Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[Carana]

Back to the OP: is Amaral's "thesis" credible or not?

What exactly is it? It seems to vary depending on whether it is what he states in his book, his film or his numerous interviews.

Once that is sorted (if ever):
- what exactly makes it "credible"?
- what evidence actually supports whatever his hypothesis actually is?
- what evidence is there that supports the idea that he is a lone "truthseeker" thwarted by powers beyond him?

[Mr Gray]

Back to the OP: is Amaral's "thesis" credible or not?

What exactly is it? It seems to vary depending on whether it is what he states in his book, his film or his numerous interviews.

Once that is sorted (if ever):
- what exactly makes it "credible"?
- what evidence actually supports whatever his hypothesis actually is?
- what evidence is there that supports the idea that he is a lone "truthseeker" thwarted by powers beyond him?

The fact that the archiving report said that there was no evidence to link the McCanns with any crime means that amaral has nothing of value to support his thesis .....the fact that the new investigation does not consider the parents suspects reinforces this

[Mr Gray]

Amaral should never have been on the case as John pointed out yesterday ... he was an arguido ...in the uk he would have been suspended

[icabodcrane]

We have been told by the archiving report that the so called evidence that placed the mccanns under suspicion was seriously flawed...

I don't think we can compare the actions of the PJ investigation led by amaral to Sy investigation led by redwood.

What we do know is that amaral is a convicted liar wheras Redwood is quite truthful

Chief Inspector Olegario Sousa made a public statement that the McCanns were not being treated as suspects even though it was blatently not true

I think he did that to keep a lid on the already explosive media situation

It is quite possible that Scotland have taken a similar approach,  knowing full well the importance of restraining media hysteria

...  especially in this case,  where a feeding frenzy will ensue at the first whiff of sharkbait

[Mr Gray]

Chief Inspector Olegario Sousa made a public statement that the McCanns were not being treated as suspects even though it was blatently not true

I think he did that to keep a lid on the already explosive media situation

It is quite possible that Scotland have taken a similar approach,  knowing full well the importance of restraining media hysteria

...  especially in this case,  where a feeding frenzy will ensue at the first whiff of sharkbait

I think it is a ridiculous assumption

[pegasus]

IMO his theory is good on some points, and wrong on many other points.
Just one example of each, strictly just IMO of course, based on the theory as presented in the Verdade film
Correct about mode and approximate time of exiting north bedroom.
Incorrect about mode and time of exiting apartment.

[pegasus]

My comments on a recent interview with Gonçalo Amaral
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=2784.msg159868#msg159868

"There was no assault in that house"
Correct. And no intruder ever entered.

"'fake and staged' referring to the current theory being pursued by the British police"
The UK investigation is not staged, it genuinely intends to solve the case, but like Mr Amaral's, has some illogical assumptions.
"the idea of ​​there being a 'thief who was frightened by the child' is a scenario created solely for the media".
Incorrect. Here both Mr Amaral and Mr Redwood have not realised that a burglar opening the window to enter would disturb the child and simultaneously the child would disturb the burglar and therefore he would never get as far as climbing in, and is not the person who removes anything..

"...there wasn't missing a TV, a camera or money ..."
Correct. (Although if there had been no-one home, those items would be gone, simple insurance claims)

"... It is a ploy to make us forget what exists."
No. It is a situation where neither Mr A nor Mr R have worked through what would happen if someone opened the window and what sequence would obviously follow and how that might lead to increased risk.
 
As usual, I might be wrong.

[Benice]

From Amaral's book.

The idea of a robbery gone wrong is not to be ruled out either. During the holidays, burglaries are not rare, and the police are not always informed, because hotels avoid spreading this kind of information. Even if the examination of apartment 5A reveals no trace of a break-in - contrary to what the parents insist and that Sky announced - we have to take stock of the petty crimes committed in the seaside resort and at the tourist complex.
End quote

[pegasus]

Thanks Benice, that's good, so Mr Amaral did at least consider the possibility of interrupted burglary. I would like to sit for several hours at a pavement cafe with Mr R and Mr A (and some good portuguese food and beer of course) and ask them together to answer the simple question: if a burglar opened that window and shutter from outside, what would obviously happen next, step by step.

[Truth]

The abduction story is full of holes.

Experienced detectives can tell.

They probably didn't take it seriously at all.

[VIXTE]

The abduction story is full of holes.

Experienced detectives can tell.

They probably didn't take it seriously at all.

In past 7 years we had numerous experienced detectives speaking in the media and saying opposite.
Why should we trust only one detective who BTW has a criminal record?

[Montclair]

Why do you continue to say that is was Gonçalo Amaral's thesis? The investigation was not carried out by one lone inspector and furthermore, it was done under the supervision of the judges from the Ministério Público, as is the procedure in all criminal investigations in Portugal. The conclusions in the report of 10 September 2007 were the conclusions of an investigation carried out by the Portuguese and British police at the time, not those of some "rogue" cop, as many of you like to think.

As GA pointed out in his book, the possibility of a burglary gone wrong was also considered and not thought to be valid.

[Carana]

Why do you continue to say that is was Gonçalo Amaral's thesis? The investigation was not carried out by one lone inspector and furthermore, it was done under the supervision of the judges from the Ministério Público, as is the procedure in all criminal investigations in Portugal. The conclusions in the report of 10 September 2007 were the conclusions of an investigation carried out by the Portuguese and British police at the time, not those of some "rogue" cop, as many of you like to think.

As GA pointed out in his book, the possibility of a burglary gone wrong was also considered and not thought to be valid.

Based on what?

[jassi]

Based on what?

Based on the information available to them as the investigating police force, I imagine.

[Carana]

Based on the information available to them as the investigating police force, I imagine.

Wouldn't the investigation and exclusion of potential burglaries be in the files? If so, where? There are a few statements simply saying that people were aware of burglaries, but nothing to substantiate the exclusion of that scenario, nor anything to exclude any particular suspect that I have been able to find.