Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[Wonderfulspam]

Wouldn't the investigation and exclusion of potential burglaries be in the files? If so, where? There are a few statements simply saying that people were aware of burglaries, but nothing to substantiate the exclusion of that scenario, nor anything to exclude any particular suspect that I have been able to find.

They are paedo burglars aren't they?

Must be in the paedo files then.

[jassi]

Wouldn't the investigation and exclusion of potential burglaries be in the files? If so, where? There are a few statements simply saying that people were aware of burglaries, but nothing to substantiate the exclusion of that scenario, nor anything to exclude any particular suspect that I have been able to find.

We know that the released files are far from complete, so presumably the 'missing' information is amongst that  not  released.

[Brietta]

We know that the released files are far from complete, so presumably the 'missing' information is amongst that  not  released.

I don't think the information is there because I do not think the necessary diligence was carried out.  I think it unlikely that as full an investigation took place in 2007 into the culpability or clearing of the individuals of interest to the present inquiry as should have been merited. 

The only game in town seems to have been Dr Amaral, the chief investigator’s theory that the parents were responsible. 

This excluded all other avenues, as confirmed by Ricardo Paiva. 


Snip
Mr Paiva gave evidence at a legal hearing over a controversial book, written by his former boss, Goncalo Amaral.

He admitted that Mr Amaral's insistence that Madeleine died on May 3, 2007, meant the police investigation had failed to consider other options.

Mrs Duarte said they had not investigated any tip-offs since the case was officially shelved, in July 2008, when the McCanns were cleared as official suspects in the investigation.

She said information had continued to pour in from potential witnesses and even from other police forces in Europe, but was ignored, even when the clues including photographs of girls who looked like Madeleine.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250419/Portuguese-police-ignored-hundreds-sightings-search-Madeleine-McCann.html

[Montclair]

I don't think the information is there because I do not think the necessary diligence was carried out.  I think it unlikely that as full an investigation took place in 2007 into the culpability or clearing of the individuals of interest to the present inquiry as should have been merited. 

The only game in town seems to have been Dr Amaral, the chief investigator’s theory that the parents were responsible. 

This excluded all other avenues, as confirmed by Ricardo Paiva. 


Snip
Mr Paiva gave evidence at a legal hearing over a controversial book, written by his former boss, Goncalo Amaral.

He admitted that Mr Amaral's insistence that Madeleine died on May 3, 2007, meant the police investigation had failed to consider other options.

Mrs Duarte said they had not investigated any tip-offs since the case was officially shelved, in July 2008, when the McCanns were cleared as official suspects in the investigation.

She said information had continued to pour in from potential witnesses and even from other police forces in Europe, but was ignored, even when the clues including photographs of girls who looked like Madeleine.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250419/Portuguese-police-ignored-hundreds-sightings-search-Madeleine-McCann.html

I don't know how many times it must be said but Gonçalo Amaral was not the head investigator. In Portugal, the judges from the Ministério Público orientate investigations and give orders and authorisations to carry out any diligences. This is the same procedure in Spain, Italy and France. There were over a 100 policeman involved in the case and one coordinator did not make all of the decisions as to the orientation of the investigation. In Portugal, the police follow the evidence to see where it leads whereas, I'm beginning to wonder if SY decides before what has happened and then looks for evidence to fit the scenario.

As for the quote from Ricardo Paiva, he stated the contrary in the court room. He said that GA's book had no influence on the information received by the PJ afterwards, when the case had already been shelved. The tweet made from the court room by a British journalist, quoting Paiva, was incorrect but still so many McCann supportert keep on quoting it.

[Benice]

I don't know how many times it must be said but Gonçalo Amaral was not the head investigator. In Portugal, the judges from the Ministério Público orientate investigations and give orders and authorisations to carry out any diligences. This is the same procedure in Spain, Italy and France. There were over a 100 policeman involved in the case and one coordinator did not make all of the decisions as to the orientation of the investigation. In Portugal, the police follow the evidence to see where it leads whereas, I'm beginning to wonder if SY decides before what has happened and then looks for evidence to fit the scenario.

As for the quote from Ricardo Paiva, he stated the contrary in the court room. He said that GA's book had no influence on the information received by the PJ afterwards, when the case had already been shelved. The tweet made from the court room by a British journalist, quoting Paiva, was incorrect but still so many McCann supportert keep on quoting it.

Surely there must be one person in charge of the 'operational' side of the case.  It wouldn't work if several people - all on the same level were making decisions.  The Judge in the libel trial seemed to think that  Amaral was No.1 and that others were his subordinates.    The following quote appears to confirm that.

Quote

The Judge – Hierarchically, were you subordinated to Gonçalo Amaral?
TA said that Gonçalo Amaral was the Coordinator and he was under him.

The Judge – Were you Number 2?
TA says it can be said so.
Unquote

IMO the big mistake Amaral made was that he decided on day one who the perpetrators were and then tried to shoehorn in  'evidence' to fit that one theory to the exclusion of anything else.   His other big mistake IMO was not meeting or interviewing the McCanns himself.   I still find that an incomprehensible decision on his part.

Another huge mistake imo was to order that a tail be put on the UK police when they arrived and to have their every move reported back to him  - but to fail to put one on the McCanns when they hired a car.    If he had done that - he would either have caught them redhanded or proved that they did not move Madeleine's body in the car.        Think of how different things would have been if he had taken that rather obvious course of action - considering they were his only prime suspects.

