morning, she does not make this clear, when she was in her garden, supposedly facing the room, she saw a man wearing a sports jacket carrying a rucksack/bag. He was accompanied by a Portuguese woman (it is not clear how she deduced the nationality). The couple got into a mini van and left the scene.
The information is laconical, imprecise and quite vague, there is no reference to the British child or to any other child. Once we got hold of Rosemary Walley's telephone number and when we spoke to her and told her the reason for our phone call she was speechless. She said that she did not know anything about the disappearance nor about the sighting, saying that the information provided by her friend was fictitious or a misunderstanding. She added that she had told her friend that on the night of the disappearance she saw a man and a woman, the former was carrying a golf bag on his shoulder and that she said this bag, in jocular terms and out of pure derision be linked to the missing girl. That it was a joke made in bad taste as she did not see anything that could conclude or infer this sense, it was a normal couple, nothing more.
With no more to report
Inspector Joao Carlos
Pages 2969 - 2970 are in English:
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/ASSORTED_SIGHTINGS_14.htm