Author Topic: So where was Smithman going to that night?  (Read 37157 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #135 on: May 20, 2014, 07:34:13 PM »
I see I have hit home, as usual. 8)-)))

you have missed completely...smith was in pdl the night of the abduction...it was all over the news...how long did it take for him to report his sighting...first instincts...dont be stupid

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #136 on: May 20, 2014, 08:59:52 PM »
There was virtual 100% certainty by the Wearside witnesses in Alvor, who supposedly recognised not only the father by way he walked, but also the mother by close-up facial recognition, and all that was 4 months after their sighting, just like the Smith recognition was also 4 months after. It demonstrates the mistaken transference phenomenon even more strongly than the Smith sighting does IMO.

Offline slartibartfast

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #137 on: May 20, 2014, 09:36:46 PM »
Only if you're desperate for them not to be imo.   Most normal people would take it from Smith's statement that they simply didn't agree with him that Gerry may have been the man they saw on the 3rd.   Martin Smith is the only one who wasn't sure.   If he was -  he would have said 100% not 60 to 80%.   

Most normal people would say there was no information. On what the others thought.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #138 on: May 22, 2014, 01:06:44 AM »
Of the peeps here, who believe the exact identification by Mr Smith is correct, is there a single one who can please at least hint why they think the similar identification by McCluskys, based on the same September TV news footage, is incorrect?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #139 on: May 22, 2014, 01:38:43 AM »
Of the peeps here, who believe the exact identification by Mr Smith is correct, is there a single one who can please at least hint why they think the similar identification by McCluskys, based on the same September TV news footage, is incorrect?

Have you got any pictures of who the McCluskys saw? What do they look like?
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #140 on: May 22, 2014, 01:59:24 AM »
Have you got any pictures of who the McCluskys saw? What do they look like?
I have no photos to hand. The claimed identification of the father was by the style of walking and carrying equalling that seen by the witnesses watching TV news over 4 months later. One source indicated that this was with a perceived virtually 100% certainty.

Offline misty

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #141 on: May 22, 2014, 02:24:48 AM »
Perhaps the Ukranian guy that McCluskey saw was Smithman, then.

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #142 on: May 22, 2014, 03:12:21 AM »
Perhaps the Ukranian guy that McCluskey saw was Smithman, then.
Well that's something that peeps, who think that identification by style of carrying is valid, would presumably consider. I was just trying to point out the inconsistency of some who embrace the Rua Escola identification as essentially being the exact solution of the case but do not even bother to mention this other identification which had a much higher confidence level yet was proven by PJ to be mistaken.

Offline slartibartfast

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #143 on: May 22, 2014, 07:13:29 AM »
Well that's something that peeps, who think that identification by style of carrying is valid, would presumably consider. I was just trying to point out the inconsistency of some who embrace the Rua Escola identification as essentially being the exact solution of the case but do not even bother to mention this other identification which had a much higher confidence level yet was proven by PJ to be mistaken.

But the Smithman identification has yet to be proved a mistake?
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline misty

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #144 on: May 22, 2014, 11:40:06 PM »
Well that's something that peeps, who think that identification by style of carrying is valid, would presumably consider. I was just trying to point out the inconsistency of some who embrace the Rua Escola identification as essentially being the exact solution of the case but do not even bother to mention this other identification which had a much higher confidence level yet was proven by PJ to be mistaken.

I would think the McCluskey sighting fell at the first hurdle when the blonde woman they witnessed was babbling in Portuguese.

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #145 on: May 22, 2014, 11:58:52 PM »
I would think the McCluskey sighting fell at the first hurdle when the blonde woman they witnessed was babbling in Portuguese.
To i.d. a man just by style of carrying with 100% certainty (Mcclusky) or xx% certainty (Smith), is impossible.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2014, 12:03:23 AM by pegasus »

Offline misty

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #146 on: May 23, 2014, 12:09:29 AM »
To say it's possible to i.d. a man just by style of carrying with 100% certainty (Alvor) or xx% certainty (PDL) is unscientific.

It's also scientifically impossible to produce a facial efit when you haven't seen someone's face. Yet, miraculously, it seems the Irish can defy science.

Offline pegasus

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #147 on: May 23, 2014, 12:28:53 AM »
It's also scientifically impossible to produce a facial efit when you haven't seen someone's face. Yet, miraculously, it seems the Irish can defy science.
There were 9 witnesses, 3 flew back May 26th, it might be 2 of the other 6 who did the e-fits?

Offline sadie

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #148 on: May 23, 2014, 12:49:47 AM »
Well that's something that peeps, who think that identification by style of carrying is valid, would presumably consider. I was just trying to point out the inconsistency of some who embrace the Rua Escola identification as essentially being the exact solution of the case but do not even bother to mention this other identification which had a much higher confidence level yet was proven by PJ to be mistaken.
Pegasus, I have much respect for your logic, but here, imo, your thought processes are flawed.


To compare the two:
Descending the steps from the aircraft to walking down the street the form of motion and dangers must be similar ... and they aren't. 

Two utterly different sorts of motion, one down steep steps, the other on a steady slope. 
Two utterly different sorts of dangers.

In the case of Gerry descending the steps of the aircraft, of course HE MUST LOOK DOWN, and of course HE MUST HOLD HIS SLEEPING SON IN THAT MANNER with a hand free in case he needs to grab the rail or further support his son.

In the case of Smithman he was walking along a paved roadway, with no overt danger, so he had no real reason to look down.  Seems he looked down cos he didn't want his face to be seen.  No other reason that I can think of..

Both were carrying their child in a manner thta we all do when they are sleeping, with the head over their shoulder and their breathing apparatus, mouth and nose, free to do the job necessary.    Also an easy way of carrying with the weight of the child mainly distributed over the carriers shoulder and body, rather than by his arms.

This is the way we all carry our sleeping children for a distance.  Tbh, it is potty to suggest otherwise.


No disrespect, Pegasus, but I think that your wishes for this man to be Gerry have overuled your normal analyses and perception

Offline misty

Re: So where was Smithman going to that night?
« Reply #149 on: May 23, 2014, 01:01:36 AM »
There were 9 witnesses, 3 flew back May 26th, it might be 2 of the other 6 who did the e-fits?

I can't see a statement which confirms that the witness clearly saw the face of the alleged man carrying the alleged child whose eyelids were closed. Can you?
I think a trouser efit would have been more in keeping with the statements.