[Truth]

doesnt matter anyway redmond is there now. in Pdl at the dig.

[Mr Gray]

I don't know how many times it must be said but Gonçalo Amaral was not the head investigator. In Portugal, the judges from the Ministério Público orientate investigations and give orders and authorisations to carry out any diligences. This is the same procedure in Spain, Italy and France. There were over a 100 policeman involved in the case and one coordinator did not make all of the decisions as to the orientation of the investigation. In Portugal, the police follow the evidence to see where it leads whereas, I'm beginning to wonder if SY decides before what has happened and then looks for evidence to fit the scenario.

As for the quote from Ricardo Paiva, he stated the contrary in the court room. He said that GA's book had no influence on the information received by the PJ afterwards, when the case had already been shelved. The tweet made from the court room by a British journalist, quoting Paiva, was incorrect but still so many McCann supportert keep on quoting it.

Amaral didnt understand what evidence was ...as the archiving statement confirms..

[Eleanor]

We have been told time and time again that Goncalo Amaral was The Coordinator, and that there was no other Coordinator available, so he must have been In Charge.  The Public Ministry can only view the information provided by The Coordinator.

If this is not true then exactly what is the job of The Coordinator?

[Alfred R Jones]

doesnt matter anyway redmond is there now. in Pdl at the dig.

Do you mean Redwood?

[Montclair]

We have been told time and time again that Goncalo Amaral was The Coordinator, and that there was no other Coordinator available, so he must have been In Charge.  The Public Ministry can only view the information provided by The Coordinator.

If this is not true then exactly what is the job of The Coordinator?

You obviously have no idea what a coordinator does in an investigation in Portugal, do you? There is a hierarchy, of course, but he is not a lead investigator as they exist in the UK. The coordinator normally does not go out on the field (although Gonçalo Amaral sometime did do this) and he does not do the actual investigation. He deals with the reports given to him by the inspectors, decides who goes out and for example which car they use, how much money they take, etc. but he does not decide which direction the investigation takes!!! Itis the evidence that leads the police not one chief inspector. I'm so tired of trying to tell you people how investigations are carried out in countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and you do not seem to want to understand.

[Brietta]

You obviously have no idea what a coordinator does in an investigation in Portugal, do you? There is a hierarchy, of course, but he is not a lead investigator as they exist in the UK. The coordinator normally does not go out on the field (although Gonçalo Amaral sometime did do this) and he does not do the actual investigation. He deals with the reports given to him by the inspectors, decides who goes out and for example which car they use, how much money they take, etc. but he does not decide which direction the investigation takes!!! Itis the evidence that leads the police not one chief inspector. I'm so tired of trying to tell you people how investigations are carried out in countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and you do not seem to want to understand.

Then why did Dr Amaral's theory, which is well documented not least by himself, take precedence over all other avenues of investigation?
The ins and outs of Portuguese procedure cannot disguise this and the outcome it had.

[jassi]

Then why did Dr Amaral's theory, which is well documented not least by himself, take precedence over all other avenues of investigation?
The ins and outs of Portuguese procedure cannot disguise this and the outcome it had.

Did other officers involved in the early investigation put forward alternative, opposing views to Amaral?

[Benice]

You obviously have no idea what a coordinator does in an investigation in Portugal, do you? There is a hierarchy, of course, but he is not a lead investigator as they exist in the UK. The coordinator normally does not go out on the field (although Gonçalo Amaral sometime did do this) and he does not do the actual investigation. He deals with the reports given to him by the inspectors, decides who goes out and for example which car they use, how much money they take, etc. but he does not decide which direction the investigation takes!!! Itis the evidence that leads the police not one chief inspector. I'm so tired of trying to tell you people how investigations are carried out in countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and you do not seem to want to understand.

That is certainly not the impression he gives in his book.

So who does decide which direction the investigation takes?  And on whose recommendations if that person is not part of the investigation themselves?

For instance - who decided to have the UK police followed?

I think it's nonsense to dispute that he was the Lead investigator.  There has to be one in every case making decisions and controlling the direction of the case based on them-  otherwise chaos would reign.

Are you saying the other police officers  Tavaras, Paivo etc. etc. were not his subordinates and could override him?

Why is he universally described as the man in charge of the case if he wasn't - but was just a glorified Amin. Clerk?

Too daft for words IMO.

[John]

I think Montclair is underplaying somewhat the role that Gonçalo Amaral had in this case and indeed the Cipriano case.  Amaral went to Praia da Luz and walked the streets making himself familiar with the environs and the people with the sole intention of formulating a theory.  He was actively involved in all the decision making and the events which led up to Robert Murat and then the McCanns being designated arguidos.  He goes into great detail about this in his book so if these claims are false then he lied.

I will also add that it is untrue to state that Amaral had from the outset decided that the McCanns did it and effectively failed to keep other options open.  We know this because Robert Murat became the prime suspect and that was ten days after Madeleine disappeared.  Thus by the 13 May the McCanns might have been suspected as having some involvement but were by no means the main suspects.  Our Russian friend also came under suspicion because of his links with Murat and the Ocean Club Garden premises.

[John]

It must always be remembered that Robert Murat didn't have his arguido status removed even after the formal questioning of the McCanns.  It is also well worth considering why the McCanns became suspects and later why the arguido status was removed.